[Military Subspace] Author: Lele

Since the J-10CE made a big splash in South Asia, rumors about "J-35E ready for delivery" have been circulating. As the rumors became increasingly credible, the "Defence Securit Yasia" website also reviewed the entire process of the rumors, and everyone was surprised to find that this matter was not entirely baseless.

▲What "Defence Securit Yasia" said really seems to make sense.

In the summer of 2024, shortly after the suspension of J-10CE deliveries, Pakistani media began reporting on the "purchase of 40 J-35Es by the Pakistan Air Force," which caused quite a stir at the time and was seen as a major shift in AVIC exports. Soon after, further reports emerged stating that Pakistani pilots had already begun training in China. CNN also reported that Pakistan was procuring L-15 to meet the training needs for J-35Es. By the end of the year, the Pakistan Air Force officially mentioned that "J-35A would soon become part of the Pakistan Air Force." In April this year, with the visit of Pakistan Air Force Chief General Zahid Babar to China, the procurement of 40 J-35Es once again became the focus of public opinion.

▲Another country interested in J-35E, the UAE, bought L-15 early on.

Finally, the "Defence Securit Yasia" website claimed to have received information from the Pakistan Air Force stating that "AVIC agreed to advance the delivery time of J-35E by half a year, i.e., from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2026." The whole process looks very realistic, with several key turning points also conforming to fighter jet transaction conventions and having corresponding evidence, indeed not completely fabricated out of thin air. However, if it is said that J-35E will start exporting in 2026, it is too fast. From its first flight in 2021 to 2026, there is only less than five years' interval, completing all tests including the new engine is very difficult. Moreover, domestically itself has equipment demand for J-35, and simultaneously supplying both self-use and export just after the new model is mass-produced has never happened in the history of AVIC.

▲J-35's first flight time is relatively late.

However, the US aviation industry has actually done such things. In 1974, F-16 successfully completed its first flight and was delivered to the US Air Force four years later, while simultaneously delivering F-16 to four NATO countries according to previous agreements, ultimately resulting in the production of nearly 5000 aircraft in the series, with the US equipping less than half of them, creating a classic story. The reason why F-16 could develop so quickly and violate the then-US principle of restricting advanced equipment exports is because there was the heavy F-15 "precedent". Now J-35 faces a similar situation - the mass production of heavy J-20 is not insignificant, which also means that the development difficulty of J-35 has significantly decreased.

▲The scale of J-20 is combat capability.

More importantly, J-50 is now undergoing intensive test flights, overlapping with some parts of J-35's schedule - this is like F-35 completing its first flight during the F-16 test flight period. In this case, the domestic service scale of J-35 is bound to be limited, and the foreign trade market is the main market. In fact, F-16 stopped deliveries to the US military in 2005, and subsequent production including the transfer of production lines were all to meet export orders. In other words, if following the technology route of J-10, J-35 certainly cannot be delivered to Pakistan in 2026, but if domestically wants to draw inspiration from the development concept of F-16 and mainly target the international market, then delivering to Pakistan as soon as possible is valuable.

▲F-16's service career is truly classic.

However, the engine is a problem. In theory, almost all technologies of J-35 can refer to J-20, except for the engine - the latter uses two large thrust engines, while the former uses two medium thrust engines, with a significant size difference. This is different from J-20 and J-10 simultaneously mounting large thrust engines, just differing in quantity. Moreover, even if the large thrust technology of J-20 matures, it does not mean that the same-generation medium thrust technology is mature, after all, engines ultimately require a lot of practical testing. Additionally, since all fourth-generation fighters use large thrust engines, AVIC's accumulation in the medium thrust field is seriously insufficient. Whether it can provide mature power for J-35 by 2026 remains to be seen.

▲In the face of J-35's impending service, J-10C's victory seems a bit late.

Compared to this, the Fujian ship urgently needing J-35 on board is no longer a big problem. After all, the early electromagnetic catapult system was immature and required highly mature J-15T for testing, using the newly delivered J-35 would pose technical risks. Once the domestic electromagnetic catapult technology stabilizes, it will be the time for J-35 and even J-50 to go aboard.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506010509079052815/

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