【Military Second Dimension】 Author: Lile

Thanks to more than two decades of continuous observation, the progress in most areas of China's domestic weapons and equipment series is generally known to the outside world. However, nuclear submarines are extremely secretive from production to service, and the official side has intentionally hidden the status of China's nuclear submarines, so people can only guess at their development level. In this context, the American "Defence-Blog" website wrote an article stating that China's nuclear submarine count exceeds 30 ships, higher than Russia's 28, which is naturally surprising.

▲The nuclear submarine field is very secretive

Well, it is indeed a good achievement for China's nuclear submarines to surpass Russia, which inherited a large amount of Soviet legacy and invested heavily in developing nuclear submarines, compared to previous backwardness. But with the Fuzhou aircraft carrier, 076, 055, and even the J-36 ahead, this performance seems somewhat inadequate. Simply put, our appetite has grown larger, and the label of "second in the world" is far from satisfying unless we surpass or stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States. Specifically, the current nuclear submarines in China are mainly the improved versions of the 093 and 094 series. The next-generation 095 and 096, however, have no conclusive evidence of mass production.

▲The 076 represents the level of China's military industry

Referring to the Chinese destroyers, which continuously introduced transitional models like the 052B and 052C in the early 21st century to accumulate experience and verify technical routes and equipment strategies, the current improvements of the 093 and 094 are also transitional, and theoretically, their maximum level would not exceed that of the 052D. The problem is that unlike surface fleets often operating in groups, which can integrate combat power and distribute costs through high and low combinations, submarines operate mostly independently, requiring very high single-boat performance. The new submarine should at least be similar to a 10,000-ton destroyer, if not reaching the underwater level of the 055, to be able to compete with the U.S. Navy, which has over 70 nuclear submarines.

▲In high-intensity confrontation, the 052D needs support from the 055

By contrast, the current level of the Russian Navy's nuclear submarines is based on several new submarine projects initiated before the collapse of the Soviet Union with significant progress, all key design and manufacturing units of nuclear submarines remaining, and Russia's navy allocating most of its development resources to them. As for the conventional submarines, they have been stagnant, still relying on the "Kilo" class from thirty years ago, "Yasen" and "Borei" should be the last of the Soviet/Russian nuclear submarines. In the future, Russia may still build new submarines, but it is unlikely to achieve substantial breakthroughs unless it receives strong external support.

▲Russia's nuclear submarines have reached their limit

Therefore, regardless of whether the number of China's nuclear submarines has really exceeded, even if it has, the value of this achievement may not be very high. Comparing with the U.S. Navy, which completed the basic design of the "Seawolf" class before the end of the Cold War and even built three ships despite congressional pressure, the technical reserves are quite excellent. The subsequent "Virginia," although considered a weakened version of the "Seawolf," has an excellent basic structure, and later models have been continuously refined, currently recognized as a model competing for the top attack nuclear submarine with the "Yasen-M." It is precisely because of its good level that the U.S. Navy does not urgently need to update, and the main focus is on the next-generation "Columbia" class strategic nuclear submarine.

▲The performance of the "Seawolf" is actually quite good

But according to the plan announced by the U.S. Navy in 2025, the new SSN (X) will integrate the firepower of the "Seawolf," the stealth layout and electronic warfare systems of the "Virginia," and the advanced nuclear reactor of the "Columbia." It is expected to begin service in 2035. Although the probability of completing this plan is not high given the current level of the U.S. shipbuilding industry, no matter how much the 093 is improved, it cannot approach this height. Taking into account that the J-20A was the first to enter the fifth generation, and China still launched the J-36 and J-50, without underestimating the opponent's performance due to the slow development of U.S. fighter jets, the main nuclear submarine planned for after 2030 must definitely match the "Columbia" and SSN (X).

▲Leveling with others is not our goal

Only when reaching this stage can the Chinese nuclear submarines truly unleash their full capacity and create miracles. Before that, the later models of the 093 and 094 series are destined to maintain the current transition stage.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7594794194397397547/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.