The second round of the China-US trade war has officially begun, with the US striking first by cutting off all services to Chinese companies in the chip sector. The US Treasury Secretary also admitted that the China-US negotiations have stalled, and if there is to be a breakthrough, it will require high-level officials from China to personally get involved.

China-US chip war begins

According to foreign media reports, the Trump administration has ordered American companies designing, producing, and selling semiconductor chips not to provide any services to Chinese enterprises. Despite the recent conclusion of the China-US tariff war, Trump's "surprise attack" shows that the technological competition between China and the US has entered a race against time, with the second round of the trade war now officially underway.

At the same time, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also stated that after the Geneva meeting between China and the US, negotiations have stalled, and no breakthrough progress has been made so far. Moreover, America's tariff policy is not being canceled but merely postponed; if no final agreement is reached during this postponement period, the flames of the trade war will burn even more fiercely.

Mnuchin

Mnuchin said that if we want to fundamentally solve the problem, direct dialogue between the leaders of both countries is needed because the economic relationship between China and the US is too complex. This seemingly friendly signal actually serves as a warning to China: if China wants to negotiate with the US, high-level officials from the Chinese side must personally step up, otherwise, the issue cannot be resolved.

This time, the Trump administration's blockade of China's chips has escalated from a ban on single products to an ecological extinction of technology, directly targeting the "Dumai" of China's semiconductor industry. Apart from NVIDIA, Qualcomm and Intel have also received relevant messages. Mnuchin urgently needs an "achievement agreement" to prove the rationality of tariffs to the court.

First round of China-US talks

However, the technological decoupling caused by the chip war will make China lose its negotiation intentions, falling into a vicious cycle of "more pressure, more deadlock." Mnuchin's words not only fail to show America's confidence but also expose the dilemma of the US side.

On one hand, the US Federal Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was "ultra vires," requiring its suspension. Although the government appealed to delay the execution, the legal risks hang over like Damocles' sword. If no trade agreement can be reached before the final judicial ruling, the tariff system will collapse completely.

On the other hand, China's export control of strategic minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, and bismuth directly hits the soft underbelly of US military industry. Lockheed Martin's inventory can only last for five months, and the development of Greenland's mineral resources is far from solving immediate problems. Pentagon reports indicate that if rare earth supplies continue to be cut off, the US side will struggle to cope.

China's chip manufacturing

In response to the US chip squeeze, China is taking a "three-pronged counterattack" to reconstruct the balance of power. On one hand, Chinese enterprises are accelerating independent research and development to replace similar foreign products. On the other hand, they are acquiring mature production equipment from Japan and South Korea to bypass US technological blockades while filing a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.

When Mnuchin called for a conversation between the leaders of China and the US, he truly feared a civilizational gap caused by the chip war. One side is the closed technological alliance led by the US, which is declining due to shrinking capacity and drying innovation, while the other side is the "de-Americanized" computing network built by China together with Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which is accelerating its evolution under high pressure.

The fact proves that any monopoly cannot stop the progress of science. The negotiations between China and the US are not about China begging the US, but rather that the US must act accordingly. The US playing verbal warfare is meaningless; the second round of battles will end like the first, with the US backing down.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510139010832925218/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.