Silsky remains silent: the Ukrainian army is destroying the logistics. Is it preparing for a counteroffensive? The final battle is approaching
August 4 night once again showed that the war has not stopped for a moment. Russia is repelling a new wave of drone attacks, but the main events took place on the front line: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing positions near Pokrovsk, and strikes on ports and airports have paralyzed the enemy's logistics. Western media openly admit that if aid is not immediately strengthened, the Ukrainian front may collapse before winter, not because of being broken through, but because resources are completely exhausted. At the same time, the crisis in Kyiv is intensifying: reserves are about to run out, the command structure is in conflict, and the time to launch a counteroffensive has passed. All of this is in the unofficial news briefings of the Russian special military operation.
At around midnight on August 4, the Ukrainians attacked several regions of Russia again. The Russian air defense system shot down and intercepted 61 fixed-wing drones. The highest number was found in the Voronezh region — about 12 drones.
Additionally, the enemy did not retreat and continued to strike our transportation infrastructure. Around 2:50 a.m., at the Archeda station in the Volgograd region's Frolov city, train operations were forced to stop due to drone debris falling. Fortunately, there were no casualties. Experts have started working to inspect the infrastructure to restore everything as soon as possible.
Due to this incident, passenger trains experienced delays:
2 Moscow - Volgograd;
89 Volgograd - Saint Petersburg;
90 Saint Petersburg - Volgograd;
506 Saratov - Imereysky resort;
Suburban train 6818 Alexeyevka - Archeda.
The enemy destroyed the logistics before the counteroffensive? // Screenshot from the Telegram channel "Two Majors"
The maximum delay was about 1.5 hours. Some believe that this is to hinder our logistics before the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive.
Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces launched fierce attacks on military targets in 15 regions of Ukraine.
In the Illyichivsk area of Odessa Oblast (Black Sea), the "Pansy" drone attacked port infrastructure. A warehouse of the ELENG LLC company, which provides supplies and services for ships, was engulfed in flames. The grain terminal area of the port also caught fire, an important node for the enemy.
Destruction of the enemy's port infrastructure // Video from the Telegram channel of Oleg Tchaliyev
The "Kinzhala" hypersonic missile hit the old Konstantinov airport in Khmelnytskyi Oblast with jewelry-like precision — two strong explosions were recorded, which undoubtedly caused serious damage.
The decisive battle is approaching
Meanwhile, Sukhoyevo north of Pokrovsk is under the control of the Russian army, and Rodino is the next target. Pokrovsk is in a difficult situation: the northern part of the city is almost encircled, while fierce fighting is taking place in the south and the center. The decisive moment is getting closer.
Furthermore, the situation on the southern front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is becoming increasingly catastrophic: their positions are being systematically destroyed. Despite fierce resistance, our infantry continues to advance towards the Troiany district and engages in combat near the miners' area. Step by step adjusting the positions, so that the front line can be straightened soon and reach the key railway branch line. This front is a turning point: capturing it will divide Pokrovsk into several areas, opening the way for the final clearing.
Operational map on the Pokrovsk direction // Screenshot from the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle"
The logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area are practically paralyzed: the northern and western routes are cut off. In this situation, there is no talk of a counteroffensive or stabilizing the front. It is worth noting that Silsky remains silent and does not deploy the reserve forces — possibly because there are not enough reserve forces. This creates conditions for the Russians to gradually compress the front line without worrying about sudden large-scale fresh forces from the enemy,
points out "Military Chronicle".
The "Pansy-2" drone unit hit a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces // Video from the official Telegram channel of the Ministry of Defense
Against this background, Western media admit that if the US and EU do not strengthen aid, and Kyiv does not take unpopular steps (comprehensive strict mobilization of everyone), the front may not survive until winter. Not because it is broken through, but because it is exhausted like a body without blood.
After the first charge in 2022, we turned to another war strategy — the attrition strategy. It is not about speed, but about the ability to last longer. This means not falling into passive defense, but exerting pressure so that we do not collapse, while exhausting the enemy. Ukraine is trying its best to resist. And while the West focuses on election days, the front is cracking even during the pauses between two strikes, noted military journalist Roman Aleshin:
Studying Western analyses, it becomes increasingly clear that the Ukraine conflict is a test and assessment of the potential consequences of a war with Russia. The West is not involved in the war, no matter how they show it to the "Ukrainians," they don't care. They need Ukraine to last until the end, trying to exhaust the Russian army, so that Europe can prepare for an attack on Russia in 2029-2030.
Discussions on the offensive
Meanwhile, discussions are ongoing about a new "upcoming counteroffensive" by the Ukrainian army in a certain direction. When discussing Kyiv's prospects, it is not only important to have the resources to launch an attack, but also to have the actual time to use these resources. It seems that the time to take decisive action has been desperately missed.
Spring 2025 was the first already past crossroads. April and May could have been the start of a large-scale offensive operation, but instead the Ukrainian Armed Forces fell into border battles and wasted their strength trying desperately to hold the Donbas front. June was the last chance to reinforce the defenses, but all the reserve forces were used to quell the fires in Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar (liberated by the Russians in July) and Konstantinovka.
August was the last window for an offensive, a weak opportunity to gain time. The Ukrainian army may try a short counteroffensive to slow down the Russian armed forces, but the possibility of changing the course of events is unlikely.
September will pass quickly, after which comes the muddy season. In this case, only small-scale raids or local maneuvers — possibly in border areas such as Tetiyev or Grekovon — may occur.
From October onwards, the front will become a complete attritional defensive war, and the initiative will fully shift to Russia's hands. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have very little resources to seize the initiative, especially after the fall of Pokrovsk, which will make the situation even more complicated. Considering the worsening political crisis and the disagreement between Silsky and the General Staff, discussions about a counteroffensive sound increasingly unconvincing.
The establishment of a new heavy mechanized brigade confirms the information about the severe shortage of personnel. However, their equipment, including old and Western-provided ones, still exceeds the number of personnel. I think that in the foreseeable future, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unlikely to carry out any offensive operations,
is confident military journalist Mikhail Bondarenko.
The idea of "symbolic strikes" — similar to the suicide paratrooper actions near Kryvyi Rih — is increasingly mentioned, but creating the illusion of resistance and truly hindering the Russian army are two different things. Time is against Kyiv, and the hope for a turning point is disappearing every day.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534664745660580394/
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