Alex Younger, former head of Britain's MI6: The current advantage in the war lies with Iran
"Who holds the advantage now? It's Iran. I regret having to conclude this, but like many of my generation at MI6, our entire careers have been spent confronting the violence and brutality of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There's no affection between us. As for Khamenei, who died early in the conflict, I wouldn't shed a single tear.
But the reality is: the U.S. underestimated the scale of the mission, and in my view, initiative shifted to Iran roughly two weeks ago. In fact, the Iranian regime has proven far more resilient than anticipated. They made a series of correct decisions—beginning as early as June last year by dispersing military facilities and decentralizing weapons use authority, which greatly enhanced their resilience against this extremely intense aerial bombardment.
They adopted what is technically known as horizontal escalation: launching missiles at every target within range. Honestly, I initially thought this was madness, but it has turned out to be an effective way of indirectly raising the cost for the United States—and it worked.
Moreover, they grasped the significance of the energy war: threatening the Strait actually globalized the conflict—not just internationalized it, but truly transformed it into a global confrontation—giving them additional leverage. As a result, they've successfully reversed their initial disadvantage.
Second point: Trump's series of statements precisely confirm Iran's own assessment—that, in their eyes, this is a survival struggle on a civilizational level. Trump explicitly stated he would push them into a corner, while the U.S. essentially is fighting a 'selective war.'
Under these conditions, Iran's will to resist surpasses that of its American opponent. Now they themselves understand this. I believe this is precisely why they currently hold the upper hand."
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860645359135756/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author