Bloomberg: Modi May Be Cornered by Trump on Trade Issues Donald Trump has left two major problems for his friend, Narendra Modi. The more serious issue is related to foreign policy. The hasty announcement by the U.S. President that India and Pakistan have agreed to immediately cease fire under American mediation has led to criticism of the Indian Prime Minister domestically. Trump has actually involved Washington in the Kashmir dispute, which New Delhi has consistently insisted should only be discussed bilaterally with Islamabad. The Indian Foreign Ministry responded that its policies have not changed, but this can only be tested in future conflicts between these two nuclear neighbors. If the United States continues to view India and Pakistan as two sides of a great nuclear issue in the future, New Delhi's efforts over many years to carve out an independent space in America's foreign policy framework will come to naught. Modi's second discomfort is related to politics and economics. Trump claimed that trade is "one of the most important" reasons why New Delhi and Islamabad avoid full-scale war, giving opposition politicians in India more ammunition. Even before the 26% reciprocal tariff (which has now been suspended), Modi's opponents were questioning why the White House would punish a country that previous U.S. administrations had cultivated as a bulwark against China's rise. Now, they wonder why India's prime minister allows Trump to place economic interests above national security. Indian officials deny any connection between trade relations with the United States and the ceasefire, but this does not stop the U.S. president from reiterating this claim. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, he further elaborated on how he brokered the ceasefire: "I largely utilized trade. I said, 'Guys, let's make a deal. Let's not exchange nuclear missiles, let's exchange the fine goods you manufacture.'" Trump is delving into the delicate economic field for New Delhi. Washington and Beijing have already paused their trade war; the U.S. government has also reached a tariff agreement with the UK. But for India, which exported more goods to the U.S. last year than the UK, there are currently no signs of reaching such an agreement. Time is critical. Apple plans to import most of the iPhones it sells in the U.S. from India by the end of 2026, but Trump seems unwilling to even make this concession. "I don't want you producing in India," he told Tim Cook, Apple's CEO, last week in Qatar. However, if tariffs become certain, lesser-known companies in the electronics supply chain might hope to reduce their reliance on China. Once the ban on reciprocal import tariffs expires on July 9th, most Indian products may face a 26% tariff in the U.S., while Chinese goods will be subject to a 30% tariff. This gap is too small for India to position itself as a global manufacturing hub. Despite being a country of 1.4 billion people with the world's richest pool of cheap labor, it is also notorious for its difficult business environment. Indian negotiators are discussing a bilateral agreement in the U.S. Modi hopes to reach an agreement quickly while protecting vulnerable farmers from the impact of American agricultural products, a point the other side also understands well. To demonstrate that India will not easily compromise, New Delhi has informed the World Trade Organization that India reserves the right to respond to the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on March 12th. However, canceling $2 billion in concessions will not change the fact that the Modi government will not retaliate against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Negotiations with Washington still hold advantages, especially since Trump has linked trade with the ceasefire and stated that India has proposed eliminating all tariffs on U.S. goods. Indian officials deny making any such proposal. "Terrorism and trade cannot coexist," Modi said in his televised speech after the ceasefire. Given the negligible and declining scale of Indo-Pakistani trade, this statement clearly targets Modi's right-wing supporters and India's nationalist TV hosts: even if the U.S. seems to treat India and Pakistan equally with the carrot of trade, they shouldn't feel too disappointed. But if this statement also implies that the White House should stop intervening in the long-standing disputes in South Asia, then this suggestion has fallen on deaf ears. Trump joked in Riyadh that Modi and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif could "go out for a good meal together." This brings trouble for India. As India's foreign minister said, bilateral talks with Pakistan can only focus on terrorism. Does the U.S. President not know that his tough rhetoric will only make Modi's government appear weak? Or is his purpose to corner New Delhi into agreeing to a trade deal favorable to Washington? Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832536398271500/ Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views.