Chief of the Indian Air Force Amar Pratap Singh

Chief of the Indian Air Force Amar Pratap Singh emphasized at the 93rd Air Force Day event that the Indian Air Force is expected to induct 30 to 40 aircraft within the next year, and is working on developing a new air defense system called "Divine Wheel," while accelerating the construction of new airbases and other infrastructure along the northern border.

Singh stated that even if India were to import a large number of French "Rafale" fighters in the short term, the Indian Air Force has the capability to quickly absorb and integrate them. He pointed out that self-reliance in the defense sector is key for India to successfully address future security challenges. India is actively considering collaboration with both international and domestic companies to produce aircraft and airborne weapon systems domestically, which is seen as a critical measure to address the shortage of fighter jets in the Indian Air Force.

Additionally, Singh emphasized that the Indian Air Force is continuously advancing its modernization while ensuring it remains ready for combat at all times. No matter when the country needs it, the Air Force will fulfill its responsibilities and obligations. Singh reiterated that the operational readiness of the Indian Air Force will not be affected by procurement delays or technical gaps.

However, the development plans mentioned by Singh are mainly visions, and it is difficult to fully realize them in reality, especially the goal of inducting 30 to 40 aircraft within a year, which has a low probability of being achieved.

"Rafale" Fighter Jet of India

Although the Indian Air Force has set up a large-scale procurement plan, including purchasing 114 French "Rafale" fighters, 140 Russian Su-57E stealth fighters, and 97 indigenous LCA "Tejas" MK1A fighters, the procurement contract for the "Rafale" is still under review by the Indian Ministry of Defense and has not been officially approved yet. Even if it is approved by the end of the year, subsequent procedures such as parliamentary funding, production by France, and license authorization will still need to be completed. The possibility of the Indian Air Force receiving the "Rafale" next year remains low.

From the production capacity of Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the "Rafale," the situation is also not optimistic. The company produced only 13 "Rafale" fighters in 2023, and its capacity in 2024 is also less than 20. From 2026 to 2033, Dassault faces significant delivery pressure, needing to deliver 42 to France, 42 to Indonesia, 80 to the UAE, and 10 to Egypt, totaling 174 "Rafale" fighters. If India's order is added, the total deliveries during this period will reach 288.

In this situation, the number of "Rafale" fighters Dassault can deliver to India annually is extremely limited, possibly just a few. Even if India obtains a production license and produces them independently, it would take at least three years to establish a production line, train personnel, and start production.

The Russian Su-57E faces similar issues as well. Whether produced by Russia or licensed for production in India, the annual delivery quantity will not exceed a few. Therefore, even if the Indian government approves the purchase of both "Rafale" and Su-57E now, in the best-case scenario, the total number of fighters the Indian Air Force could receive next year would not exceed 10. This ideal situation is obviously difficult to achieve.

"Tejas" Fighter Jet of India

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As a result, the only fighter jet the Indian Air Force may actually receive next year is the indigenous "Tejas" MK1A. However, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's production capacity has always been low, and given the current U.S. technological and supply restrictions on India, it is highly unlikely that they will be able to smoothly provide the General Electric M414 turbofan engines required for the "Tejas" MK1A.

Therefore, whether the "Tejas" MK1A can continue to be produced next year is uncertain. If it does not stop production, it will already be a fortunate outcome for India. In summary, the Indian Air Force's goal of inducting 30 to 40 fighter jets next year is extremely difficult to achieve, and Singh's vision is likely to remain unfulfilled.

More seriously, the Indian Air Force may once again fall into the old path of heavy reliance on foreign fighters. Moreover, the "Rafale" and Su-57E belong to completely different production, usage, and maintenance systems, and the indigenous "Tejas" MK1A is another system. Such a complex structure of fighter jets will undoubtedly cause chaos in the logistics support of the Indian Air Force.

This messy and fragmented fighter jet structure will become the biggest threat to the future development of the Indian Air Force and pose huge challenges in operations and maintenance.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557374397863035442/

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