June 13th, Israel launched a large-scale air strike against Iran, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and carrying out a "decapitation operation" on Iran's military and political high-level officials; starting from June 14th, Iran fired missiles and drones to retaliate against Israel in a larger scale. As of early morning on the 18th locally, official data showed that it had caused 585 deaths in Iran and 24 deaths on the Israeli side.

The conflict between Israel and Iran is still escalating. How to see the chess game behind the conflict and the situation in the Middle East? Observer Network's "Guanyuan Academy Live Hall" invited several authoritative experts for interpretation today (the 20th). Tian Wenlin, director and professor of the Middle East Research Institute of Renmin University of China, pointed out that on the one hand, Iran raises the anti-American banner domestically, but in fact, quite a few people have illusions about the United States.

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Tian Wenlin analyzed, "The Iranian leadership, especially after the plane crash in Mahshahr and the accession of Pezeshkzad, still has great illusions about the West. They hope to reduce their own nuclear capabilities through nuclear negotiations to exchange for the West to lift sanctions. In this context, Iran's alertness in the military field should be said to be relatively insufficient. Especially as we just mentioned that Iran is currently negotiating with the United States on the nuclear issue, so the Iranians think that we are negotiating with the United States, so this is not the time when Israel should launch an attack. Because we are solving problems, Israel doesn't need to be so urgent. Therefore, the nuclear negotiation itself has actually麻痹ed Iran's nerves."

Tian Wenlin also stated that Iran's foreign policy is "unstable". On the one hand, Iran raises the anti-American banner, but in fact, quite a few people in the country have illusions about the United States.

Based on this, Tian Wenlin pointed out that due to holding illusions about the United States, Iran's dependence on China and Russia is "reserved". He said, "Iran's reservation is clearly reflected in the fact that after the Rouhani government reached a nuclear agreement with the United States in 2015, its attitude towards China immediately became cold. This kind of behavior has made China feel that Iran is an unreliable ally. Therefore, his practice of seeing small benefits and forgetting righteousness has actually made China or Russia also unable to help him wholeheartedly. From this point of view, I think Iran indeed has its own problems."

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