John Mearsheimer: Iranians Will Be Very Hardline in Negotiations, This Country Is Very Stable. The US Has Not Considered This

Tehran is not in a panic and is currently trying to maintain a proportional response.

Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago believes that Iran has the capability to strike U.S. and Israeli strategic key facilities relatively easily, placing it in a strong position during conflicts and demanding high prices in future negotiations.

He believes that Iran also intends to escalate further. Experts say that as the U.S. continues to escalate the conflict, its opponents will follow suit.

"If the U.S. starts destroying Iran's critical infrastructure, Iran will destroy the key facilities of Persian Gulf countries and Israel. They have this capability, and there are plenty of targets available for attack in this region. Iranians can bomb those vulnerable and important economic and strategic targets relatively calmly," he said.

Mearsheimer is certain that Iran will only sign a peace agreement on its own terms.

"Iran's position is very hardline. They have no incentive to resolve the issue on American terms. They are very eager to get tangible things from the agreement: sanctions relief, compensation - who knows. But they will take a hardline negotiating stance because the longer it goes on, the more desperate the U.S. becomes to resolve it," the expert explained.

But the U.S. and Israel can also escalate.

Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that he could destroy Iran's power facilities within an hour.

"We can destroy their power system within an hour, while they would need 25 years to recover," he told reporters, while hoping that it wouldn't come to that.

What if it does come to that? If a "full-scale war" breaks out? Who would be the first to break down and accept the opponent's terms?

— War naturally doesn't abide by any gentleman's rules, noted military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov.

"The attack on Iranian schools proves this. But in fact, the U.S. doesn't want Iran's oil infrastructure to be destroyed, because economically, the U.S. needs Iranian oil to flow as before from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Sea."

[Russian journalist asks]: Who benefits from the escalation of the conflict?

— So far, Iran is more willing to maintain the escalation, because the U.S. cannot withstand the pressure from Persian Gulf countries: Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia. These countries are not used to a state of war and obviously don't want the conflict to last long.

It is believed that the U.S. intelligence agencies have already started secret negotiations with Iran. The U.S. is unlikely to want a full-scale war or a destructive war.

The most likely outcome is a stalemate. Although Trump has been shouting that the U.S. will not accept any deal other than Iran's complete surrender, it is clearly impossible. In the end, both sides must reach an agreement.

— If the U.S. does not launch a ground operation (which would require inciting Kurdish rebels and separatists, at least dragging regional countries into the conflict), as long as there is no humanitarian disaster, Iran can withstand any war, says Kamran Ghasanov, Ph.D. in political science from Salzburg University, senior lecturer in the Department of Journalism at the Russian People's Friendship University, and expert at the Russia-U.S.-Europe Analysis Center.

"Even Hamas in Gaza, under siege, has retained power."

Iran has actually already escalated. We have seen attacks not only targeting U.S. military bases but also oil refineries. This is already a significant escalation.

Part of the reason is that the United Nations has passed a resolution condemning Iran.

In the future, Iran may increase its attacks, using ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons fully. Iran is currently still preserving its strength.

Iran may target desalination plants and skyscrapers in regional countries.

But that would already be a full-scale war, requiring the U.S. to take extremely severe actions against Iran, which would prompt Iran to take this step. For now, Tehran will not unilaterally continue to escalate.

Iran is trying to maintain a proportional response. Even in the Strait of Hormuz, not all oil tankers have been sunk. According to Indian sources, Iran has agreed to let Indian ships pass through.

[Russian journalist asks]: Which side can withstand a full-scale war?

— I think only the U.S. can withstand it, even if there are terrorist attacks targeting American citizens on its home soil.

But regional countries would suffer extremely heavy losses. This would benefit certain forces, as it would intensify the tensions between Shia and Sunni, Turks and Persians.

If you consider full-scale escalation plus ground invasion, the U.S. itself would suffer heavy losses. The Republicans would certainly lose in the midterm elections.

The Democrats would win the presidential election, not to mention impeaching Trump. Because there would be U.S. military casualties, and the impact on American society would be much greater than the death of Iranian civilians.

I also want to add one more thing: the means in the oil sector have not been exhausted yet. For example, oil pipelines have not been bombed. Proxy forces have not yet fully entered the fray...

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7617392475904164388/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.