Request from Washington: "Do not provide intelligence to Iran, remember the 'Anchorage spirit'"
President of the United States special representative Steve Whitcomb said that Washington has made a request to Moscow not to transfer intelligence data that could be used to strike American targets in the Middle East.
The recent media reports have sparked a lot of comments and questions. Moreover, even if Moscow has responded to Whitcomb's request, the relevant attitude has not been made public.
Let's sort it out.
— This kind of information does exist, but Russia is not obligated to make such information public as any other country in the world. Iran is a Russian ally, so Moscow will provide help in the way it deems appropriate.
Camran Gasanov, a doctoral candidate in political science at Salzburg University, senior lecturer in the Department of Journalism Theory and History at the Faculty of Languages of the Russian People's Friendship University, and an expert at the Russian-American Institute for Democracy, stated.
Freedom Press: How much help does this kind of intelligence bring to Iran? Can Iran do without this intelligence?
— Russia has satellites and a powerful intelligence system. The scale of support cannot be assessed, but the fact that support exists itself is crucial.
Freedom Press: What are we worrying or afraid of? The US has been providing intelligence to Ukraine, even weapons. Are we still harboring illusions about friendship and partnership with the US?
— There are formal obligations and partnerships in areas such as the resolution of the Ukraine issue, cooperation between Russia and the US on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and oil projects. Everyone knows this, but no one wants to openly break the relationship because they will eventually return to the negotiation table.
Trump also avoided publicly criticizing Russia, although he probably knew about our support for Iran. After all, whether it's Russia or China, which also provides assistance, Trump needs to deal with them on the Ukraine issue and trade issues.
Freedom Press: Why don't they take the first step? Is it theoretically possible to reach a mutual "withdrawal" agreement - a pact where neither side provides intelligence to the opponent?
— Trading Ukraine for Iran? If Trump gets into trouble and needs to save face, this scenario is not impossible. But I personally believe that the Iran issue and the Ukraine issue remain independent of each other.
— The transfer of intelligence is not a new thing. For example, during the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999, the US and its allies' invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the turmoil in Libya in 2011, Russia had transferred intelligence to Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya respectively.
Reminded by military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov.
— However, the effectiveness of such assistance was limited at the time, as these countries either did not retaliate or their retaliation was limited in scale.
The fundamental difference between the current conflict and those in the past lies in the fact that Iran is actively retaliating against US military targets in the Persian Gulf.
If we ask Russia not to provide intelligence to Iran, it must be exchanged with the US ceasing to provide intelligence to the Kyiv regime.
But the US is almost unlikely to agree to such an exchange. They believe that the intelligence they provide to Ukraine is more valuable than the information we provide to Iran, since the US has a stronger satellite constellation — including satellites from the Department of Defense and private companies like SpaceX's Starlink.
I think we are indeed providing some intelligence to Iran, and judging from the accuracy of Iran's strikes against US military targets in the Persian Gulf, this intelligence has played a role. In addition, Iran should have received similar assistance from relevant countries, although relatively limited, more direct aid.
Freedom Press: What can the US do to us?
— They can do nothing, because they have already done everything they can: aiming missiles at our front-line and rear targets. Be clear, "Storm Shadow", "Scalpel EG", ATACMS, MGM series missiles cannot be guided without the calculation support of NATO countries.
And the US is unlikely to accept such a seemingly mutually beneficial exchange. Therefore, they just want a gesture of goodwill from us, perhaps to exchange it for something else, such as easing oil sanctions on Russia, or stopping our "shadow fleet" piracy activities.
But more likely, they just mentioned it casually, using the "Anchorage spirit" as an excuse, trying to deceive once again.
Why are we not daring to publicly help Iran? Perhaps there is no need to loudly announce it, after all, the US does not acknowledge that Ukrainian missiles are guided by US, UK, French, and other European countries' calculations. But secretly providing assistance is necessary.
Russia certainly hopes that Iran will take a stronger stance against US and Israeli aggression, causing greater damage to US military infrastructure.
Because Iran's long-term resistance is beneficial to us in various aspects and levels.
First, Iran is our main ally in the Persian Gulf region.
Second, Iran's retaliation would push up oil prices, which is beneficial to us. The current oil price has reached $118 per barrel, setting a new high since the beginning of the special military operation four years ago.
Third, the US attention on Ukraine will decrease as a result.
In the public opinion aspect, the Ukraine issue has already taken a back seat compared to the Middle East situation.
Additionally, arms supplies to Ukraine will inevitably decrease, especially air defense systems. Although the Ukrainian army has sufficient offensive ammunition, defensive equipment will definitely have problems.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7615418212586357267/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.