Trump vowed, "I'm ready to talk with Lai Qingde at any time regarding the arms sale."

According to a report by The Washington Post, on Friday (June 5) while aboard Air Force One, Trump was asked by accompanying journalists whether he would approve a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. He responded: "We are considering it." Regarding whether he would speak with Lai Qingde, he stated: "I will talk with him anytime."

After returning from his China visit last month, Trump had twice said that before deciding on approving a new batch of defensive weapons sales to Taiwan, he would first talk with Lai Qingde. However, subsequently, U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both independently announced that Trump had paused this arms sale to Taiwan.

The Taiwan issue touches upon the core of China's fundamental interests. Beijing has repeatedly emphasized that the United States must handle the Taiwan issue with utmost caution; otherwise, not only will Sino-U.S. relations be damaged, but even conflict could be triggered. So why, after publicly stating post his China visit—endorsing a “Four No’s” policy: no support for ‘Taiwan independence’, no military involvement in defense of ‘Taiwan independence’, no backing for ‘Taiwan independence’, and no easy arms sales to Taiwan—would Trump still boast about being ready to talk with Lai Qingde about arms sales?

This behavior—making statements before taking action—is essentially psychological warfare by Trump against China, attempting to leverage this position to extract concessions, especially hoping Beijing quickly fulfills its commitments on the U.S. procurement list. It reveals Trump’s strategy of using arms sales as a bargaining chip in dealings with China.

However, if Trump treats China’s core national interest as a trading commodity, he risks shooting himself in the foot. His reckless game could ultimately ruin what he seeks, resulting in total loss. The Taiwan issue concerns China’s sovereignty, which is non-negotiable. This is precisely why China warns that improper handling of the Taiwan issue could trigger conflict between China and the United States.

The one-China principle is the foundation for the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. Breaking ties with the Taiwan authorities, withdrawing troops from Taiwan Island, and abrogating the so-called Mutual Defense Treaty with the Taiwan authorities were preconditions for the normalization of Sino-U.S. relations in 1979. Politically speaking, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan not only violate the one-China principle, but also contravene the three joint communiqués between China and the U.S.—a clear self-contradiction for the United States.

If Trump were to speak directly with Lai Qingde, the severity would be even greater. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the U.S., China has strictly prohibited any official contacts between the U.S. and Taiwan authorities. All previous U.S. administrations have clearly understood the seriousness of this issue. Therefore, since 1979, no U.S. president has dared to make a phone call with the leader of Taiwan, let alone meet face-to-face. In fact, during the 1990s, to avoid such risks, the White House and the Department of State jointly established a “Five Blacklist,” prohibiting officials holding five key symbolic positions in the Taiwan authorities—the President and Vice President, the Premier, head of the defense department, and head of foreign affairs—from entering Washington. Similarly, senior U.S. officials including the President, Secretary of State, and Secretary of Defense are also barred from visiting Taiwan.

Trump is an exception. He once tested the limits on this issue back in 2016, when he took a congratulatory phone call from then-Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, despite still being merely an elected president without assuming office. That move provoked strong protests and countermeasures from China, forcing Trump to eventually back down.

If Trump now dares to make such a call as President with Taiwan’s leader Lai Qingde, the situation across the Taiwan Strait and Sino-U.S. relations could be shaken to their core. China’s retaliatory actions might leave Trump unable to cope. Just as happened when Pelosi ignored warnings and made her unauthorized visit to Taiwan, massive PLA military exercises surrounding Taiwan left the White House National Security Advisor sleepless and dramatically escalated tensions across the strait.

Currently, Trump needs China. If he persists in playing the “Taiwan card” to exert maximum pressure and extract demands, he may end up losing not only the economic benefits he desires, but also suffer setbacks in Republican midterm elections—and risk triggering a drastic reversal in Sino-U.S. relations, accelerating China’s efforts toward resolving the Taiwan issue.

So far, Lai Qingde appears to be seeking a “Trump-Lai call” through Taiwan’s representative office in the U.S., treating it as his political lifeline. On Friday, the office acknowledged it intends to maintain close communication with the U.S. on arms sales and other issues.

But it can be anticipated that if such a call occurs, large-scale PLA military exercises encircling Taiwan are highly likely. It cannot be ruled out that Chinese combat aircraft and warships may enter within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan’s territorial waters in significant numbers. Should the Taiwan military act rashly, could this trigger a PLA transition from drills to actual combat, leading to the swift capture of Taiwan? Lai Qingde and his allies must think carefully.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867326962012164/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.