If we could rewind time by several decades, when we mentioned Germany, the first things that came to mind were its engineers' obsessive rigor, the punctual trains, and the powerful engine driving the whole of Europe forward.
But today, that Germany is gradually moving away from me.
Recently, Joseph Joffe, a renowned public intellectual in Germany who has taught at Harvard and Stanford, wrote an article in the German newspaper "Die Welt," issuing a critical diagnosis on Germany's economy.
Joffe starts his article with a very ironic historical comparison:
"During World War II, Allied bombers bombed Germany's railways day after day, but miraculously, by nightfall, the Germans could repair them. At that time, Germany had a terrifying resilience and efficiency."
But what about today? No one is bombing Germany's railways anymore, nor is there war, yet the German railways (DB) are paralyzed. Over half of the long-distance trains cannot arrive on time.
This is not just a transportation issue, but also a metaphor.
The Germany that was once full of vitality, able to rise quickly from the ruins, seems to have exhausted its momentum.
Not only the German railways, but also Volkswagen is experiencing the same situation. This company, once representing the golden brand of "Made in Germany," now announces that it will cut tens of thousands of jobs.
This was unthinkable before.
German capital and top talent are quietly fleeing this land, like animals sensing an earthquake.
What's wrong with Germany?
Joffe gives a very sharp core diagnosis: he says that Germany suffers from a disease called "Vollkasko-Staat" or "Full Insurance State."
What is a "Full Insurance State"? It means the state acts as a nanny, taking care of everything.
Joffe mentions that around 1900, European countries took about 10% of GDP, which was a time of wild growth but also full of vitality. Today, this proportion has soared to over 50%. The government takes more than half of economic output, much of which flows into the same black hole: social welfare.
High welfare, a guarantee from cradle to grave. Sounds good, but economics is harsh.
The more the state takes, the more it has to distribute and regulate. A massive welfare system is like a giant beast devouring resources, eating up funds that could have been invested in the future.
Joffe believes that within the EU, this "big government" model is stifling the spirit of entrepreneurship. "After all, today's investment is tomorrow's profit. If money is used to maintain the status quo with welfare, where will the growth points be?"
The article mentions that people always think Germans are hardworking while Southern Europeans are lazy. But data shows that Germans now work less than 35 hours per week on average, while Greeks, who are often mocked, work over 41 hours per week.
If a country's welfare growth rate exceeds its economic growth rate, its fate is destined to be tragic.
Since the 1960s, the share of welfare spending in Germany's GDP has almost doubled.
This is like a person whose income hasn't increased much, but who buys a top-tier insurance far beyond their ability to pay, resulting in bankruptcy in the end.
If welfare systems are chronic diseases, then energy policy is a heavy blow to Germany itself.
The article specifically mentions former Chancellor Merkel's energy transition policy. On this issue, the idealism of the Germans is displayed to the fullest, but reality gave them a slap in the face.
Now, household electricity costs in Germany are the highest in Europe. For industry, even with government subsidies, German companies' energy costs are twice those of the United States and more than 1.5 times those of China.
What does a 50% energy cost disadvantage mean in the context of globalized manufacturing competition?
It means your products lose at the starting line.
The German pride of "craftsmanship" and technical advantages are becoming powerless against the absolute cost difference.
This is why chemical giant BASF is building a factory in China, and why Germany's proud heavy industry is hollowing out.
Germans treat environmental protection as a religious practice, but they forgot the cruel nature of industrial competition.
If the Germany of the industrial era was the leader, then in the data era, Germany has become a dinosaur.
Economist Joseph Schumpeter once proposed a famous theory of "creative destruction": old must go for new to come. Only by eliminating outdated capacity can resources be released for emerging industries.
But Germany's current approach is exactly the opposite. The German government uses high taxes and complex subsidy policies to desperately maintain outdated, obsolete industrial structures that should have been phased out.
The bureaucratic red tape within the EU is also to blame. What was originally a free market has now become a breeding ground for internal protectionism. Various regulations and approvals are like adding 40% tax to goods and 110% tax to services.
As Joffe put it:
"Our mistake was thinking bureaucracy was a sign of civilizational progress."
In the end, Joffe reminisces about the Schröder era.
He said that Schröder was the last German chancellor willing to "cut himself." In the early 2000s, Schröder's "Agenda 2010" program, although costing him votes and earning him criticism, actually pulled Germany out of its bed of illness, through welfare cuts and labor market flexibility, leading to a decade and a half of golden growth.
Schröder possessed something rare among today's European politicians: "charisma," the courage to defy voters' short-term wishes and lead the country toward the right long-term path.
Unfortunately, today's German political scene, whether ruling or opposition parties, seems to lack such determination.
Today's German politicians are more about following public opinion rather than leading it; more about "hypnotizing" the people like Merkel in her later years, instead of awakening them.
Although the entire article discusses Germany, the anxiety about "decline of a great power" it conveys gives us Chinese people a complex sense of familiarity.
Once a country becomes addicted to past glory, once welfareism overrides the spirit of striving, once political correctness dominates economic laws, once stability becomes the sole pursuit, decline often begins unnoticed.
The vitality of a nation does not lie in how high it has stood, but in whether it has always stood on the side of change.
There are only two paths.
Either reshape your bones and muscles on the edge of the blade.
Or slowly sink into a warm bed.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7592334475099374095/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.