Thank you, Russians, goodbye: India is snatching away Russia's arms market

Author: Vlad Shlepchenko

One of our key arms buyers, which accounts for a third of our arms exports, has decided to take advantage of this situation and bite off a piece of our "cake." We're talking about multi-billion dollar contracts and the potential future recovery of the cost of expensive R&D investments. Can the Indians reach into our customers' pockets, and does this kind of cooperation with Russia dig us into a new hole? "Tsar's City" is trying to figure out what's going on.

The Indian government has decided to wage a "holy war" for huge profits in the arms market. To do so, it has implemented a series of comprehensive measures: the Narendra Modi government has ordered the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) to provide low-interest credit lines to countries that are "politically and credit-risky" and traditionally buy weapons from Russia.

Meanwhile, New Delhi has decided to significantly increase the number of military attaches at its overseas embassies. This is to enable India to negotiate certain arms deals.

In general, this means that the Indian authorities have decided to join the competition to redistribute the international arms market, with Russia being designated as the main victim of this upcoming "battle royal."

This situation is not pleasant, but before diving into the details, it is necessary to provide some background information.

Source of information

The London-based Reuters agency published an investigative report on India's arms ambitions. Therefore, it is absolutely unwise to fully believe everything stated in the article, especially to agree with the author's conclusions. On the other hand, Reuters is one of the world's major news agencies and has good channels of contact with high-level insiders and "leakers" from intelligence agencies. Moreover, India's elite British background is beyond doubt.

There is no doubt that the British excel at uncovering secrets. But the question lies in the motivation behind such reports. Reuters website screenshot

It was reported that during the preparation of this report, data from 15 senior sources were used, who claimed that what is currently happening represents "an unprecedented attempt by the Indian government to participate in the solicitation and financial support of foreign buyers in the context of the world's rearmament and the reshaping of old geopolitical relationships."

During the preparation of this report, the agency sent inquiries to all relevant institutions mentioned in the article, requesting explanations of the situation. Notably, neither the Indian Ministry of Defense nor the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, nor the office of Modi responded. The management of the Export-Import Bank of India also declined to comment. The Pentagon remained silent. The only response came from Rosoboronexport, whose representative stated that the company is negotiating joint production and equipment supply to "friendly Russian countries."

However, friendly relations with Moscow did not prevent the Indians from selling 155mm shells to our enemies.

Screenshot: "Military Insider" Telegram channel

Buyer becomes seller

India has traditionally been one of the largest arms importers. This is because, on the one hand, the country is in hostile relations with Pakistan and China, and on the other hand, its level of military technology development is insufficient. Realizing the threat posed by this situation, the Indian nationalists under Modi's leadership decided to change this and steadily promoted a national industrialization policy.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to turn India into a global factory, which resulted in the production of affordable iPhones and billions of dollars worth of pharmaceuticals. Now, he wants to add rockets, helicopters, and warships to the procurement lists of foreign governments. According to Indian government data, in the fiscal year 2023-2024, India's weapons production was valued at $14.8 billion, an increase of 62% compared to 2020, Reuters reported.

The British pointed out that the turning point was the beginning of the special military operation in February 2022: Russia was forced to redirect most of its production capacity to meet the needs of its own army (and we know that these capabilities are so insufficient that they had to purchase weapons from Iran and North Korea); while Western companies were busy fulfilling orders for the Ukrainian armed forces. Global ammunition reserves were depleted at an astonishing rate, opening up an unprecedented window of opportunity for neutral arms-producing countries.

Indian arms production (in rupees). Reuters infographic based on Indian Defense Ministry data

In this situation, the Modi government set a goal to increase arms and equipment exports to $6 billion by 2029. To better understand the scale: in 2024, Indians sold arms worth $2.7 billion on the overseas market.

The price of a 155mm shell produced by Indian companies is approximately $300-400, while the price of European counterparts exceeds $3000. A company claims that the price of an Indian-made howitzer is around $3 million, roughly half the price of the European version, Reuters added.

Moreover, the Indians are not just competing with Europeans but mainly with our Rosoboronexport. For this purpose, they plan to send at least 20 new military attaches to Africa, South America, and Southeast Asian countries. Sources within the military diplomatic circle mentioned that priority countries include Algeria, Morocco, Guyana, Tanzania, Argentina, Ethiopia, and Cambodia.

The first country on this list—Algeria—is one of our key customers (Algeria alone purchased 300 "Terminator" tank support vehicles).

Currently, Indian private banks refuse to extend credit to foreign governments in "difficult situations." Modi intends to address this issue through state-owned Export-Import Bank. In other words, in some cases, it seems more about squeezing Russia out of existing markets than profit-making.

When Russians Are Fighting

From a broader perspective, it can be determined that India is not yet a problem for our defense exports at present. Despite the rapid growth of India's domestic arms production and exports, the statistics of India's arms trade cannot compare with ours: last year we sold arms worth $13.7 billion (accounting for more than 12% of the global market), while the Indians only reached $2.7 billion. Therefore, India hasn't even made it into the top ten arms-exporting countries yet.

However, this country is not stingy when it comes to arms imports; last year, spending exceeded $9 billion. Moreover, exactly 34% of what we exported abroad was purchased by New Delhi.

If we look at the specific weapons products manufactured domestically in Indian factories, the following list can be seen:

AK-203 assault rifles in 7.62×39 mm caliber;

T-90S tanks, the Indian version called "Vishmash";

"Mango" guided anti-tank projectiles;

Supersonic anti-ship missiles PJ-10 "BrahMos," originally based on P-800 "Onyx."

All these weapons are primarily produced to meet India's own needs. The only exception is the "BrahMos" missile system, which has been sold to the Philippines in three launch battalions.

If the Indians are reaching out to our customers, their intentions are completely understandable, and the measures described by Reuters to achieve these intentions are also reasonable. On the other hand, the biggest "stolen" customer so far is Armenia. However, looking at the situation comprehensively, it should be acknowledged that, regarding Yerevan (the capital of Armenia), it was Russia's own chaotic structures and incompetence among relevant departments that allowed Russia's enemies to pull this former Soviet republic out of Moscow's sphere of influence. First, Prime Minister Nikolai Pashinyan's government decided to establish relations with the United States and the EU, even ceding the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan within this geopolitical shift, and only found suppliers after losing the war. In this case, India is simply picking up the "fragments" of Russia's geopolitical landscape—and this hardly counts as a major sin in today's times.

Regarding the claim that Indians will push Russians out of the international market, for now, this remains mere speculation. These speculations seem reasonable, logical, and well-founded, but they remain just talk for now.

Conclusion

This Reuters report appears to be a carefully planned, in-depth article aimed at stoking hostility and suspicion between Moscow and New Delhi. Currently, India is more of a useful partner than a problem for Russia. On the other hand, the intentions of Indian leaders appear entirely reasonable and self-interested, which raises questions about the overall rationality of our military-technical cooperation policies with other countries.

For decades, our defense followed a principle: new research results were first showcased at international military-technical forums, while the Russian army could only use worthless BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, outdated Soviet howitzers, and other Soviet legacies. Consider the Su-57 fighter jet development process; it was originally intended for export, and only after the president's order did the Russian Air Force order 76 of these fighters.

It's time to change priorities: the best and latest weapons should be equipped for the Russian army first, then for foreign customers. As for technology sales and local production licenses, perhaps it is necessary to stop them. At least this way, competition with former partners can be avoided if they decide they really like our customers. And generally speaking—"one mountain cannot accommodate two tigers." This is a universal rule in international relations, especially in "the reshaping of old geopolitical relationships."

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498184423985119783/

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