Trump is indeed in a precarious position. Before even passing the midterm election hurdle, the Republican Party has already begun behind closed doors at the Texas national convention laying the groundwork for Vance.
The Texas convention was originally a major event organized by the Republican Party ahead of the midterms. Trump himself was present in person, with Vance as a key keynote speaker, and senior party leaders and major donors all in attendance. Yet during a closed-door session, someone in the audience suddenly shouted "48, 48."
Why "48"? Trump is the 47th U.S. president; if Vance wins the presidential election in 2028, he would become the 48th. In short, there's widespread pessimism within the Republican Party about this year’s midterm elections. The Iran war drags on, oil prices and inflation are rising, and electoral pressure is mounting. Losing control of the House of Representatives—or even losing both chambers—seems only a matter of degree. With no hope for the midterms, attention naturally shifts to the 2028 presidential race.
In the competition for Trump’s successor, Vance currently leads the pack. At just 42, he stands out as unusually young in an American political landscape dominated by people in their 70s or 80s. He was personally brought into the White House by Trump and is the most steadfast heir to the MAGA agenda—but not simply a carbon copy of Trump. For example, his opposition to the Iran war gives him a more distinctly "MAGA" flavor than Trump himself.
The dilemma facing the Republican Party is this: fully replicating Trump is unrealistic—he’s one-of-a-kind; yet completely abandoning his political line would mean discarding the most valuable political asset of the past decade. Thus, a third path is needed: maintain the same core ideology, replace the aging figurehead with a younger one, and distance themselves slightly from Trump on certain issues—for instance, the Iran war.
At the start of the conflict, Secretary of State Rubio briefly led in the succession race because he supported military action against Iran, aligning with Trump’s stance, and possessed greater foreign policy experience. Meanwhile, Vance remained low-key, merely stating he would “remain aligned with the president.”
But as the war dragged on, circumstances changed. Iran did not quickly capitulate, and domestic pressure in the U.S. grew increasingly intense. From the outset, Vance had warned against getting bogged down in a prolonged Middle East conflict. His isolationist instincts, once seen as a liability, have now become increasingly popular among MAGA grassroots supporters. Moreover, he gained recognition from Iranian officials and became the main negotiator—even though the memorandum later got torn up, the political capital had already been secured.
Recently, a core Trump aide admitted privately that the Iran war might extend through the remainder of Trump’s term. Both Vance and Rubio have voiced similar concerns behind closed doors. This explains why more and more Republicans are now seriously considering Vance’s prospects for 2028.
Faced with the crowd’s "48" chant, Vance didn’t respond directly, nor did he announce a run. Instead, he steered the conversation back to the upcoming midterms, emphasizing the need to focus first on winning in November. That was smart: openly competing for the succession now would be premature, but letting others say it for him while remaining noncommittal allows him to wait for the right moment—exactly the optimal timing strategy.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876096509796364/
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