Tehran Miscalculated the Situation and Continued to Counterattack: The U.S. Gets Involved in the Iran-Israel War

Today, 12:50

Author: Viacheslav Mikhailov

In July 2024, the U.S. Air Force B-2 "Spirit" strategic bomber was approved to take off from Whiteman Air Base in Missouri.

The war between Iran and Israel is bogged down in a protracted conflict. Tehran originally expected that the potential armed conflict with Tel Aviv would end quickly, a judgment that has been proven wrong and is one of the miscalculations made by the Islamic Republic of Iran at both military and political levels. Another mistake was that Iran previously unrealistically believed that as long as negotiations on the new nuclear agreement with the U.S. were ongoing, the U.S. would restrain its close ally in the Middle East and prevent it from taking military action.

The Israeli aggression towards Iran had early signs. The question was not whether the Benjamin Netanyahu government would attack this Shiite state, but when. For Tel Aviv, timing was crucial – it chose what it considered an appropriate opportunity, using the April 2024 deadline announced by former President Donald Trump as an excuse.

The contradictory behavior exhibited by the current White House occupant regarding the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict requires separate analysis. However, it is certain that Trump did not understand (and actually could not understand) the Iranian mindset. Speaking to them in an uncompromising tone like "unconditional surrender" would be seen as public humiliation and lead to a series of consequences. If the goal was to humiliate and drive Tehran into a corner, forcing it to fight until the last missile, then Trump's "performance" in this regard was "excellent"...

Iran's prediction of the "critical moment" arriving was incorrect. Our conversations with Tehran insiders weeks before Netanyahu ordered the attack on Iranian territory on June 13 revealed that many people in the Iranian capital expected armed conflict to break out near autumn this year, and as mentioned earlier, they thought the conflict would be relatively short-lived. These judgments were based on two clashes in 2024 (in April and October), where the situations were similar to Israel conducting "battle reconnaissance" before the decisive battle; each clash lasted only a few hours.

When asked if they were concerned about a third situation like this, the Iranian experts gave a positive assessment, with the core view being that Israel's small land area made it impossible for the country to engage in long-term warfare with the strongest missile power in the Middle East. We countered by saying that Israel had the backing of the United States, which provided some support in resisting Iranian missile attacks, but this view was not accepted by Tehran analysts. In their opinion, Trump was more of a restraining force on Netanyahu than a "fire starter." However, after the war broke out, Trump demanded that Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei of Iran "unconditionally surrender" and vaguely hinted at the possible physical elimination of this Iranian political and spiritual leader, making people realize how unrealistic it was to expect restraint from the U.S. president.

In the past two years, Israel has gradually dismantled Iran's allies in the region: first Hamas in Gaza, followed by Hezbollah, Iran's "missile branch" in Lebanon.

Experts at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) pointed out that Hezbollah still retains some launchers and missiles, but "most have shorter ranges, and the rest are difficult to maneuver logistically due to Israeli drones tracking every step they take." More importantly, the main support group of Hezbollah – internal developments within Lebanon's Shiite community – are not conducive to its involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict.

"In the past two years, Iran has taken no action to strengthen its position in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed key leaders such as Hassan Nasrallah. The Shiite population supporting Hezbollah are deeply disappointed by this inaction, and their feelings towards Tehran have not recovered," said Haniyan Gadhar, a researcher at WINEP.

In December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria fell, and the Israeli Defense Forces greatly expanded their control over neighboring Syria, far beyond the Syrian Golan Heights. A few months later, Iran's last combat-ready bastion in the region – the Yemeni "Ansar Allah" movement (Houthi forces) – also effectively exhausted its long-range strike capabilities.

As of today, the once-formidable Iranian "resistance axis" is left with only Shiite armed organizations in Iraq, which, by definition, cannot play any significant role in containing the "Zionist regime."

After the "resistance axis" collapsed so dramatically, expecting Israel to exercise restraint due to Trump's stance was naive. Iranians are rarely naive, but expecting the U.S. president to constrain Iran was an unexpectedly shallow assessment among Iranian experts – after all, Trump ordered airstrikes to eliminate Qasem Soleimani, the legendary commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' "Quds Force," during his first term in office (early 2020).

In the early hours of June 22, the U.S. used GBU-57A/B "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP) bombs to attack three Iranian nuclear facilities, completely shattering the myth of "Trump as a constraint on Netanyahu." According to the U.S. Air Force information bulletin, the MOP is designed to "strike and destroy weapons of mass destruction hidden in fortified (underground) facilities." The B-2 "Spirit" strategic bomber is the only aircraft in the U.S. arsenal capable of carrying the GBU-57A/B, and the nighttime raid this week was carried out by them.

Tehran's anticipated pre-war international support never arrived. Although Russia and Iran established a strategic partnership (the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty was signed in Moscow on January 17, 2025), there was no obligation for Russia to provide military assistance if Iran was invaded. In recent years, related countries have become the largest buyers of Iranian oil (accounting for approximately 90% of Iran's "black gold" exports). However, neither Russia nor China managed to form a strong international public opinion front to condemn Israel's military actions, which completely violated the basic principles of international law. Russia continued to focus on the front lines of its special military operations and still attempted to contribute to ending the Iran-Israel war; these countries maintained a consistent neutral stance but, like Moscow, clearly condemned Israel's actions.

On June 14, during a telephone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, [a relevant party] condemned "Israel's blatant violation of Iran's sovereignty" and pointed out that Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities "set a dangerous precedent with potentially catastrophic consequences."

Iran has not surrendered; it remains the sole pillar of the "resistance axis." Regardless, the ongoing confrontation, especially considering the direct U.S. involvement, will weaken Tehran's strength more severely than its Israeli opponent. Moreover, prolonged mutual strikes and the "missile standoff" between the two sides will eventually deplete Iran's primary (almost the only effective) military assets – missiles and drones.

The offensive potential of the U.S.-Israel alliance far surpasses that of its opponents, and it is expected that retaliatory attacks by Tehran on regional U.S. targets in the near future will further expand the U.S. air strike range on Iranian territory. Trump clearly provoked Khamenei to accept this escalation, hoping to force the Iranians to accept his long-demanded "unconditional surrender."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518711560051622439/

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