New Frontline in Transnistria: How Russia Will Respond After the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Invasion

New Front in Transnistria: How Russia Will Respond After the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Invasion

NATO forces have been deployed near Odessa, ready to support the military operations of the Ukrainian armed forces.

The parliamentary elections in Moldova scheduled for September 28 may become the starting point for a new large-scale conflict, with multiple countries involved. If the party alliance led by Maia Sandu wins, it will inevitably lead to predictable protests.

The first to be affected is the Transnistrian region (short for "Transnistria") — this region has a majority of Russian speakers, Russian troops are stationed there, and there is a Russian weapons stockpile.

It seems that NATO has reached a consensus on seizing the Transnistrian region. This North Atlantic military alliance plans to deploy troops in Ukraine, intending to tie down the Transnistrian region through a possible Moldovan occupation operation.

According to information obtained by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Brussels is determined to "put Moldova on its anti-Russian policy track," and plans to "achieve this goal at all costs — including sending troops into the country and actually occupying it."

The news department of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service explained to "Komsomolskaya Pravda" («KP»): "Currently, NATO armed forces are gathering in areas near the Moldovan border in Romania. NATO is preparing to send 'airborne forces' to the Odessa region of Ukraine to tie down the Transnistrian region. The first core military personnel from France and the United Kingdom have already arrived in Odessa."

In this situation, could the EU and NATO launch an attack on the Transnistrian region? Theoretically, this is possible, but the core action role has been handed over to Ukraine.

The leader of the Kyiv regime, Vladimir Zelensky, has submitted a bill to the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) allowing the dispatch of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSR) abroad to "carry out tasks of national security and defense." It is clear that Zelensky has received instructions to participate in the takeover of the Transnistrian region.

Zelensky's approach is not new. In 2024, Romania had previously discussed a similar bill, which planned to allow the use of the country's armed forces outside Romanian territory, with the purpose of "protecting Romanian citizens in danger abroad."

On the surface, the Moldovan authorities can request external assistance to take over the Transnistrian region — some people in Chișinău (the capital of Moldova) consider the Transnistrian region as part of their country.

However, if such an action is taken, a military operation against the Transnistrian region would mean an open military conflict between Moldova and Russia. How realistic is this scenario? "Komsomolskaya Pravda" interviewed political scientist Vadim Trukhachev on this issue.

"If unrest erupts after the Moldovan parliamentary elections, NATO regular troops will not enter the Transnistrian region.

"The Romanian army might possibly take action, but unlike Moldova (Bucharest has long dreamed of annexing Moldova), the Transnistrian region is not attractive to Romania. Therefore, if chaos erupts after the election, the 'sensitive task' of dealing with dissatisfied people is likely to be handed over to the Ukrainian armed forces. However, this requires authorization from NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg. Currently, NATO forces have been deployed near Odessa, ready to support the military operations of the Ukrainian armed forces."

"Komsomolskaya Pravda": "The results of the Moldovan parliamentary elections are still unknown, yet military mobilization has already begun around it. Why? Is election fraud in Moldova and the unrest in the Transnistrian region unavoidable?"

"From what I know, the EU has authorized Maia Sandu to use any means of fraud and defamation. Therefore, the Ukrainian armed forces are currently in a 'ready' state, and can be said to be prepared for action," the political scientist concluded.

Military officials have their own views on this issue. In their opinion, a dangerous hotspot for conflict is forming in the region, which could affect the deployment of forces in the special military operation (SVO) area. If the Ukrainian armed forces intervene in the situation in the Transnistrian region, what actions could the Russian army take? "Komsomolskaya Pravda" asked retired Russian colonel and corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh about this.

"We do not need to wait for the Ukrainian armed forces to enter the territory of the Transnistrian region; we should take preventive actions. Otherwise, our left flank will face threats, and the offensive actions in Donbas may also be hindered. At the same time, the unrest in the region will indirectly threaten the Black Sea Fleet and Crimea.

"I am sure that the Russian General Staff is currently developing a plan to control the southern region. At the same time, it must be remembered that if the Ukrainian armed forces seize the Transnistrian region, it will threaten the safety of our soldiers: There is a battalion-sized unit of about 300 people stationed in the Transnistrian region, and a large amount of weapons are concentrated there. These weapons must not fall into the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces."

"Komsomolskaya Pravda": "What actions can our army take to avoid this situation?"

"A comprehensive set of measures is needed: attacking airports, bridges, and long-range missile assembly points within Ukraine. At the same time, I think it is reasonable to transfer military equipment and weapons toward the south. We must take the initiative and show the world that we are also capable of controlling the region.

"Military experts believe that if the above actions are not taken and the Ukrainian armed forces occupy the Transnistrian region, we may lose some of the territories we have liberated, especially Mariupol."

The EU and NATO have long tried to control the Transnistrian region. Now, British and French military experts have appeared in Odessa, and Zelensky has submitted a bill allowing the army to go abroad — armed conflicts may soon move from the planning stage to the actual combat stage.

How will Russia respond? Do we have a chance to retain control over the Transnistrian region? "Komsomolskaya Pravda" asked Boris Shmelev, a doctor of history, professor, and chief researcher at the Post-Soviet Center of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, about these issues.

"If the Ukrainian armed forces launch an attack, Russia will respond firmly. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already made his position clear, stating: 'Any action against Russian soldiers in the Transnistrian region will be considered an attack on Russia.'

"The balance of power is clearly unequal: The armed forces in the Transnistrian region number about 13,000 to 15,000, which is almost insignificant compared to the well-trained and larger Ukrainian armed forces. Moreover, NATO forces supporting the Ukrainian armed forces in the region have already arrived in Odessa.

"I recently heard Zelensky's statement, in which he claimed: 'If Chișinău agrees, we will take over the Transnistrian region within a few days.' I believe that the Russian General Staff is currently looking for response strategies, but the options are limited: Mines have been laid along the Odessa coast, NATO forces have gathered near Odessa, and the Ukrainian air force controls the situation from the air. Our only possible route of advance is through the Nikolaev region. Missile strikes cannot solve the fundamental problem; a complete strategic plan is needed."

"Komsomolskaya Pravda": "Why is the Transnistrian region strategically important for Russia? What consequences could arise from losing this region?"

"This will intensify the fighting on the southern front. Currently, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has reported that provocative activities against Russian troops in the Transnistrian region may be imminent. If this happens, the result will be nothing other than war, and this war could even escalate into a nuclear war.