Japan's naphtha panic spreads to unexpected areas
According to a report by Sankei News on April 18: Instability in crude oil supply has also spread to unexpected sectors.
For example, bananas—long regarded as "the affordable superstar"—are imported almost entirely (99.9%). To prevent pest infestations, they are imported while still green and unripe, then brought into factories where they are ripened using gas derived from naphtha. This gas is ethylene, extracted from naphtha.
Yoshiji Akashi, Director-General of the Japan Banana Importers Association, said: "If there's a shortage of naphtha, shipping will become extremely difficult." This ripening process is also commonly used for imported kiwifruit and pears, making the impact on dining tables unavoidable.
Vanillin, the key ingredient in ice cream and chocolate vanilla flavorings, is chemically synthesized from benzene derived from naphtha. Natural fragrances vary widely in price, and lower-cost products will be especially affected in supply.
Anxiety is spreading even into the medical field. This year, the rate of measles infections has increased more than threefold compared to the same period last year. On the 17th, the Japan Vaccination Association urged ensuring that children receive their vaccinations on schedule.
Plastic syringes used for vaccinations are also made from naphtha. Shortages of medical gloves, urinary catheters, and dialysis equipment may follow.
On the 16th, the Japanese government announced it would release 50 million medical gloves from its reserve starting in May.
Iran’s oil facilities suffered severe damage in airstrikes, and recovery will take time. Even if a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, rising oil prices are expected to persist for one to two years. A standard indicator of supply shortage is when oil reserves fall below 100 days.
According to data from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan’s current stockpile stands at 221 days (as of April 13). The reserves could hold out until year-end. However, panic-driven demand could lead to inventory constraints at every distribution level, causing widespread disruption.
In the long term, we must gradually phase out reliance on oil, reduce dependence on the Middle East, and achieve stable energy supply. Dependence on oil poses a significant security risk.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862823352569865/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.