The atmosphere between the US and Iran has turned tense. With the US nearly completing the deployment of its air strike forces to the Middle East, Washington is once again showing its fierce side. Almost all major American mainstream media have warned in the past two days that a military strike by the US against Iran on a scale far exceeding the "12-day war" of last June is imminent, with the fastest possible war outbreak predicted to be this Saturday.

Axios news website cited sources on the 18th, saying that the US military operation in Iran is likely to be a large-scale campaign lasting several weeks, resembling more a full-scale war than the precise strike action in Venezuela last month.

On the same day, The Times of Israel also cited sources, stating that a US-Iran war may be imminent. Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, said that the distance between the US and Israel for potential conflict is closer than ever before.

The New York Times reported on the 18th that US government and Pentagon officials stated that the rapid deployment of forces in the Middle East has reached a point where Trump could potentially take military action against Iran as early as this weekend. CBS said that senior national security officials have informed Trump that the military is ready, possibly launching an attack on Iran as early as this Saturday (February 21).

White House press secretary Levitt said on Wednesday that Trump still hopes to resolve the issue of Tehran's nuclear program through diplomatic means.

Trump also posted on social media on the 18th that if Iran does not reach a nuclear agreement, the US may have to use the Diego Garcia island in the Indian Ocean, controlled by the UK, to launch an attack. Trump also said the US might use the Fairford Air Force Base in the UK during the operation.

Trump's words are two-faced, and the US indeed hopes to win without a war. However, almost all military analysts and major American media believe that war is difficult to avoid and will soon come. Why are these predictions so certain? Old Hu believes there are mainly the following reasons.

Firstly, the US military buildup in the Middle East is nearly complete, which is the largest US military deployment since the 2003 Iraq War.

Currently, the Trump administration has deployed two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems in the relevant area, with some firepower still being transported, and over 150 U.S. military cargo planes have transported weapon systems and ammunition to the Middle East.

In just 24 hours from the 17th to the 18th, another 50 fighter jets, including F-35, F-22, and F-16, flew to the region.

US officials said that the USS Ford aircraft carrier and its battle strike group will arrive in the eastern Mediterranean in the coming days, which will be a key factor in determining the timing of a potential US military action against Iran.

Secondly, although the negotiations between the US and Iran on the 17th made progress, the differences between the two sides remain too great, and the possibility of mutual compromise is extremely low. The US and Israel demand that the Tehran regime completely change its course, which amounts to surrendering to the US and Israel. If the Khamenei regime accepts this condition, Tehran would politically completely negate itself. There may be new unrest domestically, leading to unpredictable political reshuffling. On the other hand, if Trump is to withdraw from the Middle East and lift the threat against Iran without achieving a clear, symbolic victory, it would be a serious loss of face for Trump. At present, he holds the power, enjoys the advantage, and people find it hard to believe he would do so.

Thirdly, Israel is eager to act. Axios news website cited sources, saying that a potential conflict in the Middle East in the future is likely to be a joint operation between the US and Israel. Moreover, Israel is a strong advocate for expanding the requirement to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities into removing medium and long-range missiles, because Iranian missiles pose a real threat to Israel. Now that Trump has formed a military strike posture towards Iran, Israel will try every means to increase pressure on Trump to retreat, using Trump's hand to completely eliminate the biggest threat Israel faces in the Middle East.

When two enemies meet, the brave one wins. Once Trump orders the bombing of Iran, there will be no turning back, and he must achieve the goal of Iran fully accepting or largely accepting the US's demands. For this, Khamenei must step down, and his successor must make significant adjustments in the policy direction.

Another goal is to completely overthrow the current Iranian regime and install a puppet regime. Although Iran may then fall into chaos, the overall situation in the Middle East is unpredictable, but it will provide short-term clear support for declaring Trump's current "victory" and helping the Republicans win the midterm elections in November.

For Iran, they are not yet in an impossible situation. The media have noticed that although the current US military buildup in the Middle East is the largest since 2003, compared to the forces deployed by the US during the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the 1991 Gulf War, it is only a fraction.

During the Gulf War, the US deployed six aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Before that operation, the US Air Force deployed an entire flying wing, rather than just a few flying squadrons as now.

During the 2003 "Operation Iraqi Freedom," the US Air Force deployed 863 aircraft in the Middle East. According to the magazine Air Force & Space Forces, during the 1991 "Operation Desert Storm," the US Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps deployed a total of 1,300 aircraft.

Now the situation is quite different. The US Air Force has significantly reduced in size, and there is no ground force support from the US and its allies.

Without a ground invasion and occupation, theoretically, as long as Iran maintains necessary unity, the regime cannot be overthrown. To truly realize the overthrow of the Islamic Republic's legitimacy, the US must deploy hundreds of thousands of ground troops to occupy most of Iran. Therefore, no matter how hard the US bombs, if Iran remains defiant and can retaliate, it will eventually put Trump in a political dilemma.

Trump's aerial punches will be very strong, but he will certainly not dare to send ground forces. Overall, he expects a quick victory, and his strength and weakness are obvious. If Iran can withstand it, it may win a "bitter victory." But the problem is, will the Iranian people be willing to follow the Khamenei regime to fight to the end?

Original: toutiao.com/article/1857558755629056/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.