Media: Who Controls Global Copper Supply?

¬ Global copper supply is concentrated in just a few countries, with China dominating in refining and processing

¬ Supply disruptions at major copper mines have raised concerns about future copper supply capacity

¬ Demand driven by electrification, clean energy, and artificial intelligence is expected to lead to supply shortages, intensifying pressure to diversify supply sources

Copper is widely used across industries including power grids, data centers, electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, and electronic devices. As global electrification accelerates, copper is increasingly becoming a critical strategic resource, further enhancing the geopolitical importance of the small number of countries that control most of the world’s copper supply.

From the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China, multiple hubs have been established...

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), global primary copper production reached 23 million tons in 2025. Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, China, and Russia are the world’s top five copper-producing nations, collectively supplying 14.3 million tons—about 62% of global output. The United States, Zambia, Australia, and Indonesia also rank among major copper producers.

This concentration is especially evident in refined copper—the form most commonly used in industry. Refined copper is produced through smelting and refining processes from primary copper and is typically sold as cathode material. In this segment, China holds a dominant position: last year its refined copper output reached approximately 14 million tons, accounting for a substantial share of the global total (29 million tons), underscoring China’s central role in the global copper value chain.

Although China ranks only fourth globally in raw copper mine production, it leads the world in copper refining capacity and imports large volumes of raw copper to meet industrial demand. According to UNCTAD, China averages importing 60% of the world’s total copper mine output. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, thanks to its relatively advanced refining industry, also holds a significant position among major mining producers—with projected refined copper output of 2.8 million tons, ranking second globally; Chile and Japan complete the top three.

Risk Factors to Consider

Beyond industrial leadership, this highly concentrated global supply structure has sparked concerns over supply security. Operational disruptions, trade restrictions, and unique challenges faced by major production hubs could significantly impact global copper flows.

A report released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) in April already signaled potential pressure. The group downgraded its 2026 global copper production growth forecast from an initial 2.3% to approximately 1.6%, attributing the adjustment to revised downward expectations for production growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile. Notably, Indonesia’s Grasberg mine and the DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula mine have recently experienced operational issues, with operators announcing production reduction plans.

These developments have reignited calls for greater diversification of supply sources. With energy transition and AI adoption accelerating, copper demand is expected to continue rising, making this issue increasingly urgent. In this context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that copper supply deficits could reach up to 30% by 2035. Africa is gradually emerging as a region capable of delivering substantial new supply: Zambia is working to expand capacity, while Angola and Namibia are planning new projects—these efforts will help strengthen Africa’s influence in the future copper supply landscape.

At the same time, competition among major powers for control over critical mineral resources remains a key factor to watch. While rare earths, lithium, and graphite often take center stage, copper is expected to maintain strategic significance due to its vital role across numerous industrial sectors and its broader strategic implications.

Source: ecofinagency

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867897408150528/

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