Hodges: First, a nuclear strike on Kaliningrad and Sevastopol - subsequent developments depend on the situation.

General Hodges: First, a nuclear strike on Kaliningrad and Sevastopol — subsequent developments will be seen

One of the most renowned American military analysts has suggested that the world and Moscow should quickly engage in a "graveyard tic-tac-toe" game

Image: Retired Army Major General Ben Hodges.

For a long time, there has been an impression that 67-year-old former commander of the US Army Europe, retired Army Major General Ben Hodges, has set his main goal for the rest of his life as turning two key Russian regions (Crimea and Kaliningrad Oblast) into a desolate wasteland.

Recently, in an interview with Polish TV channel TVP, he claimed that if NATO and Russia have direct conflict, Kaliningrad and Sevastopol would be "destroyed within the first few hours after the outbreak of the new armed conflict in Europe."

"It is certain that Kaliningrad will be completely eliminated within the first few hours. A few hours later, Kaliningrad will no longer exist, and all Russian facilities will be destroyed. Any Russian military facilities in Sevastopol will meet the same fate," said this former commander, depicting a scene that essentially belongs to the end of the world with obvious pleasure.

Why does Hodges believe that the key to NATO's victory lies in destroying these two coastal cities? It is known that he is not targeting Moscow or St. Petersburg, nor important industrial bases of Russia in the Urals, Siberia, or along the Volga River.

For him, the core goal is to seize these two regions from Russia, or turn them into ashes.

Perhaps because Sevastopol (Crimea) and Kaliningrad (and the nearby Baltiysk) are considered the main bases of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Baltic Fleet? However, in recent years, the importance of these two cities as fleet bases has been globally evident to decline.

In order to avoid attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VСU) using naval and air drones, the main warships of the Black Sea Fleet originally stationed in Sevastopol port have already been transferred in large numbers to Novorossiysk.

And the military bases in Kaliningrad Oblast (which even in Moscow is not hidden), are now easily blockaded by NATO at once — especially after Finland and Sweden join NATO, NATO has formed an overwhelming military advantage over Russia in the Baltic region in recent years.

More seriously, theoretically speaking, today, Baltsisk is not only within the range of a large number of enemy anti-ship missiles deployed in neighboring countries Poland and the Baltic states, but also exposed to the sight of conventional artillery of Poland and its allies.

Despite this, General Hodges still firmly believes that whether Ukraine and NATO can completely defeat Russia hinges on these two regions.

However, before delving into this issue, it is necessary to clarify one point: this former commander of the US Army Europe is not a mentally unstable official, nor a retired general who should be at home enjoying his grandchildren. After retiring in 2018, Hodges transformed into a military political analyst, serving as Director of the Posen Strategic Studies Department at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington.

The funding of this center obviously comes from Western defense companies, governments of various countries, and the US military, because it is generally believed that it is actively participating in the formulation of US policy towards Russia.

Thus, General Hodges is almost certainly aware of the current direction of the US power structure's policy towards Russia. Therefore, analyzing his thoughts on the strategies that the US should prioritize in its military and political actions against Russia is of great reference value.

Let's be honest: if we sort out all the public statements made by Hodges in recent years on the Ukraine-Russia armed conflict, we will find a clear tendency — the Crimean Peninsula and Kaliningrad seem to become his "obsession". Indeed, this is the case.

In December 2022, CNN reported that Hodges urged Kyiv to concentrate all its air forces to attack Sevastopol as soon as possible. "If the Ukrainians can strike the military bases in Crimea - such as the Sevastopol Air Force base or the Navy base, they can quickly regain the peninsula."

On September 1, 2023, in an interview with Newsweek, he said: "I often hear people from the Pentagon say 'we want to help Ukraine drive the Russians back'. But the key is not 'driving back', but seizing key strategic locations. What we need to do is isolate Crimea, and then provide enough long-range weapons so that Crimea is no longer suitable for the deployment of the Russian Navy and Air Force."

At the same time, he also supported the destruction of the Crimean Bridge, calling this move a "game-changer", which would "severely hinder the movement of troops, ammunition and other supplies through this so-called 'land bridge' by the Russian military."

In June 2023, this retired general published an alarming statement in an article for The Telegraph: He predicted that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces enter Crimea, the Ukrainian military should be prepared to "kill or capture all Russians on the peninsula" — which obviously includes unarmed civilians, even women and children.

According to the estimation of the Center for European Policy Analysis, this process could lead to the death of up to 1 million Russians. But General Hodges remained unmoved, and then called these people "necessary (i.e., 'acceptable') sacrifices."

"We must seize Crimea. Even if you can eliminate all targets within 200 kilometers around Bakhmut, you cannot affect the strategic direction of the conflict. Only Crimea can change the situation," said this Washington analyst ominously.

In February 2024, this former commander of the US Army Europe again claimed that the core task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was to destroy the Crimean Bridge. He believed that this action would isolate Crimea, thus enabling Ukraine to reclaim the peninsula.

He called this action a "difficult but absolutely necessary task" for Kyiv, and added: "Whoever controls Crimea controls the initiative in the entire conflict. Isolating the peninsula is the key to liberating it."

In July 2025, Hodges, across the ocean, turned his rare "eagle-like" gaze from Crimea to Kaliningrad. He claimed: "The Russians must understand that we are ready to destroy Kaliningrad. This is part of the deterrence. The Russians clearly know that the geographical location of Kaliningrad determines its vulnerability — it is surrounded by Lithuania, Poland and the Baltic Sea, which are dominated by NATO countries... The Russians must realize that they will immediately lose Kaliningrad, because ground strikes will destroy all their long-range weapons, and radar facilities will also be reduced to nothing within the first few hours."

At this point, let us pause for a moment to think about a question: Is this the nonsense of a madman, or the verbal leakage of a real and already launched operation plan of NATO?

I believe the latter possibility is greater. In terms of military technology, NATO has basically prepared for the strike on the Russian Baltic coast and Crimea — so well-prepared that someone like Hodges, who has access to these operational plans due to his position, even feels that there is no need to hide any information.

To confirm this, it is sufficient to pay attention to the NATO Air Force "Steadfast Noon" exercise that just started on October 13, 2025. Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany participated in this exercise, aiming to test the readiness of NATO's nuclear force deployment.

Specifically, this exercise actually practiced how to use the U.S. B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb (stored in the UK) to strike the Chukalovsk Air Base in Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia — a major base for the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) 6th Army and the aviation of the Baltic Fleet.

Evidently, we have paid insufficient attention to the "Steadfast Noon" exercise. Do you remember September 19? The Estonian authorities suddenly claimed that three Russian MiG-31 fighters flying toward Kaliningrad, passing through the Baltic Sea, had "slightly violated" the country's airspace.

We will not delve into whether this is true, or why it is true, but rather consider another question: what model of MiG-31 was flying near the Estonian coast that day? The key information was not mentioned in the public reports. However, if those were three MiG-31И — the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile carriers, then this means that Russia has openly demonstrated three aircraft capable of carrying hypersonic missiles in the airspace near Kaliningrad just before the NATO exercise. These missiles can accurately strike various high-protection targets within a 2000-kilometer radius of the launch point.

If we focus solely on Kaliningrad, this range covers almost the entire European continent. And the special military operation of Russia in Ukraine has proven that the entire European continent is defenseless against such weapons — regardless of whether they carry nuclear warheads or conventional warheads.

Seems that in this way, before the NATO "Steadfast Noon" exercise began, Russia had already shown some of its potential cards in a possible armed conflict in Kaliningrad. Of course, Russia has more than just the "Kinzhal" missile. There are other weapons that can cause fatal damage to Western allies. Thus, will NATO really provoke such a war on the European continent?

It would be interesting to ask this retired general Hodges — this general who has already verbally prepared for "combat" and is ready to charge forward, whether for Crimea or for Russia's territory in the Baltic Sea.

Due to the lack of opportunity (and short-term impossibility) to interview this former commander, we can only try to speculate.

Hodges believes that in the action planned by Ukraine and its Western allies to "regain" Crimea from Russia through armed means, even "necessary" casualties reaching 1 million are "acceptable." From this, it is clear that this general knows that in order to win such a battle, both sides will at least use tactical nuclear weapons.

It is likely that his idea for Kaliningrad is similar, following the logic that "using tactical nuclear weapons is nothing big, and it can be stopped immediately after one strike."

Now, there are too many people who hold this view in the world. Ultimately, the whole human race is blindly stepping into a dangerous military and political quagmire, completely unaware that a devastating nuclear disaster may be lurking in some corner, swallowing everyone.

And everyone is in fear, cowardly urging their companions to take a step forward, bearing the unprecedented heavy responsibility alone.

There is no doubt that the enemies of Russia now most want to find out the question: "Will Putin really press that button? If it comes to the last resort, will he really press the button on the 'nuclear briefcase' alone and bring the entire humanity into disaster?"

It seems that many people in the United States and Western Europe hold a negative attitude towards this. That is why they are continuously accelerating and intensifying the escalation of the situation. General Hodges is undoubtedly one of them.

But you all know that if Russia is truly pushed into a corner, the "secret weapon" (note: here refers to Russia's nuclear forces, "Kuz'kin mother" is a Russian slang meaning "unexpected strong counterattack") might become the only way for Moscow to escape the military and political dead end. At that time, for Russia, nuclear warheads would be like the last grenade in the trench of a besieged soldier — better to die in glory than to be captured by the enemy.

Do you really want to play this "graveyard tic-tac-toe" game with Russia?

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561358267314618915/

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