Escalation of India-Pakistan Conflict Due to American Interests

The Kashmir conflict simultaneously impacts related countries, Russia, Afghanistan, and Central Asia.

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Image: Security measures have been strengthened in Pahalgam after the attack. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted the military "full operational freedom" to respond.

Following the terrorist attack in Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians, India and Pakistan continued to issue threatening statements towards each other. New Delhi accused Islamabad of being behind the attack, while Islamabad denied it and called for a "fair investigation" into this deadliest attack on civilians since 2000 in the region.

The verbal threats from both sides were accompanied by actual actions, with troop mobilization along the Line of Control and international borders, especially showing India's intention to take military action. However, there are some important details to consider when analyzing the situation.

Historically speaking, what is happening now can be seen as another India-Pakistan conflict event, with dozens of such events occurring over the past 50 years. Since the partition of India in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars. This region is not only known as a disputed territory but more so as a "historical minefield," a隐患 left by Britain when they left South Asia.

Now, many experts warn that if dialogue is not resumed, under the geopolitical paradigm of Central Asia-South Asia, the situation risks escalating and causing geopolitical instability. At the same time, some believe this incident is a "premeditated military conflict." They point out that this incident coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies against China. Moreover, it is not just that. The Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet confirmed the sharp intensification of competition among Turkey and relevant countries in Central Asia. According to the media, "the rapid changes in the region and the rise in economic influence of relevant countries are pushing Turkey out of Central Asia."

In addition, the "Expanded Partnership and Cooperation Agreement" (EPCA) targets both China and Turkey, and after that, the Samarkand Declaration by the governments of Astana, Tashkent, Bishkek, and Ashgabat seems to indicate that "relations with Ankara may be frozen."

In this regard, according to Al Jazeera's assessment, "there are great doubts about the motives of the India-Pakistan conflict." First, the armed attacks in Kashmir targeted civilians rather than military installations. Second, India's response seemed somewhat inappropriate; India announced measures regarding water resources flowing to Pakistan, contradicting the agreement signed in 1960 for joint use of six rivers.

These measures immediately escalated the confrontation between the two sides to an unprecedented level. It seems that India quickly "obtained" evidence suggesting the involvement of Pakistan's intelligence agency in planning the terrorist attack and responded fiercely. Third, experts are discussing a view from Israel's intelligence agency that "the Kashmir incident is India's version of the October 7, 2023 event when Hamas attacked Israel."

Image: Consequences of the Kashmir terrorist attack.

However, a more popular view holds that "India has initiated a great game aimed at containing relevant countries."

This view is well-founded. For example, the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict poses a threat to the trans-Afghanistan railway project, which aims to connect Russia, Central Asia (Uzbekistan and Pakistan), and India through Afghanistan. The project includes two routes: Mazar-e-Sharif-Herat-Kandahar-Chaman and Termez-Laghman-Haripur, with the second corridor's logistics infrastructure passing through the Kashmir region.

Notably, in April 2025, Russia and Uzbekistan signed documents regarding the trans-Afghanistan railway project. For Russia and Central Asia, this is a passage to the ports of Pakistan and Iran. This main line will ensure the transportation of goods from India and Indochina. If the conflict between India and Pakistan continues to escalate, due to the lack of investors and Central Asia being geopolitically marginalized, this project will be postponed. Moreover, this vast region may be split into "pro-Western" and "pro-Eastern" clusters.

Meanwhile, it is noteworthy that terrorist attacks in Afghanistan and Kashmir often coincide with infrastructure project timelines, always raising questions about external forces' intervention. Closing trade routes through Afghanistan will strike a blow to China's transit transport of goods to Europe via this route.

In summary, theoretically, under the current specific broad geopolitical situation, the tension in the India-Pakistan situation benefits the United States. Rather than expecting specific verbal responses from Russia or relevant countries regarding the events, they are more likely expecting actual actions. Renowned French geopolitical scholar Alexandre Del Valle believes that "only Russia can become an effective mediator for the India-Pakistan conflict." However, in his view, "other BRICS countries can also find solutions." It should be noted that both India and Pakistan belong to the security scope of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and relevant countries have invested considerable efforts in establishing this organization with Russia and Central Asian countries, still having opportunities to bring the matter back to the diplomatic track.

Moreover, relevant countries and almost all of India's borders remain undefined, currently in a state of de facto control lines. Despite various diplomatic efforts by India, it has failed to prevent third-party countries from intervening in the situation. Pakistan does not wish to exacerbate the conflict and hints at external factors. Relevant countries actively avoid publicly intervening in disputes between the two neighboring countries, but in the early 21st century, when relations between Islamabad and relevant countries developed into a political alliance, relevant countries began to support Pakistan's stance on resolving the Kashmir issue peacefully.

In any case, the situation in Kashmir is becoming increasingly dire. Attempting to resolve the conflict through force poses a terrifying threat to the world because of the risk of using nuclear weapons. Therefore, external participants like the United States, Russia, and relevant countries should join forces to mediate the hostile parties' relations, effectively excluding the possibility of resolving the conflict through force.

A peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue requires mutual concessions from both New Delhi and Islamabad. However, if representatives of relevant countries avoid publicly criticizing India on the Kashmir issue and New Delhi currently shows no signs of adopting a compromising stance, experts can speculate that the United States might implement an "encirclement of relevant countries" strategy, pressuring Pakistan and Iran (two allies of Russia and relevant countries).

At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the United States might attempt to create divisions within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS through this method, shifting their competition to Central Asia. Nevertheless, Kashmir should not become a new Syria, as this fire not only risks consuming the Himalayas but also spreading to the grasslands of Kazakhstan, the valleys of Uzbekistan, and the mountains of Tajikistan.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500393998356431401/

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