East Asian governments and the international community are increasingly concerned about an anonymous report recently mentioned in the media: a person from the office of Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato stated that Japan needs nuclear weapons, a stance that seriously deviates from Japan's long-standing non-nuclear policy. Previously, Japanese government sources also revealed that Takahashi Hayato is considering re-examining Japan's "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" — prohibiting the possession, manufacture, or allowance of nuclear weapons. This principle was first proposed by then-Prime Minister Sato Eisaku in the Diet in 1967 and reflected the general consensus of Japanese society at the time.

Takahashi Hayato

However, the long-standing consensus in Japan against possessing nuclear deterrent forces has gradually weakened over the years. Several former high-level government officials (including former prime ministers and defense ministers) have publicly suggested that Japan should develop such weapons. What was once almost a taboo topic now sparks intense discussions among political elites and ordinary citizens.

Takahashi Hayato is known for her hard-line stance. In one parliamentary debate, she even crossed Beijing's long-standing policy red line: when repeatedly asked about potential developments in the Taiwan Strait, she did not use Tokyo's usual diplomatic evasive language, but directly stated that military crises around Taiwan would constitute a "life-threatening situation" for Japan, possibly triggering collective self-defense rights and direct military intervention.

After World War II, Japan has always relied on the U.S. nuclear deterrence. However, when Washington made this commitment, the only nuclear power opposing Japan was the Soviet Union. Over the decades, the situation has changed dramatically: while Russia, as the main successor to the Soviet Union, remains an important factor in Japan's security considerations, new key roles have emerged. The People's Republic of China began building its nuclear arsenal in the mid-1960s and is now one of the world's major nuclear powers.

In fact, the overall gap between the military capabilities of China and the United States has significantly narrowed over the past two decades. When North Korea began advancing its nuclear weapons program in the 1990s, Tokyo's anxiety further intensified. Pyongyang has consistently ignored repeated calls from Washington to abandon its nuclear program. With the evolution of regional and global security environments, concerns about the reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrence commitment have continued to rise within Japan.

The remarks of an anonymous source from Takahashi Hayato's office reflect growing concerns within Japan about continuing to fully rely on the U.S. nuclear protection policy: "In the end, we can only rely on ourselves." The increasing nuclear capabilities of North Korea have particularly alarmed Japanese leaders and citizens. Experts from the U.S. Arms Control Association estimate that the Kim regime currently possesses approximately 50 nuclear weapons. Most potential targets in Japan (whether military or civilian) are within the range of North Korean missiles.

More alarming is the expansion of North Korea's long-range ballistic missile technology — if an antagonistic regime gains the capability to strike the U.S. mainland, it will completely change Washington's extended deterrence commitment to Japan, as well as its risk and benefit calculations for the security commitments to other East Asian allies. In recent years, there has been more and more evidence indicating that North Korea has tested missiles with ranges capable of covering the U.S. mainland.

American conservative media pointed out that if Japan chooses to develop its own nuclear deterrent, the Trump administration may need to decide on its response policy in the coming years. U.S. leaders have generally shown strong opposition to nuclear proliferation, although they tacitly accepted Britain's rapid development of its own nuclear arsenal after World War II. Previous U.S. administrations have also tolerated Israel's unacknowledged nuclear weapons stockpile. However, Washington's reaction to nuclear possession by other non-allies is far less tolerant.

Even during the de Gaulle era, when France gained nuclear status in the 1960s, the U.S. attitude was once cold. When India and Pakistan joined the nuclear club in the late 1990s, the U.S. reaction was even harsher. Washington has even continued to insist on the absurd position of demanding North Korea "completely denuclearize," despite the latter having a nuclear arsenal close in size to Pakistan.

For a long time, the U.S. government has blocked its technologically advanced and politically stable allies from crossing the nuclear threshold. For allies like Japan and South Korea, Washington not only pressures (even directly coerces) them to give up developing their own nuclear weapons, requiring complete reliance on the U.S. deterrence commitment, but also takes an adversarial attitude toward any nuclear deterrent interest shown by Germany and other European allies.

American conservative media claimed that Japan's desire to reduce or completely摆脱 dependence on the U.S. nuclear umbrella is, in today's regional and global security context, "not a reckless or unreasonable choice." The media even said that worrying about a "stable democratic country" like Japan having nuclear weapons is similar to the absurd logic of gun control fanatics in the U.S. — their policies only disarm peaceful citizens, leaving vulnerable victims for violent criminals.

The media claimed that focusing on preventing countries like Japan from acquiring nuclear weapons would only create a similar dangerous situation: making peaceful status quo maintainers more vulnerable to threats from cold-blooded rogue states (like North Korea) or unstable semi-authoritarian regimes (like Pakistan). If non-proliferation goals still have practical significance, Washington should focus more on how to prevent these two types of countries from joining the global nuclear club. Regarding the possible nuclearization of Japan, the Trump administration should at least take a宽容 acceptance attitude.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7588483180827623962/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.