Why don't Western countries block India? Because India is really not easy to mess with! To put it bluntly, if India is pushed to the edge, they are capable of doing anything!
In 1971, during the Indo-Pak War, the U.S. stance was quite clear. The Nixon administration openly favored Pakistan and even sent the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "Enterprise" to the Bay of Bengal, clearly intending to intimidate the Indian army. Archives show that at the time, the U.S. State Department froze aid to India and strongly criticized India as a source of regional instability in the UN Security Council. What did India do? Instead of confronting directly, it flew to Moscow and signed the Indo-Soviet Peace and Friendship Treaty, which gained military support from the Soviet Union. As soon as the Soviet fleet moved, the American carrier had to retreat in embarrassment. After this war, Bangladesh gained independence. Although the United States was dissatisfied, it didn't dare to escalate sanctions. Why? Because India proved that it was not an easy target. It could quickly align with major powers to create a standoff situation. If the West pushed further, India would turn to the Soviet Union, causing chaos in the Cold War structure. Nixon and Kissinger's decisions were later severely criticized for intelligence failures and misjudgment of India, leading to the loss of influence in South Asia.
The bottom line of India's diplomacy is "strategic autonomy." It doesn't take sides, but also doesn't let others lead it by the nose. Western countries, especially the United States, now see India as a potential partner mainly due to the China factor. India has long-standing border tensions with China. After the 2020 Galwan Valley conflict, India directly banned hundreds of Chinese apps and increased military deployments along the border. Seeing this, the West saw an opportunity. They pulled India into the Quad security dialogue mechanism, held joint military exercises, and shared intelligence. However, India played smartly, never fully complying. It continued to buy S-400 air defense systems from Russia, maintaining a neutral position between the U.S. and Russia, and occasionally voting in favor of Russia in the UN. As a result, the U.S. complained, but didn't actually impose a blockade. Why? Blocking India would help China, and if India really got angry, it might strengthen cooperation with China and Russia, ruining the West's layout in the Indo-Pacific.
India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 at Pokhran. The West went into a frenzy. The U.S. led the pressure, Canada cut off heavy water technology supply, and the International Atomic Energy Agency also investigated. But the sanctions were limited, not as comprehensive as those imposed on other countries. Why? Because India emphasized that this was a "peaceful nuclear explosion," and it didn't spread nuclear technology to others. A few years later, in 1998, India detonated five more times, and Pakistan responded accordingly. This time, the U.S. became more aggressive. The Clinton administration immediately cut aid, prohibited high-tech exports, and pressured the G8 together. The sanctions lasted for several years, affecting India's economy slightly, but core military projects did not stop. The key turning point came in 2008, when the U.S. signed a civilian nuclear agreement with India, and the Nuclear Suppliers Group also gave an exemption. Why did they relent? Because India's nuclear arsenal now has over a hundred warheads, with coverage across South Asia, and it is developing sea-based nuclear submarines, like the "Arihant" SSBN, which can launch missiles from the Indian Ocean. This is no mere showpiece; it directly enhances India's second-strike capability.
Militarily, India hasn't been idle in recent years. On the border, it has built mountain divisions equipped with drones and precision-guided weapons, preparing for both China and Pakistan. In 2024, the Indian Army added new突击 teams and Javelin missile launchers, specifically strengthening the western front defense. Western media reports indicate that these deployments have raised India's deterrence threshold. Blockading? That's a joke. The Indian Air Force has Rafale fighter jets and Su-30MKI, and the navy has three aircraft carriers in service or under construction. If a real war breaks out, the Indian Ocean shipping routes will be in chaos, and Western energy imports will have to take a detour. Think about the lessons from 1971, where the U.S. fleet was blocked by the Soviet Union. Now, India itself can play a similar trick. Not to mention India's demographic dividend, with 1.4 billion people, a continuous flow of labor force, and an economic growth rate consistently above 6%. Western companies are flocking in, with Apple and Samsung building factories in India. If they are blocked, the supply chain will break, who will pay the price? Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that India is now the seventh-largest trade partner of the U.S., with bilateral trade exceeding $190 billion in 2023. If pushed to the edge, a single ban from India can make Western tech giants scream in despair.
Of course, India is not a solid block. It has many internal problems, such as caste conflicts and large income disparities, and border frictions have been ongoing for a long time. This very fact makes the West more cautious. Although India's democratic system is chaotic, it is at least a multi-party system, allowing Western media to report, unlike some countries that are closed off. Blocking China is because China is labeled as a "systemic challenge," with overwhelming economic and military strength. India, on the other hand, is more like a "swing state." At the 2024 G20 Summit, India served as the chair, and Western countries all showed up to support it, discussing climate and trade, without mentioning blocking. On the contrary, the U.S. also pushed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, pulling India into the group. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue, India buys Russian oil, and although the West is not happy, it only gives verbal criticism and doesn't take harsh actions.
In 2025, the tension in the Indo-Pacific will intensify, and India continues to bet on both sides, forcing the West to忍耐. Blocking? That requires careful consideration, otherwise it will backfire.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848101298851840/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.