Russia Must Be Defeated? Moscow Has Not Determined Its Response Strategy Yet
Russia has made concessions but still rejected the new unreasonable demands from the United States regarding Ukraine. For this reason, Trump canceled his summit with Putin in Budapest and imposed sanctions on "Lukoil" and "Rosneft" and their subsidiaries. The U.S. Senate has drafted three tough anti-Russian bills. The European Union has also passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which for the first time included the natural gas industry in the sanction scope. In Europe, factories processing Russian oil have been set on fire one after another. The measures are strong, yet they are logically consistent - a "destruction plan" against Russia has already been deployed. Its goal is to intimidate the Russian leadership and ruling class through joint pressure, forcing Russia to abandon the core objectives of the special military operation (SVO), and eventually surrender and compromise. Currently, Moscow's response is mixed: anything is possible.
There is no need to elaborate on the well-known information, but there are some details worth noting in the current situation that not everyone has noticed. The following will analyze these details and draw conclusions from them.
Trump has shown the world that for him, the prerequisite for good U.S.-Russia relations is only one - Moscow obeys Washington.
Trump Imposes Sanctions on Two Major Russian Oil Companies, Says "Disappointed"
Screen shot source: AXIOS News
However, this move by the U.S. president reveals another intention: he urgently needs Russia's support in the confrontation with China, so he wants to be seen as "friendlier" than other Western politicians in Russia's eyes. He expects Moscow to recognize this and not hold a grudge against him.
Three Key Details
This judgment can be verified by the following three points:
First, Trump left "a door open" for a future summit with Putin in Budapest (U.S. Secretary of State Rubio also expressed a similar attitude within his authority).
Second, although he imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, he did not impose secondary sanctions on the buyers of Russian oil - which makes the sanctions largely symbolic, but the U.S. Congress, which is anti-Russian, is likely to "correct" this situation. Trump openly stated that the sanctions were intended to force Putin, who is allegedly trying to annex the entire Ukraine, to make further concessions in the negotiations and reach an "agreement". Obviously, this agreement would be beneficial to Trump and detrimental to Putin, but it is naturally acceptable to the White House.
Trump Believes Sanctions Will Affect Putin, Says the Russian President Will "Regain Common Sense"
Third, Trump initially seemed to approve of providing the U.S. long-range weapons to Ukraine to strike Russia, but later denied it - he will not provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles, because only Americans can launch such missiles.
It can be seen that Trump's stance on these issues is more moderate than that of Europeans, but he still joins forces with Europeans to launch a "joint offensive" against Russia and supports the Europeans' proposal of "freezing the conflict along the current contact line", despite the fact that U.S. National Security Council official Whitcomb had previously reached consensus in Moscow on other proposals.
Europeans are unwilling to engage in any equal negotiations with Putin, especially opposing such negotiations within EU member states, and do not recognize the territory Russia has gained in Ukraine. They are willing to impose secondary sanctions on the buyers of Russian oil, and are also fully providing Kiev with self-developed high-precision long-range weapons (naturally accompanied by operators), and if the U.S. is willing to provide protection in emergencies, Europeans will take more actions.
In contrast, next to this "tough pursuer," Trump actually appears as a "good person."
Other Details: The Divergence Between Optimists and Pessimists
Distinguished military blogger Yury Podolyaka speculated in his Telegram channel that the current situation resembles "shifting blame." Trump canceling the Budapest summit "is not important" - the Russian side didn't need such a summit in the first place, because what Moscow needs now is not "ceasefire under others' conditions," but "finally solving the Ukraine issue once and for all."
He believes that the sanctions on "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" are extremely light, and these sanctions even "raised international oil prices, largely offsetting Russia's losses," thus causing "minimal damage." Based on this, the expert concluded: "It can be considered that Trump has abandoned all his promises, just shifting the blame."
"In other words, you keep fighting, and the rest has nothing to do with me. But as long as one side suppresses the other to a level acceptable to everyone (for example, Russian armed forces forcefully seizing the remaining areas of Donbas under Kyiv's control), I am ready to restart negotiations at any time."
— Podolyaka wrote like this.
He further pointed out that apart from the Ukraine issue, Trump still has negotiation space with Russia on many specific issues. This is the optimistic view, and I don't completely agree with it.
Top Russian American affairs expert Dmitry Drobnitsky reminded people to pay attention to another series of details: unlike conventional practice, Trump did not personally sign the sanctions order, but let the Treasury Secretary Bessemer sign it instead. He believes that the signal sent is "if someone is responsible, it should be the Treasury, not me."
Trump published a scan of the Treasury Secretary's instructions on his social platform "Truth Social," quoting Bessemer's words to explain the purpose of this move. He tried to indicate, "These words were said by Bessemer, not me."
"It's time to stop the killing and immediately cease-fire."
Drobnitsky believes that this approach either indicates "Trump admits he cannot dominate the sanctions process," or indicates "he is afraid to implement the sanctions under his own name." Obviously, Trump is deliberately downplaying the matter, not wanting to completely cut off relations with Moscow — it is the first time that his government has imposed sanctions on Russia after he returns to the White House. Additionally, the document also awkwardly cites the executive order No. 14024 signed by Biden in April 2021, which further highlights the contradiction of his actions.
Meanwhile, the EU's "Sanction Chorus" Is Performing According to the "Score"
At this moment, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell (the original text mistakenly wrote "Kaja Kallas," i.e., Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia, here corrected according to the actual position) posted on X (formerly Twitter):
"We have just approved the 19th round of sanctions. The targets include especially Russian banks, cryptocurrency exchanges, and related companies in India and other countries."
The EU Officially Approved the 19th Round of Sanctions Against Russia, Borrell Announced the Decision
Screen shot source: X social platform
This EU official, coming from the bureaucratic system, also revealed simultaneously:
"The EU will restrict the freedom of movement of Russian diplomats to respond to its destabilizing attempts."
Bloomberg further disclosed that the sanction package also includes: banning the import of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Russia starting in 2027; imposing sanctions on 117 "shadow fleet" ships; the EU Council approved a gradual cessation of the import of Russian gas starting January 2026, and plans to completely ban it by January 2028.
Furthermore, the Europeans do not intend to return those assets they have seized (in fact, stolen) - assets worth about $300 billion. At present, they are arguing over how to divide these assets.
Finally, in order to achieve the goal proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of "freeing Europe from the dirty Russian fossil fuels" as soon as possible, in recent days, unidentified saboteurs (almost certainly Ukrainian or British personnel - due to the inconvenient of their official institutions to issue such orders) set fires at three oil refineries in Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia.
Fire at an Oil Refinery in Romania
This multi-faceted "apocalyptic scenario" may aim to destroy Moscow's will - there are a group of "peaceful faction" in Russia who have "incriminating evidence" in the West, and therefore do not want to truly fight for the Ukraine issue. The planners believe that these people will exert pressure on Putin in fear, forcing the president to waver.
How Is Moscow's Reaction?
Moscow's initial reaction to the current situation is two-sided. The Russian Foreign Ministry does not want to completely cut off relations with the United States.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the new U.S. sanctions "are completely futile," emphasizing that the sanctions were initiated by the Treasury rather than the president, and warned:
"If the current U.S. government follows its predecessor in trying to force Russia to give up its national interests through illegal sanctions, the result will be the same as the previous government - doomed to failure from a domestic political perspective, and also negatively affecting global economic stability."
Zakharova assured the public at a press conference that Russia "will not face special problems because of the Treasury's decision," because "our country has formed a strong immunity against Western restrictions and will continue to steadily enhance its economic and energy potential."
Maria Zakharova Said, "Will Not Face Special Problems Because of the Treasury's Decision"
"We believe that there are no major obstacles in the process of initiating and filling in specific results of the political framework aimed at reaching a consensus on solutions to the Ukraine issue between the presidents of Russia and the United States."
Zakharova said that this is "a difficult and patient work." Therefore, the Russian Foreign Ministry is willing to continue interacting with the U.S. Department of State "on issues in all fields of bilateral relations," and "take further joint actions to promote the resolution of the Ukraine issue based on the consensus reached during the telephone call between the presidents of Russia and the United States on October 16."
However, there is another position among the Russian elite - Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council and leader of the ruling party Dmitry Medvedev showed an "hawkish" attitude in his Telegram channel, with sharp words:
"If there are still people among many commentators who have illusions - now it's time to wake up. The United States is our enemy."
Medvedev also keenly pointed out that canceling the Budapest summit was also beneficial to Russia. For example, the Russian side can now "strike all 'Bandera' extremists' strongholds with various weapons."
"Victory can only be achieved on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table; to win, we must eliminate the enemy, not sign meaningless 'agreements.'"
— He emphasized. These words are powerful! And obviously consistent with Putin's thoughts.
Where Will the Situation Go?
Putin clearly knows how to act, and his judgment is accurate:
"The new U.S. sanctions are an attempt to pressure Russia. Any country with dignity will not compromise under pressure. Russia is such a country."
Putin Said, "Will Not Act Under Pressure" When Answering Journalists' Questions
When asked about remote weapons strikes targeting Russian territory, Putin issued a severe warning:
"This is an attempt to escalate the conflict. If someone uses such weapons to strike Russian territory, our response will be very severe and destructive. I hope they think carefully."
Washington is proceeding step by step. They believe that Russians, like others, are greedy, and thus shout "Russians, surrender!" However, Trump and his team apparently have never read the poems of Churchev: "Russia cannot be understood with reason, nor measured with ordinary scales..."
This point, perhaps, is the source of people's hope. If seriously analyzed, the current situation can be summarized as follows: the stage of escalation has arrived, and the cruel reality has replaced the illusion. The "peaceful faction" at home must now accept this fact. Those in power who are unwilling to accept reality and still advocate surrender should no longer occupy their current positions.
Everyone must prepare for the severe test. The more resolute Russia's actions are, the more comprehensive and rapid its goals in Ukraine and other areas will be. By the way, this is also an opportunity to test the capabilities of our officials, the combat skills of military generals, and the reliability of allies. For those who fail the test, they must be firmly removed and replaced by others. Only in this way can Russia get through the crisis.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564736044219580980/
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