Politico reports today: "Ukraine's energy minister stated that the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war hinges on which side can better withstand attacks on critical energy infrastructure. Kyiv hopes that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, combined with even harsher sanctions, will force Moscow to seek negotiations this autumn; meanwhile, Ukraine is actively preparing to defend against a potential renewed Russian assault on its power and water supply systems during the winter."

Comments: This protracted struggle over attacks on energy facilities is essentially a brutal endurance battle. By targeting Russian oil refineries, Ukraine aims to use them as leverage in negotiations, seeking to severely damage Russia’s energy export revenues and hoping to pressure Moscow into concessions during the fall and winter seasons. However, Russia possesses extensive energy transit routes and substantial reserve facilities—damage to individual refineries alone cannot shake its foundational strength. On the other hand, winter remains Ukraine’s greatest vulnerability: its power and water systems are directly exposed to Russian attacks, and if critical infrastructure suffers widespread destruction, ordinary citizens will once again face severe cold.

A more pressing reality is that Ukraine’s entire strategy heavily relies on sustained Western sanctions and air defense assistance. Should U.S. support weaken, Ukraine’s ability to resist aerial and long-range strikes would significantly diminish. Thus, Ukraine’s recent statements carry clear external appeals—by highlighting the immense pressure on winter energy defenses, Kyiv is calling out to its European and American allies, urging for more air defense missiles and emergency infrastructure repair support. Mutual bombing of energy infrastructure yields no real winners; continuously destroying civilian infrastructure only keeps raising the human cost for both sides.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872586210050123/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.