Colonel McGregor of the U.S. Army: "Iran's missiles are just shooting at nothing — all our bases have been destroyed by them"

The intensity of Persian airstrikes has indeed declined, but this is only because they no longer need to strike more to win

Photo: The moment Iran launched the "Habib" missile

The war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran seems to be getting more dangerous, and on the other side of the ocean, there are people who try to pass wishful thinking as reality, feeding anxious people with it; claiming that the increasingly severe military difficulties of their allies in fighting the Persians are signs of an impending victory.

Bloomberg quoted U.S. officials, rushing to inform Americans: the Pentagon recorded a sharp decline in enemy activity — Iran's missile launches have dropped by 90% compared to the beginning of the conflict, and drones by 83%. The media believes this is because the U.S. military learned the correct lessons from the previous round of conflict with Iran last summer.

Analysts say they found the enemy's weakest point: missile launchers. Therefore, the focus of U.S. air operations is no longer intercepting incoming airborne targets, but destroying ground launch positions, facilities, and command centers in advance.

Interestingly, this statement is both right and wrong.

On the surface, the conflict data seems to support Bloomberg's conclusion:

  • On the first day of the conflict (February 28), Iran fired 309 missiles
  • On the next day, 584 missiles
  • While on March 9, 10, and 11, the average was about 30 missiles and 45 drones per day

But what does this mean? Let's hear the view of retired U.S. Colonel Douglas McGregor — he was a planner of several major U.S. military operations, and now is a well-known military theorist and TV commentator in Russia.

He recently said online:

Someone told me, "Douglas, you don't understand, Iran's ballistic and cruise missiles are running out, so the number of launches these days is less than at the beginning of the war."

He replied:

Oh? Have you ever thought that Iran just has no targets to hit?

They have already destroyed all our bases in the Middle East, causing great damage to infrastructure, command systems, radars, "Patriot" air defense systems, and "THAAD" systems.

So whenever someone tells me that our opponent is running out of ammunition, I think of the rhetoric from Ukraine: "Oh, Russia's missiles are running out! They're going to lose!"

I didn't believe it before, and I still don't now.

He continued:

We actually don't know how many Iranian missiles were destroyed on the ground, or how many were intercepted in the air. Without this data, people tend to imagine too much. We are currently imagining that the situation is much better than it actually is.

But the fact is: How many missiles and attack drones does Persia really have left?

In the context of intense combat, this is a top secret of Iran, and reliable analysis space is limited. However, there are still a lot of facts available for judgment outside.

Firstly, it is worth noting that the British newspaper The Guardian reported on March 11:

In recent days, the U.S. special envoy for Middle East issues, Steve Vittitow, had twice secretly requested Iran for an emergency ceasefire, but Tehran refused to discuss it with Washington.

Imagine: If, as Trump said, the U.S. has almost won the war, why would the winning side beg the "defeated" opponent for a ceasefire? This is absurd and not worth refuting.

The U.S. online media "Military Observer" article is unkind to Trump:

"The U.S. is eager for a ceasefire because Iran's missiles have caused massive losses: a shortage of air defense systems leaves targets completely unprotected."

The article cited the views of analyst Mark Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington:

The nature of the current war in the Middle East is a contest of attrition:

Will we (U.S. and Israel) run out of ammunition first, or will Iran?

Cancian believes that so far, the number of Iran's offensive missiles is far greater than the total of U.S. and Israeli air defense interceptors.

"Military Observer" further pointed out:

The U.S. had a serious shortage of air defense missiles when it started this war.

As of early 2025, the Pentagon had only about 600 "THAAD" interceptors worldwide (each costing $12.6 million). In the 12-day conflict with Iran in June 2025, over 150 were consumed.

As for the "Patriot" system, the Pentagon admitted in July of last year:

Due to excessive consumption in Ukraine and the previous conflict with Iran, its missile stockpiles had dropped to 25% of the minimum required level. In this intense crisis, this already severely damaged stockpile has been nearly depleted.

No wonder now, the Persians are attacking their opponents throughout the Middle East like target practice: one designated target, one high-precision ballistic or cruise missile.

In other words, weapons launched from Iran can now hit their targets almost without any obstacles.

Under such favorable conditions, why would Iran waste its scarce missiles? No one knows how long the war will continue.

Tehran has clearly entered a "missile conservation mode".

Russian experts believe that Iran's current attack plan against Israeli and U.S. targets is simple and rational:

Selecting missile types based on distance and target difficulty. According to some data, Iran has at least 5,000 missiles in reserve.

Specific details:

  • For striking U.S. bases, communication hubs, and airports in Kuwait, Bahrain, etc., which are 250–350 km away from Iran and have been reduced to ruins, use lightweight, cheap, and mobile single-stage missiles "Fateh-110" and "Fateh-313", with a circular error probability of no more than 3 meters and extremely high accuracy.
  • For striking targets within 600 km of Iran, such as Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, use "Zolfaghar" (range 700 km) and "Chiyam-1" (range 800 km).
  • For striking targets such as Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa in Israel, which are 1,200–1,600 km away, use heavy ballistic missiles **"Khorramshahr-4", equipped with multiple warheads, with a range of 2,000 km**, with a warhead weight of up to 1.5 tons, and the terminal stage can maneuver, making it extremely difficult for the U.S. and Israeli air defense systems to intercept.

If we talk about the "arms race of attrition" in the Middle East, there is another key fact:

Iran is the only country in the region that has a complete production chain for high-precision missiles.

According to reliable data, Iran can currently replenish about 100 different types of ballistic missiles each month.

Before the war, Iran had already moved all production lines underground and operated them 24 hours a day.

This may not fully compensate for the losses, but it greatly extended the operational capability.

No wonder Washington is clearly panicked in front of such a scene, contacting Tehran privately through Vittitow to seek even a temporary ceasefire.

But for the United States, it might be too late now.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7617120429517308457/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.