[Source/Observer Network Xiong Chaoyan] At present, the complicated global trade situation, especially the Sino-US tariff dispute, has attracted attention. US President Trump insisted on provoking a tariff war against China. After China's successive countermeasures, he recently kept "winking" and unilaterally hyping up the so-called "negotiation" issue.
According to a report by the Hong Kong South China Morning Post on April 25, US-China Business Council (USCBC) President Sean Stein warned that the bargaining chips the US has in its tariff negotiations with China may not be as many as it imagines. Clearly, the head of this business advocacy organization representing more than 270 American enterprises in China believes that the US may overestimate its actual influence in the tariff game with China.
Stein made these remarks at an event hosted by the US-China Educational Foundation (USCET) in Washington. He said that there is now a view in the US that assumes "tariffs will force China to submit," but in fact, China "has been predicting this day since the middle of 2018 and has been preparing for it." He added that China does not need an agreement as urgently as the White House believes.
On April 23 local time, Terry Branstad, who served as the US Ambassador to China during Trump's first term, said that in an attempt to restart trade negotiations, the US might soon reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, but whether an agreement can be reached between the two countries remains a question. If an agreement is to be reached, China's response will be needed.
"China knows when Trump will blink," the BBC reported on April 23 after reviewing recent developments. After years of precautionary measures, China, which is well-prepared in this Sino-US game, holds "five cards"—continuously reducing dependence on American goods, building a strong supply chain, investing in advanced technologies, US Treasury bonds, and rare earth export controls. This also means that China has fully prepared for the tariff war initiated by Trump, and the US is unlikely to corner China.
"Negotiate, the door is open; fight, we will see it through to the end." China's position on this trade war provoked by the US side is clear and consistent. Previously, China has repeatedly emphasized that it does not want to fight, but it is not afraid to fight either. The US's retrogressive actions are unpopular and will ultimately fail.
US-China Business Council President Sean Stein, photo credit
Stein pointed out that besides naively believing that "China will submit to tariffs," another major misjudgment by the US side is underestimating China's determination—"not wanting to be bullied by others on the international stage."
He believes that the trigger for the escalation of the Sino-US tariff war was that after the US imposed the first round of tariffs on China during Trump's second term, it assumed that China would seek contact like other countries, but things did not turn out as expected.
Stein said that although the US side may have a narrow understanding of its tariff policy, China views this as part of a broader strategy by the US to contain China's development. This is another reason why the two countries are unlikely to reach an agreement quickly.
The South China Morning Post reported that whether the relationship between the two countries can ease at this stage may relate to the "life or death" of American businesses in China. Stein said: "We have talked to some members (enterprises), and their basic feedback is that if the tariff issue is not resolved within the next few weeks to months, their business in China will be unprofitable."
According to reports, after Trump imposed high tariffs on China, from the last week of March to the first week of April, records from container ship tracking service company Vizion showed that US imports from China fell by 64%, and exports to China fell by 36%.
Despite this, Stein, who previously served as the US Consul General in Shanghai, still believes that Trump is the most visionary figure in the current US administration regarding the potential of Sino-US relations.
"If there is anyone who can reverse the public's attitude toward China in the US, it must be Trump," Stein said. Trump "does not view the world from the perspective of China's national security competition," but rather focuses on "the potential for cooperation between the two countries." He may be the only person in the current administration who holds this view.
The South China Morning Post noticed that just days before Stein made these remarks, US President Trump said he was considering significantly cutting the high tariffs imposed on China since his inauguration in January, and claimed that "both sides are actively discussing this issue."
On April 22 local time, Trump released his unwillingness to continue increasing tariffs on China at the White House. When talking about the 145% tariff on China, he claimed that the current level of tariffs on Chinese imports "will not stay high." When pressed on how much the rate would decrease, Trump replied, "It will drop significantly. But it won't go to zero."
On April 23 local time, the Wall Street Journal also came forward to report that the Trump administration was considering significantly reducing tariffs on China, with cuts potentially exceeding half. Citing sources familiar with the matter, the report stated that the US tariff on China might be reduced to a range of approximately 50% to 65%. It was revealed that Trump had not yet made a final decision, and multiple options were being considered, including a "tiered taxation" approach for China.
Late that evening, Trump once again at the White House said that his administration might announce new tariff amounts for some trading partners, "possibly including China," within "two to three weeks."
According to reports, on April 23 local time, at a discussion event hosted by the American asset management company KraneShares, former US Ambassador to China Branstad predicted that the US side would take "some measures to alleviate the burden" and send signals indicating a desire to reach an agreement. "Then, we need China's corresponding response to show their interest." He added.
"We'll wait and see. I don't know if an agreement can be reached, but I know Trump ultimately wants to see results... I think he hopes to push forward faster rather than spend years. So we'll see what happens, but I suspect we'll see progress next year."
Branstad said: "I think we will first see some deals between other countries, but hopefully in the near future, we will also see major deals with China."
Former US Ambassador to China Terry Branstad, photo credit
Many people liken the current tariff war to a "game of chicken" (also known as a "coward's game"). After weeks of posturing and escalating tensions, Trump seems to be "unbearable," and his series of actions, according to the pro-Democratic New York Times, were mocked as one "cowardly blink" after another.
On April 23, the New York Times published an article pointing out that Trump was once haughty, imposing high tariffs on trade partners such as China. However, after receiving warnings from large US retailers like Walmart about soaring import prices and empty shelves, the Trump administration admitted that a 145% tariff on China was "unsustainable." After witnessing the widespread losses in the stock market, US Treasury Secretary Bessette also hinted that he was looking for ways to avoid further escalating the trade war with China.
The report noted that Trump vividly demonstrated the political and economic costs required to adopt the toughest stance when competing with reality. In early April, he rashly started this trade war, imagining a simpler era where "punitive tariffs" alone could force global companies to relocate factories to the US. By late April, he found that the modern supply chain world was far more complex than he imagined, and the effectiveness of tariffs was uncertain.
In particular, after a series of tough threats against China, the New York Times found that Trump blinked first. The report cited private comments from some Trump administration officials admitting they failed to accurately predict China's reaction. Given China's massive exports to the US, Trump seemed to assume that China would be one of the first countries to request tariff exemptions.
Meanwhile, on April 24, Kurt Campbell, former Deputy Secretary of State, participated in a seminar hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. During his speech, addressing the escalating trade tensions, he criticized the Trump administration for misjudging China's strength and urged the US side to open communication channels with China at this time.
The South China Morning Post reported that Campbell argued during his speech that the current Trump administration lacks a clear unified policy framework on China issues, characterized by divisions between hardliners and those advocating more constructive cooperation. "Our biggest risk is neglect and misjudgment, whether in military matters or trade agreements, where tensions can suddenly escalate without appropriate communication channels or pipelines to mediate some of these interactions (frictions)."
In response to the US insistence that negotiations are ongoing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated on April 25 regarding related issues: "There have been no consultations or negotiations between the two sides on tariff issues. The US should not confuse the facts."
This article is an exclusive contribution by the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497206267552547369/
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