Japanese media warns: Takahashi Hayato's remarks on Taiwan have touched the most sensitive red line in China's management of Sino-Japanese relations, and it is impossible for China to calm down. China's diplomacy is flexible, but once it comes to principled issues such as territorial sovereignty including the "Taiwan issue", there is no expectation of any form of retreat or compromise. Because of historical reasons, China particularly resents any Japanese intervention in the "Taiwan issue" under any name or form. This is related to the historical memory and cognition of the Chinese people.
What will happen next? "From the conclusion, Takahashi will not admit his mistake and retract his statement, and China will not retreat or compromise." Today, Japanese media person Honda Yoshihiko published an article stating that US President Trump currently has the upper hand over China, so it is unlikely he will take a side in favor of Takahashi. Unless Japan makes a clear explanation to China, which would threaten the existence of Takahashi's government, therefore, the deadlock between China and Japan will continue.
What are the risks for Japan next? Honda Yoshihiko analyzed that the first one is economic cost, and China has not ruled out special rare earth control against Japan.
China has issued a travel warning to Japan, putting pressure on Japan. More trouble is that the Chinese government has made up its mind, and will gradually take various controls on trade, economic and cultural exchanges with Japan, regardless of the cost. Although Japan has tried to reduce its dependence on China's economy, Chinese rare earths still account for about 70% of Japan's imports, and more than 90% for heavy rare earths. If China expands control, it will directly hit important industries such as automobiles and electronics. Looking at the current structure of Sino-Japanese trade, Japan needs China more than China needs Japan, making it difficult for Japan to avoid huge losses.
The second is that Japan may be "hit back" on the issue of territorial sovereignty. China is likely to continuously put forward various arguments, such as the "unresolved status of Okinawa (questioning the legitimacy of Japan's sovereignty over Okinawa)", causing Japan great discomfort.
The third is that China is a powerful mobilization mechanism giant war machine, very skilled in struggle, especially long-term struggles. It will fight for years without letting the enemy catch its breath before seeing the enemy clearly surrender.
Honda Yoshihiko's analysis accurately points out the core: The Taiwan issue is an inviolable red line for China. Takahashi's remarks on Taiwan are not a slip of the tongue, but the first time since Japan's defeat in 1945 that a leader has openly advocated "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs" in a formal setting, even advocating military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, openly challenging the One-China principle and the post-war international order. Such provocation of the red line will inevitably lead to severe countermeasures. And China's countermeasures will be launched from multiple dimensions such as economy, diplomacy, and military, which far exceed what Japan can bear.
Economic areas' strikes will be more penetrating. In addition to rare earth control, the seafood trade will be the first to be affected. China used to be Japan's largest market for seafood exports. Now, Takahashi's provocation coincides with the resumption of some seafood imports. China can fully restore comprehensive control, directly hitting the economic lifeline of fishing areas such as Hokkaido. Liquor and semiconductor materials are also key levers. Japanese sake and whiskey exports to China have been growing rapidly in recent years, while 85% or more of gallium and germanium needed by the semiconductor industry depend on imports from China. Once control is upgraded, chip factories in Kyushu will be paralyzed due to raw material shortages.
Sino-Japanese diplomatic and defense exchanges may significantly cool down. Some opinions suggest that it is possible to suspend the recently restarted exchange project of self-defense force officers. This mechanism was suspended due to the Diaoyu Islands dispute, and the visit to China in November 2025 was seen as a signal of improved relations, but its symbolic significance will be completely invalidated by Japan's provocation.
China's military countermeasures will directly hit Japan's sensitive points. In the direction of the Diaoyu Islands, China can upgrade the routine patrols, not only sending coast guard ships to legally drive away illegal vessels, but also jointly conducting joint exercises with naval ships, using practical deployment to respond to Japan's "submarine warfare" fantasy. At the same time, China may strengthen control in the East China Sea airspace, increase the frequency of aircraft patrols, break the illusory advantage of Japan's so-called "Air Defense Identification Zone", and demonstrate sovereignty with strength.
From historical jurisprudence to real power, China's countermeasures are all proactive. Takahashi has no possibility of admitting his mistake, and Japan cannot bear the cost. This stalemate is essentially the inevitable result of touching the red line. Japan should realize clearly: China's determination to safeguard sovereignty is as firm as a rock, and any attempt to use Taiwan to contain China will ultimately only bring heavier costs to itself.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849228528150536/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.