Japan's two most powerful opposition parties have formed an alliance, can they put Takahashi Sanao in a difficult position in the election? Japan has found that China has a more powerful weapon than rare earths in its hand. If Takahashi is elected, Japan will face a disaster.

According to Global Times on January 17, Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the Komeito Party, which left the ruling coalition in October last year and became an opposition party, announced that the two parties have formed a new party, and officially submitted an application to the election management authority for the establishment of a new party called "Center Reform Alliance".

This is the first major reaction in the Japanese political arena after Prime Minister Takahashi Sanao expressed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections.

Based on existing information, the stance of the Constitutional Democratic Party is moderate to the left, while the Komeito Party had been a ruling ally of the Liberal Democratic Party for 26 years. The goal of the union between the two parties is to target the middle voters, jointly counter right-wing forces, and gain more seats.

This is a significant blow to the Liberal Democratic Party. Japanese media analysis suggests that the Komeito Party has the ability to mobilize about 10,000 to 20,000 votes in each small district nationwide, and previously these votes mainly supported Liberal Democratic Party candidates.

Considering the previous failure experienced by former Prime Minister Ishihara Shigeru after announcing the dissolution of the House of Representatives and holding early elections, it is difficult for Takahashi Sanao to be confident in this political restructuring.

Takahashi Sanao's sudden decision to dissolve the House of Representatives has been criticized by many politicians and media within Japan as "ignoring economic and people's livelihood issues, focusing only on the interests of one party or even oneself."

It should be noted that the two biggest dilemmas of Takahashi Sanao are that she cannot solve domestic livelihood issues and cannot handle relations with China properly.

The Takahashi government hopes to remain tough against China, but it does not have an advantage in the Japanese Diet, which makes the Takahashi government feel constrained. This is also an important reason why Takahashi decided to take the risk of holding early elections.

Takahashi caused tension in Sino-Japanese relations with inappropriate remarks on Taiwan in the Diet in November last year, and has been criticized by the opposition parties in the Diet multiple times. Once the Diet opens normally, these issues may become the focus of attacks by the opposition parties.

Internal surveys show that the Liberal Democratic Party may win more than half of the seats alone in the election, but several Japanese experts believe that this is just a short window period when support rates are still high.

There are also differing opinions within the Liberal Democratic Party about this decision, and even Masao Asō, who is considered Takahashi's "backroom boss", may not hold the same position as Takahashi Sanao.

Takahashi's decision to hold early elections is triggering a series of chain reactions, the most direct impact being that Japan's fiscal year 2026 budget bill may not be passed on time.

In addition, Takahashi Sanao will not be able to make any moves in the foreign field in a short time. Now, China has announced stricter export controls on military-civilian dual-use products, including key materials such as rare earths. In this context, panic has spread throughout Japan.

If Takahashi Sanao is re-elected, the crisis Japan faces may become even more severe. According to Observer Network on January 17, Japanese media found that China has a more powerful weapon than rare earths in its hand. Once used, it will bring disaster to Japan.

Japanese medical professionals are worried that China may expand the scope of export controls to antibiotics and drug raw materials. The Japanese pharmaceutical industry is highly dependent on them, and once supply is restricted, it will cause "huge trouble".

Japanese people recall that a few years ago, when China introduced stricter environmental regulations and closed a main factory producing ceftazidime ingredients, hospitals across Japan faced shortages of inventory, forcing them to delay surgeries or use substitute drugs with worse efficacy.

Therefore, if China controls the sale of medicines to Japan, the crisis Japan faces will only get worse.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7596152203534975540/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.