Malcolm Kyoune, a Swedish writer, released a long article titled "America's National Security Dreamwalking Crisis" on February 20 this year, directly targeting the weaknesses of the U.S. Navy.

Kyoune pointed out that the current problems of the U.S. Navy are not just a few small issues, but rather the entire system is malfunctioning, from recruitment to ship repairs and the development of new equipment, all of which are falling behind.

Especially compared to the Chinese Navy, the gap is so large that it is heartbreaking. The senior leadership of the U.S. Navy clearly knows that if they were to face a real confrontation, their chances of winning are slim. Therefore, they prefer to create superficial appearances, delay projects, and maintain an illusion of being able to fight, rather than risk going to Asia-Pacific and facing setbacks.

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. Navy has lost its old opponent, the Soviet Union, and has been somewhat lost. Previously, they had strong power, and their fleets roamed everywhere, but now, many projects have gone wrong.

Taking the Zumwalt-class destroyers as an example, these were supposed to be future cards, but they ended up with cost overruns and unreliable performance, and only three were built before the project was abandoned. Then there are the littoral combat ships, originally designed for coastal operations, but after their commissioning, they have a lot of problems. Not only is the maintenance difficult, but they are also not durable.

Even the Ford-class aircraft carriers, which are large nuclear-powered vessels, have encountered electromagnetic catapult failures, and the testing process has been problematic. These issues are not accidental; the U.S. Navy's shipbuilding industry has declined severely. Shipyard equipment is aging, and workers are leaving quickly, making it impossible to even ensure maintenance during peacetime.

Not to mention recruiting, as young people are unwilling to join, leading to a shortage of personnel in the Navy, making it difficult to operate those ships. In his article, Kyoune mentioned that these structural problems exist across all branches of the U.S. military, but the Navy is the most prominent, as they have to face the vast ocean, while their opponents are moving faster and faster.

A report from the Pentagon itself states that China's shipbuilding capacity is about 230 times that of the United States.

During World War II, Japan's navy faced the United States, and the capacity gap was only 10 to 1, and Yamamoto Isoroku, the Japanese navy's chief, thought they could not win. Now, the gap between the U.S. and China is much larger, and it is a fantasy for the U.S. Navy to defeat its opponent in the Asia-Pacific region and near China's doorstep.

Kyoune uses history as a metaphor, saying that the current U.S. is like Japan in the past, lagging industrially but still hoping for tactical reversal. However, the reality is that the U.S. Navy lacks transport ships, escort ships, and supply ships, and fuel and precision-guided weapons are also insufficient. More seriously, many raw materials must be purchased from China, and now that the embargo has been imposed, the warehouses are empty.

In the Red Sea, when dealing with the Houthi rebels, the U.S. Navy barely managed to hold the line, but that was just a minor skirmish. If it were to face the Chinese Navy in the Asia-Pacific, these shortcomings would all become evident. Kyoune wrote that the American elite always regard China as the new Soviet Union, thinking this is a repetition of the Cold War, but the actual situation is more like the U.S.-Japan confrontation before World War II, where the U.S. is now the underdog.

The speed of the Chinese Navy is astonishing. For example, the 054B frigate went from being launched in August 2023 to being commissioned in January 2025, taking only 16 months. U.S. shipyards can't even imagine that.

The Constellation-class frigate project is a typical example of these problems within the U.S. Navy. Originally, this was a copy of the Italian and French joint FREMM design, which had been mature for years without major issues. The U.S. Navy bought it back and should have followed the design to save time and effort. However, they insisted on making changes, and after starting the project, they kept altering it, resulting in only 15% of the original design commonality, and the ship's weight increased by at least 759 tons, causing stability issues.

Kyoune analyzed in his article that this is not stupidity, but rather intentional. Because the senior leadership of the Navy knows that even if they build it, it will not change the balance of power. China can build ten or fifty ships of the same class, while the U.S. can barely produce one. The project started in 2020, and the first ship, USS Constellation, was supposed to be delivered in 2026, but it has now been delayed until 2029.

A report from the Congressional Research Service stated that the budget for fiscal year 2025 requested 1.17 billion dollars to purchase the seventh ship, but due to delays in the schedule, the cost per ship increased from 400 million to 1.3 billion. Navy officials admitted at a hearing that the design was not mature, the supply chain was blocked, and there was a shortage of workers.

The Fincantieri Marinette Marine shipyard is responsible for construction. When they cut the steel plates in 2022, they celebrated, but now the hull is only 10% completed, and the design is still being adjusted. The Navy even considers adding a second shipyard, but the problem remains unsolved, and the production rhythm is chaotic.

Why is the U.S. Navy so troubled? Kyoune gives a painful answer: they are not really trying to go to war, but rather to maintain their presence.

The politicians in Washington grossly overestimate the U.S. national strength, constantly urging the Navy to go to the Asia-Pacific to defeat the Chinese Navy. However, the leadership of the Navy clearly knows that this goal is absurd. Waging war is not the top priority; maintaining the image of being able to fight is key.

The Constellation-class became a "perpetual variable," continuously modified, packaged as a game-changer, to satisfy Congress.

Kyoune compares it to the finance minister of King Louis XVI before the French Revolution, who knew the problems were serious but dared not cut spending, fearing panic.

Now, the U.S. Navy is similar, with high debt and a hollowed-out industrial base, unwilling to take losses, fearing exposure of weaknesses. Maintaining the myth is more important than solving the problem. The Navy has become the decorator of the empire, barely holding the facade, even if it costs them personally.

References

U.S. Navy has a series of accidents, warships caught fire and then aircraft crashed, The Paper

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541321062135366207/

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