Today, let's talk about something more serious. A netizen asked me whether there will be a war between China and Japan in the next ten years? If so, what would be the outcome of the war? Can we win? We won't talk about bold statements like "nuking Tokyo," let's discuss it seriously.

If we look back 13 years ago, this topic was very much discussed. What happened in 2012, everyone should have some memory. At that time, China and Japan had intense confrontations over the Diaoyu Islands. However, when we look back, whether it was maritime or aerial confrontation, the conflicts were basically under control. Although there were many online voices advocating for action against Japan, the relationship between China and Japan has always been stable, without any extreme situations.

But now, it's hard to say. Why? Because Ishibashi Shigeru's party, the Liberal Democratic Party, suffered its first major defeat in 70 years, directly losing the majority seats in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. The Constitutional Democratic Party increased its seats from 9 to 22; the populist party, the Komeito, rose unexpectedly, increasing from 1 to 14 seats. Although the number of seats is not large, it's a very dangerous signal.

I have said before that after Trump was elected in 2017, he set a bad example for the world! Various extreme right-wing groups started to rise. Before, the image of candidates we often saw was that of people dressed in suits, with deep party roots, and practical and effective political proposals, which could win elections. After Trump, everything changed. You don't need too much foundation, even no specific proposals. Just shout slogans, the more extreme the better, turn to the right, and blame all the problems on the outside, blaming immigrants, and if you can't do that, just blame China! Argentina Trump, Brazil Trump, one Trump after another. It has become a replicable successful path!

Of course, this is related to the current world situation, but it's too complex to elaborate here. Let's discuss it at another opportunity. Back to the topic of China and Japan, the new opposition parties include an extremely radical party, the Komeito. Why is it dangerous?

Look at its political stance. Let's start with the least extreme one. It blames all of Japan's poor employment situation on immigrants, so it advocates expelling all foreign immigrants. Which country has the most immigrants in Japan? That's China, with about 950,000 Chinese living in Japan. Now, in Japan, there have already been vicious attacks on Chinese people. Think about it, isn't it similar to the days before the start of World War II?

Then comes the extreme part. This party advocates "Imperial Education," demanding the restoration of the Emperor's highest status, and the removal of content in textbooks that reflect on wartime actions. Does that sound familiar? Next, it denies history, denies the Nanjing Massacre, in short, it's the same rhetoric as the "East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere." Worshiping the gods, denying history, and then requiring the Self-Defense Forces to be renamed "Japanese Army," almost saying the restoration of the "Imperial Army"! The ideology of militarism is reviving in 2025!

At this point, someone says, you're making a big deal out of it, but it's only 14 seats, right? It can't cause much trouble! If you think that way, you are too naive. From a historical perspective, Japan's path to militarism began in 1919. A young man named Hiranuma Kazuo wrote a book called "The Japanese National Reform Plan," which quickly spread among the Japanese people and later became the action plan for Japanese militarism! At that time, the Japanese government was trying hard to break away from Asia and join Europe. This person, who was not taken seriously at the time, turned Japan into a "militaristic beast"! Think about it.

In reality, the Liberal Democratic Party has controlled both houses since 1955, for 70 years. Although Japan's economy once created miracles, it has been in a state of shrinkage for the past 10 years. I don't need to mention anything else. Have you seen "Crayon Shin-chan"? Shin-chan's father earns 340,000 yen per month, which is about 16,000 RMB. Ten years ago, this amount could easily support a whole family. Now, you have to pay for a house, a car, raise your wife and two children, plus a dog. We don't even need to calculate based on Japanese prices. Even if we compare it to China's first-tier cities, is this amount enough?

The long-term economic downturn has deeply affected the Japanese people. All of this is blamed on the Liberal Democratic Party. If you can't do it, then change the people! At this point, the loud slogans and the tendency toward extremism make the parties very attractive! Another issue is that the extremist parties have gained a foothold. The Liberal Democratic Party will find it difficult to push through policies. They will veto everything, and how can the economy be developed? The worse the economy, the louder the voice of the extremist parties! A vicious cycle.

Going this way, within 10 years, the Liberal Democratic Party will completely lose control of Japan. The extremist forces will rise completely, and it's not just one party like the Komeito! Once these people actually take power, can you imagine what it will be like? Plus, the US's strength is declining, and one day it will no longer be able to control Japan, and may even help Japan establish a normal army, because it needs to counter China. These are predictable outcomes. When the time is right, Japan will dig up the "militarism" from the trash heap of history. Conflicts between China and Japan will become unavoidable.

Facing such a Japan, can we talk to them calmly? As the netizen said, it's a matter of settling old and new grudges. But that's a bad strategy. Not fighting and defeating the enemy is a good method! That's why we held a grand military parade on the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan! To tell the Japanese far-right forces and all those with ill intentions, "look at China's current military strength!" Don't think you can act recklessly, you can't win. If you really fight, the People's Liberation Army will teach you a lesson!

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7531617264761340467/

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