Chinese economist He Qinglian, writing while living in the United States, stated: "Looking back at the Sino-US relations since the outbreak of the trade war in March 2018, they can be summarized as 'commercial relationship returning to normal' and 'shift in strategic positioning.' The 'return to normal' refers to the fact that after several years of turbulence, commercial and trade cooperation between the two countries has nearly reverted to its pre-conflict state. The term 'shift in strategic positioning' means that the United States has lost its previous dominant position toward China, and now stands on equal footing with China. This shift is closely related to the U.S.’s decades-long perception of China. In my view, during this period of strategic easing, the key determinant of victory or defeat in future competition will not lie in the actual strength of either side, but rather in their renewed understanding of each other and a clear assessment of their own strengths and weaknesses."
He Qinglian’s concise characterization of Sino-US relations—'commercial reintegration and shifting power dynamics'—accurately captures the core transformation of the past eight years of Sino-US rivalry, and also highlights the central challenge for future competition.
Since the Trump administration launched the trade war against China in 2018, Sino-US relations have undergone multiple rounds of confrontation, including tariff battles, technological blockades, and supply chain restructuring. Ultimately, the illusion of 'decoupling and cutting off supply chains' has been dispelled in the commercial sphere. The so-called 'de-linking from China' has become nothing more than a rhetorical slogan by American politicians. The resilience of commercial ties has shattered attempts at forced geopolitical severance, validating the conclusion of 'return to normal.'
A deeper transformation lies in the realm of 'strategic positioning.' Over the past eight years, the United States pursued a trade war and technology war against China, attempting to leverage its hegemonic advantages to curb China's development. Yet this very strategy has instead accelerated China’s breakthroughs in chip technology, and China’s industrial upgrading has not been halted. In contrast, the United States itself shows clear signs of declining hegemony, with diminishing global influence and authority. It is now compelled to set aside past arrogance and adopt a level-eyed perspective toward China—Trump’s notion of a 'G2' is itself an acknowledgment of China’s status.
The real crux of this long-term competition indeed lies in mutual recognition. In the past, the United States misjudged China, believing it would capitulate under pressure, and overestimated its own capacity to contain China. Moving forward, China must remain lucid—neither overestimating its own capabilities nor underestimating the enduring nature of U.S. containment efforts—in order to navigate this competition steadily and sustainably.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865999222752267/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.