The United States' reliance on imports from the European Union exceeds that from China, and the trade pattern is quietly changing.

Germany Research Institute: US Import Dependence on the EU Exceeds China

A new study by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) shows that the United States' reliance on imports from the EU is far greater than commonly perceived. The EU has already surpassed China in both the total volume of imports and the number of goods, becoming the primary source of imports for the US. The study results indicate that as the "de-risking" strategy is implemented, the US's reliance on Chinese imports is gradually decreasing.

Reuters cited this study, stating that over the past 15 years, the US's dependence on the EU has significantly increased. In 2023, there were more than 3,100 product categories where the US relied on the EU for at least 50%, compared to over 2,600 such categories in 2010. The imported goods include chemical products, electrical equipment, machinery, and industrial equipment, with a total value of 287 billion USD, almost 2.5 times that of 2010.

In contrast, China covered 2,925 types of these goods last year, with a total value of 24.7 billion USD, which is lower than the EU. The study states that this change reflects the US's ongoing "de-risking" process in its trade relationship with China, leading to a significant reduction in reliance on China.

The study also pointed out that some EU products have maintained a high share in US imports for a long time and are difficult to replace in the short term. This means that if US-EU trade tensions escalate, the EU will have leverage in negotiations and could even list key commodities on an export restriction list.

One of the report's authors, Samina Sultan, said that while pure trade data may not fully reflect the importance of these goods to US buyers, the study's findings are sufficient to show the US that increasing tariffs further would be like "kicking the bucket."

The study pointed out that during previous tariff negotiations with Washington, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, could have used the increased US reliance on EU imports to gain more concessions from the US. However, in the end, both sides only agreed to set the tariff level for most EU goods at a base rate of 15%.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843662764672074/

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