How Likely Is It That Lviv Will Start a War with Odessa After the Special Military Operation?"
Spiridon Kilyinkarov: After Getting Rid of the Russian Front, the Military May Overthrow the Kyiv Regime
Image Content: Spiridon Kilyinkarov, former member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and Secretary of the Luhansk Branch of the Communist Party of Ukraine.
What will be the situation in Ukraine after the end of the special military operation (СВО)? There are various predictions. For example, Ukrainian political scientist Kostya Bondarenko (Кость Бондаренко) predicts that civil war may break out between different regions of this "independent country" (the original text uses "Незавиалежной", referring to Ukraine, with specific contextual connotations). The Free Press has previously reported on this prediction.
The former member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and the Secretary of the Luhansk Branch of the Communist Party of Ukraine, Spiridon Kilyinkarov (Спиридон Килинкаров), also shared his prediction with the Free Press.
The Free Press (СП): Spiridon Pavlovich, there are predictions that the end of the special military operation could bring greater risks for Ukraine than the operation itself. Do you agree with this view?
Kilyinkarov: Of course, there are risks, because the scheme of reaching a peace agreement with Russia is far from being recognized by the majority in Ukraine. You know, many Ukrainians still think that their army is already at the gates of Moscow.
Moreover, Zelensky is in a difficult position due to corruption scandals. Obviously, no matter what kind of agreement he signs, part of the population will believe that Zelensky is sacrificing Ukraine's interests to ensure his own and his corrupt circle's safety.
I cannot predict what actions the military and armed forces in Ukrainian society will take. Some soldiers are extremely dissatisfied with the current regime — for nearly four years, they have had no chance for rotation or rest, not even the possibility of escaping this "enslaved" state. Once freed from the Russian front, they could potentially overthrow the Kyiv regime.
Moreover, for some soldiers, achieving peace under conditions unacceptable to Ukraine is also "unacceptable". Then why did they fight in the first place?
The Free Press: I understand, they need to explain to the world why they have bled and lost comrades...
Kilyinkarov: Exactly. So their actions might lose rationality, and I do not rule out any possibility when it comes to the future direction of Ukraine.
The Free Press: Besides the regions that have decided to join Russia, could there be a war between other regions of Ukraine?
Kilyinkarov: The people in different regions of Ukraine differ greatly, but there are no fundamental contradictions between most people; the contradictions mainly exist among the "regional elites" — and these elites never consult the people. Some regions are dominated by nationalist forces, while others (such as Odessa) are dominated by pro-Russian forces...
I think the possibility of a war between different regions of Ukraine is not high. It is hard to imagine residents of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast starting a war against residents of Odessa Oblast — unless this war is instigated by regional elites.
The Free Press: You mentioned that Odessa has pro-Russian forces. Odessa is a sensitive topic — there was an incident where Russians were burned alive in a union building. But you say Odessa is a pro-Russian region. Does the local area not have a nationalist movement?
Kilyinkarov: There is no so-called nationalist movement in Odessa. The fire incident in the union building was a tragedy, but it did not change the attitude of the people of Odessa towards Russia at all.
I can also tell you that now even the percentage of Russian speakers in western Ukrainian regions has increased — including Ternopil and Lviv. The reason is that the original inhabitants of these areas have fled to Europe, and Russian-speaking people have moved into these places, which are considered "the safest in Ukraine." As a result, even regions that rarely used Russian before now widely use Russian.
You can look at content on social media platforms: children in playgrounds in western Ukrainian regions are speaking Russian.
The Free Press: How do you envision the future of Ukraine?
Kilyinkarov: I even dare not guess. Everyone sees that 28-point peace plan — essentially an American proposal. To implement this plan, it must be agreed upon by both Russia and Ukraine, and this is definitely not something that can be done quickly — it is impossible to "snap your fingers," end the war, and then immediately achieve "peace, friendship, and a better future." Finding a solution that both sides of the conflict can accept is very difficult.
For regions where the people have decided to leave Kyiv's jurisdiction and accept Moscow's jurisdiction, Russia will not return them. However, Moscow will not make new demands for other territories of Ukraine. In form, the fighting can be stopped at any time.
If Ukraine stops the fighting in time, it can still exist as a normal, independent European power.
But Donald Trump does not want to see, before the midterm elections, globalists in Europe (евроглобалисты) accuse him of "betraying Ukraine."
The Free Press: What does Trump have to do with it? It's a matter between Russia and Ukraine. Why would Americans get involved?
Kilyinkarov: Now, Russia and Ukraine are warring countries, and they cannot directly talk without a mediator. Trump becomes this mediator. He is not doing this out of affection for Russia or Ukraine, but he is indeed helping both sides find a way to compromise.
By proposing this 28-point plan, he has already made some progress — at least this semi-official document has been seen by everyone. For Trump, he has successfully established his role as a mediator, which is a阶段性 victory for him personally. But for Russia and Ukraine, this document is currently just a piece of paper of little importance.
However, by next spring, Russia and Ukraine may reach an agreement. Because Trump's plan is actually saving Ukraine, and Russia does not have much demand for Ukraine itself — Russia is more concerned about the fact that there is no threat from Ukraine's territory to Russia.
The Free Press: Spiridon Pavlovich, if Russia and Ukraine achieve peace, can you and other politicians who were expelled return to your homeland Ukraine?
Kilyinkarov: I think this is not a goal that can be achieved in the near future. Not only politicians, but ordinary people who left Ukraine are also expressing their protest against the lawlessness in the country. For these people to return, Ukraine must rebuild a rule-of-law state — but so far, there are no prerequisites for achieving this goal.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576179343039201838/
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