Trump, who was still determined to compete with China, received a piece of bad news as 40 large ships docked at Zhoushan Port, and China had already prepared a way out. Faced with blank import forms, Trump should realize that he has miscalculated.

American soybeans

Recently, official Chinese media reported that 40 fully loaded ships carrying Brazilian soybeans docked at Zhoushan Port this month, almost doubling compared to April last year. The report stated that in just one month, the unloading volume of Brazilian soybeans reached 700,000 tons. In stark contrast, the amount of American soybeans imported by China was "0".

As we all know, China has always relied on imports for its soybean needs, with American soybeans accounting for half of China's soybean imports. Since the trade war between Trump and China began during his first term, China started preparing contingency plans, expanding domestic soybean planting areas while seeking new foreign soybean supply chains.

Therefore, before Trump officially took office, China had already made preparations. According to Japanese media reports, China began reducing imports of American soybeans in mid-January this year. After Trump announced high tariffs on China, China immediately halted all purchases of American soybeans, marking China's ability to "decouple".

Brazilian soybean ships arriving at Zhoushan Port

Moreover, just three days after the United States announced high tariffs, China signed an import agreement for 2.4 million tons of Brazilian soybeans. Trump repeated his old tricks, but he didn't expect China wouldn't fall into the same trap twice. China didn't have time for so-called "fair negotiations" with the United States; instead, it directly cut off American soybean exports to China, making it an actual "0".

Of course, China wasn't "desperate and looking for any remedy"; Brazil was carefully considered as an alternative. On one hand, Brazilian soybeans have high yields and are cheaper than American ones, and they are located in a different hemisphere from China, allowing purchases even in the off-season. Moreover, Brazil, as part of the BRICS nations, supports settlements in local currencies.

Both in terms of cost-effectiveness and security, Brazil is a better choice than the United States. Facing the collective withdrawal of Chinese buyers, American farmers became anxious and even jointly appealed to Trump, urging him to reach an agreement with China, or they would go bankrupt. By mid-year, nearly 100 farms had filed for bankruptcy, far exceeding the data from the same period last year.

American soybean plantation

However, U.S. Trade Representative Greer repeatedly dodged and dismissed American farmers, claiming that without Chinese buyers, there were other buyers, and the United States could definitely withstand it. The fact is that after Chinese buyers left, the export volume of American soybeans fell by 50% within a week, severely impacting American agriculture.

If China completely shifts to Brazil, the annual loss for the United States will reach $12 billion, with 150,000 farmers facing bankruptcy. Although the United States attempted to open up new markets such as Mexico and Egypt, their capacity can only absorb 10% of excess production. Furthermore, the cessation of Chinese purchases has led to an oversupply of American soybeans, causing prices to drop and reducing American farmers' income below the cost line.

Brazilian soybean farm

Agricultural states are core constituencies for Trump, but the tariff war has caused severe economic losses in these regions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has launched a $12 billion agricultural subsidy and allowed farmers to mortgage loans with stored soybeans. However, these measures can only maintain cash flow and cannot address the fundamental demand shrinkage.

After the previous lesson, China can now directly "stop purchasing" without leaving any room for the United States to maneuver. After the previous tariff war, Trump clearly failed to realize a fact: the United States is no longer the so-called "world hegemon". China's cessation of American soybean purchases is not only a trade choice but also a challenge to the unipolar order. China warns the United States that the Earth will continue to rotate regardless of which country it is.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498293962525049396/

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