[Source/Observer Network Qi Qian] Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has acted recklessly, triggering a global tariff war. After the global market was shaken and panic spread across the United States, Trump's actions left people stunned: he quickly reversed his policies, targeting China, and repeatedly increased tariffs to 145%.
"However, Trump's tariff offensive against China may never achieve victory."
On April 11, CNN published multiple analysis articles stating that the Trump administration is now in a difficult situation, targeting China merely to save face by packaging an "embarrassing retreat" as a "great victory."
The analysis pointed out that given Trump's disorganized leadership style and his betrayal of allies, the United States may never win this tariff war. More importantly, China "is ready to fight until the end." At the same time, American consumers are about to feel "real economic pain."
Fang Ling, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, cited Chairman Mao Zedong's words on April 11: The United States is just a paper tiger.
Trump wants to "save face"
In less than ten days, Trump's tariff policy has been changing: first, he provoked a tariff war with the entire world; after the global stock markets were shaken, he suddenly suspended "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days while targeting China. Later, Trump repeatedly raised tariffs on China.
US tariffs on China have increased from 20% at first, to 54%, then 104%, 125%, and recently up to 145%.
"While Trump reverses his previous decisions and doubles tariffs on China, it may be to save face," CNN wrote. After the US stock market fell for several consecutive days and more warnings indicated that he would lead the US economy into a catastrophic recession, the White House "tried to package an embarrassing retreat as a great victory," and stubbornly claimed that other countries "are eager to reach an agreement with Washington."
At the same time, CNN believes that if China had not quickly retaliated, Trump might not have suddenly announced the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" against other countries. However, the White House claims that China is being targeted because China retaliated.
Regarding this, CNN warned that Trump's move has brought trade between the two largest economies in the world to a standstill, which will have serious negative impacts on the US and the global economy. Nick Marrow, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit in the UK, said that Trump is pushing the two countries toward a "hard decoupling," which will impact the entire global trade landscape.
The article points out that now, Trump has put himself in an even more awkward situation: he escalated the comprehensive trade conflict with China but seems clueless about how to win. "Trump mistakenly thought that pressure and arrogance would make China back down."
On April 9, China announced countermeasures, increasing the additional tariff rate on all imports from the United States from 34% to 84%, which took effect at 12:01 PM on April 10. On April 11, China announced raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also pointed out that the US's disproportionately high tariffs have become a numerical game; if they continue, China will disregard them.
Since April 2, the S&P 500 index has continued to fluctuate violently. The New York Times chart
"China has prepared for six years"
During this period of constant "changing orders," Trump has repeatedly publicly stated that he hopes to receive a call from China and claimed that "China wants to reach an agreement but doesn't know how." However, Trump's wishful thinking has fallen through.
CNN believes that although China insists on its negotiating stance, Trump's coercive attitude seems to have convinced China that the US does not want to negotiate.
Jakob Gunter, chief economic analyst at the German think tank MERICS, said that China's firm counterattack is based on the fact that they have made quite adequate preparations. CNN pointed out that during Trump's first term, the suppression of Huawei and other Chinese companies, as well as the initiation of the US-China trade dispute, served as a wake-up call for China. Since then, China has been preparing for the possibility of US-China trade friction.
"China has prepared for six years because they knew this could happen again," said Harry Harding, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego. During this time, China has been expanding overseas markets and promoting diversification of export trade.
Trump admitted on the 10th that his tariff policy has "transitional problems." Video screenshot
Experts say that today's China is better equipped to deal with broader trade conflicts. Data shows that compared to 2018, China has expanded its trade relations with other countries, with US exports accounting for less than 15% of its total exports, down from about one-fifth. Meanwhile, China has established supply chains for rare earth minerals and other key minerals, upgraded manufacturing technology using artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, and enhanced advanced technologies such as semiconductors.
In recent weeks, China has been negotiating with countries from Europe to Southeast Asia to expand trade cooperation.
In contrast, during the first three months of his administration, Trump continuously insulted, imposed tariffs, and even threatened to annex allies like Canada. Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Committee during the Obama administration, told CNN: "Now, the US is an extremely unreliable partner to anyone in the world." He said that Trump's attempt to unite allies to jointly contain China again seems unrealistic.
Local time on April 8th, Trump mocked those countries seeking negotiations on tariffs in his speech. He sarcastically said: "These countries are calling me, kissing my ass (kissing my ass), they desperately want to reach a trade agreement. They say, 'Sir, please let me sign an agreement, I am willing to do anything, I am willing to do anything, sir.' "
Scott Kennedy, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: "The US cannot single-handedly push China's economy to the brink of collapse. Although Washington is reluctant to admit it, when China says 'you cannot economically contain us,' their argument makes sense."
Trump insulted leaders of many countries on the 8th. Video screenshot
"Americans are about to feel real economic pain"
Trump's insistence on imposing higher tariffs on China has caused widespread panic and dissatisfaction across the country.
Sean M. Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, recently said: "Those American companies that have successfully sold products to China may no longer be able to do so." He added that "tariffs almost cover everything between the US and China," meaning that all trade sectors from aviation, medical imaging, to agriculture will be affected.
Media outlets such as The New York Times reported on April 10 that the decline in the US inflation rate in March exceeded expectations. Economists believe that Trump's current tariff policies will remain costly, not only leading to slower economic growth but also causing inflation to rise.
CNN also warned: "Real pain is coming for Americans."
Data from the Office of the US Trade Representative shows that China has always been the largest supplier of goods to the US, accounting for 16% of US imports in recent years. China dominates the US smartphone, computer, and toy markets. After new tariffs take effect, these products may experience significant price increases, making them unaffordable for many Americans.
The article argues that China has the ability to impose other penalties on the US, such as suspending export licenses for rare earth minerals crucial to the US tech industry, implementing new restrictions on imported goods, and impacting the US agricultural heartland by limiting soybean and sorghum imports.
The New York Times published an article stating that losing the Chinese market will have particularly severe economic impacts on many red states' agriculture and workers, who are precisely the voter groups that helped Trump win the election. Caleb Ralgran, a Kentucky farmer and president of the US Soybean Association, expressed concern: "If this continues for a long time, many farmers will go bankrupt."
American small businesses are also at risk. Alex Yaks, special assistant for economic development and industrial strategy during the Biden administration, said: "If you are a small business, you will suffer a painful blow. You will see GDP dragged down, labor markets faltering, and inflationary pressures." Yaks frankly stated that Trump's tariff policies lack "rational thinking or direction."
On April 11, Politburo member and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi met with Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Grossi and emphasized that the current international situation is turbulent and full of chaos, largely due to some major powers' belief in supremacy and prioritizing their own interests, engaging in unilateral bullying. Recently, the US has been waving the tariff stick everywhere, openly placing its own interests above common global interests, blatantly disregarding multilateral trading systems and established rules. The international community cannot stand idly by, nor can the US act arbitrarily, and the wheel of history cannot turn backward.
Wang Yi emphasized that China is a truly upright major power and also a responsible member of the international community. We stand up to stop hegemony not only to protect our legitimate rights and interests but also to safeguard the common interests of the international community and avoid humanity returning to a jungle world where the strong prey on the weak.
This article is an exclusive piece from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7492303325128344099/
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