Various reports indicate that if Trump visits China in September, it would be a historic breakthrough between China and the United States, and also the first time in over 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

This September, there will be two major events held in China and the United States respectively: one is the military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression on September 3rd in Beijing.

The other is the United Nations General Assembly scheduled for late September. This year marks the 80th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations, and according to convention, the leaders of the five permanent members usually attend the UN General Assembly held every ten years.

【A military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression will be held in Beijing on September 3rd】

With less than three months remaining until these two events, considering the preliminary diplomatic preparations, various rumors have been circulating recently about how the leaders of China, the United States, and Russia will participate in these two events.

According to Kyodo News, citing "informed sources," China plans to invite Trump to attend the 80th-anniversary military parade commemorating the victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression.

At the same time, "sources" said that the U.S. has also proposed that Chinese leaders visit the U.S. in September to attend the 80th-anniversary United Nations General Assembly.

Please note that the above information is currently only in the stage of media reports, and neither country's official has responded yet.

However, if any of these plans come to fruition, it would mark the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of China and the United States since Trump returned to the White House in January.

【Kyodo News reports that China plans to invite Trump to attend the 80th-anniversary military parade commemorating the victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression】

As for Putin, he is expected to attend the 80th-anniversary military parade, and it is basically just waiting for an official announcement.

As for attending the 80th-anniversary United Nations General Assembly in the U.S., the probability is very low—Putin is unlikely to go to the U.S. before the end of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

But at the weekend, the Kremlin suddenly released a thought-provoking message.

President Putin's aide Ushakov said in an interview: "We are considering with our Chinese colleagues the possibility of celebrating the 80th anniversary of the United Nations in a special and grand way during Putin's visit to China."

If this plan comes true, it would mean that the leaders of China and Russia can celebrate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations without going to the U.S.

From the above information, there are two layers of competition:

First, the competition between China and the United States. After Trump returned to the White House, both China and the United States hope that the other leader will visit their country first, especially in the context of the trade war, where it is necessary to show that they are the more proactive side, while the other side is in the position of "visiting to discuss matters."

【After Trump returned to the White House, both China and the United States hope that the other leader will visit their country first】

It should be noted that no U.S. president has ever attended the military parade commemorating the victory in the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, even when Sino-U.S. relations were much better ten or twenty years ago.

If Trump could attend the military parade held by China this year, it would not only mean that the U.S. visited China first, but also represent a historic breakthrough in the field of bilateral relations, becoming the first time in over 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

In addition, considering that Putin is likely to be in Beijing at that time, China will also become a "middle platform" for meetings between U.S. and Russian leaders—The last time when the leaders of China, the U.S., and Russia appeared together was at the G20 Summit in 2019.

Of course, all of the above is based on the assumption that Trump is willing to attend the military parade.

Although Trump has never hidden his love for military parades, he once considered attending the Red Square military parade in 2020, but the uncertainty is still high.

【Of course, all of the above is based on the assumption that Trump is willing to attend the military parade】

The reason is simple: Trump considered visiting Russia to watch a military parade because most of Russia's weapons are behind the U.S.; but China is completely different. The military parade in 2019 was already impressive enough, and the one in 2025 may exceed people's expectations.

Additionally, we need to consider the internal political pressure in the U.S.: Trump couldn't go to Russia in 2020 largely because of the strong opposition within the country.

The second layer of competition revolves around the definition and voice of the world order.

The headquarters of the United Nations is in New York, USA. Every year, many countries' leaders attend the United Nations General Assembly; and during important milestones every ten years, the leaders of the five permanent members usually gather in the U.S.

【Every year, many countries' leaders attend the United Nations General Assembly】

It is not difficult to see that this itself reflects a part of the current world order—the U.S., although declining, is still the nominal hegemon, playing a leading role in international affairs through its strong military, economic, and cultural influence, shaping the world order.

However, this year might be different.

As the presidential aide responsible for arranging Putin's foreign visits, Ushakov's statements are generally reliable. If China and Russia celebrate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations during the September 3rd military parade, it would mean that the leaders of the two countries may not attend another event commemorating the 80th anniversary of the United Nations in the U.S.

If Putin's absence has limited impact on the 80th-anniversary General Assembly of the United Nations, then the absence of the Chinese leader would fundamentally affect the significance or "value" of the entire assembly.

At such an important occasion, two of the five permanent members are absent, which would be hard for the U.S., as the host, to maintain face. Perhaps, in Trump's original plan, after quickly resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, both the Chinese and Russian leaders would be present.

In fact, Trump's face is secondary; more importantly, the absence of the leaders of China and Russia from the United Nations General Assembly, and the two countries separately holding commemorative activities for the 80th anniversary of the United Nations, would be interpreted by the outside world as a challenge and reorganization of the world order.

Of course, we will ultimately have to wait for official announcements. In the current uncertain international situation, no one can predict what will happen in two months.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521588875082187298/

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