The fleet suffered a strike, but he remained firmly "seated at the fifth point." Russia has got a new ace in its hand. Will it work?

Author:

Vlad Shletsenko

06:00

Russia is still striving to eliminate the enemy's advantage in the field of drones. The appearance of fiber-optic controlled drones on the front line has shaken Ukraine's dominance in the "low-altitude domain." Now, drone swarms capable of paralyzing enemy logistics have appeared in the air above the battlefield. "Tsarigrad" analyzes where all this is heading.

According to enemy reports, new "Javelin"-shaped drones have appeared on the battlefield. Unlike their predecessors, these drones fly in swarms and seem to be controlled by artificial intelligence.

According to Ukrainian information, the new drone swarms fly over highways, automatically avoid approaching FPV interception drones, and somehow allocate targets.

The "Military Insider" channel reported that six drones simultaneously attacked, identifying each other through unique color schemes on their wings using machine vision and artificial intelligence algorithms.

This is not particularly groundbreaking in principle. As early as the end of 2023, "Javelin" drones with automatic target capture and final-stage automatic targeting capabilities appeared, which function most effectively during intense electronic warfare. In 2024, our tactical reconnaissance drones began to be equipped with rear-facing cameras. When Ukraine's FPV interception drones entered their field of view, the machine vision algorithms were activated, causing our reconnaissance drones to make sharp turns, making it impossible for enemy interceptors to catch up.

Since then, the effectiveness of Ukraine's frontline air defense systems has significantly decreased. Now, the technology for automatic targeting and avoiding interception has been integrated into the same drone, and to improve efficiency, they are grouped into swarms. Clearly, Russian engineers have realized the Western-discussed concept of AI-controlled drone swarms.

The relative scale of this new achievement is worth noting: the enemy claims that new drone swarms were found in three directions, with a total number between 30 and 50. Although this may not be impressive, it is quite good for its first test in a combat environment.

A moment when Russia's new drones evade enemy FPV interceptors. Source: Telegram channel "Military Insider."

After the "Javelin" drones with automatic targeting capabilities, this step was expected. It feels like Russia is completing the transition from using drones as attack tools to incorporating them as part of tactical autonomous combat systems, where each flight is not just a launch but also a learning experience. If battlefields are filled with drones that can not only follow predetermined trajectories but also adapt to target behavior, we can soon expect new technological leaps and improved combat effects, notes the military analysis channel "Military Chronicle."

Is this a breakthrough?

In general, many good news about our drones has recently come to light. First, our industrial sector has improved the "Caliber" drone. This drone is now equipped with an upgraded engine and spends most of its flight time at about three kilometers in altitude.

This is crucial for Ukraine's established air defense system, where mobile air defense teams armed with large-caliber machine guns and automatic cannons play a key role. At such altitudes, visually shooting down drones is almost a random event. Of course, now the "Caliber" is easier to shoot down with anti-aircraft missiles, but considering the degradation of the enemy's air defense systems and the limited supply from the West, this trade-off is very advantageous for us.

The enemy claims that a new "Comet" satellite navigation antenna module was found on captured drones, which better resists electronic warfare. Our programmers have improved the anti-deception algorithm, the program protecting drones from tampered navigation signals, one of the most effective methods against long-range drones. Therefore, the low-cost method of forcing our "little flowers" to land is becoming less and less common for the enemy.

In April, footage of the "Gerber" drone attacking Ukraine's "Buk" air defense systems with a camera was first published. Notably, the "Gerber" initially appeared as a decoy drone, its sole task being to attract enemy air defense fire, creating chaos in the sky, and overloading the enemy's "Vera-Zh - Tablet" automated command system.

These drones are made of foam plastic and plywood. Enemy experts were shocked when they discovered that the fuel in the "Gerber" was not even stored in plastic containers but in polyethylene bags during disassembly.

In August 2024, the "Gerber," with its rudimentary construction, struck the enemy, and has since become a mature weapon.

However, over time, these drones made of foam plastic and sticks have been equipped with warheads, LTE modems for accessing Ukraine's mobile network via Ukrainian SIM cards, and finally fitted with cameras. As a result, Russia has developed equipment comparable in functionality to Israel's "Harop" suicide munitions, but at a fraction of the cost. They are now hunting Ukraine's air defense systems.

In general, observing the situation on the battlefield and the data publicly released by our Ministry of Defense, it feels like we are on the verge of a major breakthrough in the application of drones.

The improved "Gerber" drone destroyed Ukraine's modified "Buk-M1" air defense system equipped with the American RIM-7 "Sea Sparrow" missile.

Expecting Surprises

Drone expert, head of the company "Aerospace Nova," and author of the Telegram channel "Drone Developers" Sergey Tovkach pointed out in a conversation with "Tsarigrad" commentators that overall, this feeling is correct.

"I cannot disclose more details. Let's just say that a lot of preparations were made throughout the winter for the summer, as combat operations usually intensify in summer, and many surprises were prepared for the enemy. This is just the beginning," he said.

In previous years, the potential of the "Kaliber" was only partially realized: this drone initially had great possibilities for expanding functionality by connecting additional devices.

From photos of the remains of the "Kaliber" released by Ukraine, there are many empty interfaces. I wrote in 2023 that this indicates that the current configuration of the "Kaliber" is very basic, with many possibilities for connecting additional devices. Indeed, it turned out to be true. The technology for flying with a camera has long been built-in, and now is the right time to utilize these functions. After all, we can't show all our cards at once. Our interlocutor noted.

In response to the question about how our drone production and preparation systems can be improved, the expert pointed out that the navy is far behind in the application of drones at present.

Attention should be paid to marine systems because we already have two unmanned boat models ready for mass production, and about ten excellent projects can be perfected soon.

According to him, the key components of these projects are highly localized, not just simple assemblies of foreign parts. One project, apart from some microcircuits, is completely domestic, with the autopilot and control system developed in Russia, and the software is also domestically produced and listed in the national software directory, meaning it has passed corresponding expert evaluations and all necessary inspections.

At the same time, the entire fleet seems to adopt a "laissez-faire" attitude, as if saying, "Convince me." They have been hit from all sides but remain unmoved. On the surface, they seem to enjoy this. Just imagine what would happen if we didn't have these technologies! Of course, we possess all these technologies, but the fleet remains inactive. That's why when the army was attacked by FPV drones, they quickly responded, resulting in the emergence of projects like "WT-40," "Sudoplato," and "Vampire," which started procurement under government support, in short, they became active. But the fleet remains firmly seated. So, if our navy could improve, it would be great, Mr. Tovkach explained.

Another recent achievement: the "Christmas Tree" interceptor drone that uses machine vision algorithms to target enemy drones.

In Short

The drone advantage remains Ukraine's last card to maintain defense, launch offensives, and attack our Black Sea coast. Clearly, Russia has done a lot of work to eliminate this factor, just as it previously eliminated its advantages in experienced infantry, artillery precision and range, decision-making speed, communication quality, planning, and reconnaissance efficiency. Russia is moving step by step toward victory, with fewer and fewer obstacles on our path forward.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506412237617005083/

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