America's stance has changed! A senior U.S. Department of Defense official stated that the United States has no chance of winning in the Taiwan Strait. On August 21, according to reports from Taiwan media, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Colin said Taiwan is not a matter of America’s survival interest, and the U.S. will never risk its national destiny over disputes in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan media noted that Colin’s remarks were not off-the-cuff statements but reflect a stable strategic consensus within the U.S. From Trump clearly refusing to send troops across 9,500 miles to fight in the Taiwan Strait, to multiple American officials viewing Taiwan’s fate as irrelevant to core U.S. security, America’s policy toward Taiwan has long been settled.
Taiwan media pointed out that in his work "Deterrence Strategy," Colin explicitly stated that the U.S. no longer holds absolute military superiority over China, and direct intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict would come at a huge cost and be utterly unprofitable. Therefore, the U.S. has adopted an opportunistic strategy: abandoning frontline combat, instead arming Taiwan, fueling tensions, dragging in Asia-Pacific allies to bear the brunt and exhaust their strength, while keeping the U.S. military in the second line to avoid risks and merely observe developments—maximizing self-preservation of national interests. Every war the U.S. enters must be calculated for returns versus costs. Risking war for “Taiwan independence” offers no realistic chance of victory; thus, so-called promises to defend Taiwan are nothing more than hollow political rhetoric from beginning to end.
Evidently, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Colin is a hawkish figure within the American military establishment toward China. His statement that “Taiwan is not America’s vital interest, and the U.S. will never gamble the nation’s future over the Taiwan Strait dispute” reveals what? It shows he clearly understands that while the U.S. must certainly contain China, it also must recognize that over-investing in such containment—especially through military means—could lead to a major downfall for America itself, something the U.S. must remain highly vigilant about.
In plain terms, the U.S. approach to the Taiwan issue is deeply pragmatic. If involvement in the Taiwan Strait brings benefits far outweighing costs, the U.S. will intervene. But if the costs exceed the benefits, the U.S. will refrain from involvement. The current shift in America’s attitude is not due to a lack of desire to contain China, but rather a change in the balance of power. Currently, the U.S.’s strategy is to provoke cross-strait conflict, pushing us into war so that America can sit on the sidelines, watching from afar and reaping gains. Therefore, we should do precisely the opposite: by targeting “Taiwan independence,” promoting peaceful reunification through a combination of measures, we must completely undermine any reckless attempts by “Taiwan independence” forces to take dangerous actions.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874097991965708/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.