[Source/Author: Observer Network Columnist Mindset Observatory]
Not long ago, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced a public notice, deciding to implement export controls on some medium-heavy rare earth-related items, including alloys, compounds, oxides, and other related items of samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. These exports must apply for licenses according to relevant regulations from the Ministry of Commerce.
Once this news was released, the international market prices of these related items surged instantly, with professionals even expecting that subsequent price increases could reach 500% or more.
As Mindset Observatory analyzed at the first instance, this move will have a strategic impact on the global supply chain, particularly affecting key application areas highly dependent on these seven rare earth materials, such as high-performance magnets, optoelectronic materials, and downstream defense and military industries, as well as medical equipment.
Many may not yet realize that this move will also significantly impact the competition for the commanding heights of the lithography machine industry.
As is well known, EUV lithography machines have become the most critical tool in America's technological suppression of China. Whenever EUV is mentioned, various defeatist arguments often circulate in domestic discourse, using seemingly solid data to argue with certainty that China cannot catch up.
However, putting aside the new national system being formed in the EUV technology breakthrough, even from the perspective of the opponent's needs, while the U.S. jurisdiction attempts to "lock down" China's lithography machine development, Western countries themselves also face significant constraints in further advancing lithography technology due to China's rare earth material supply.
According to ASML's published product roadmap, its current EUV product line is expected to evolve along the path of numerical aperture and process factor optimization, reaching the 0.75NA HXE series around the early 2030s, which will reach the resolution limit of the existing technology system. After 2035, the "BEUV" (Beyond EUV) lithography machine will replace it as the dominant technology.
Currently, overseas has already laid out key research for BEUV technology, such as the large-aperture thulium (BAT) laser developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in the United States last year, which will lead the formation of the Extreme Lithography and Materials Innovation Center (ELMIC).
ELMIC is a four-year, $12 million research project aimed at testing whether the BAT laser can increase the efficiency of EUV light sources by about 10 times, potentially spawning the next generation of BEUV lithography systems. The project members include Michael Purvis, ASML's chief EUV light source expert.
For BEUV, multiple light source technology routes are currently being researched, including free electron lasers (FEL), which China has already advanced globally, as well as steady-state microbunching (SSMB) accelerators. However, the latest version of the IRDS lithography roadmap also candidly acknowledges that the biggest challenge for alternative solutions is the lack of an industrial ecosystem. Therefore, "the necessary paradigm shift toward utility-scale light source architectures is disruptive enough to require broad consensus on their development and the associated ecosystem/infrastructure transformation."
Against this background, the industry has placed great emphasis on developing short-wavelength (6.X nanometers) laser plasma light sources, which have a high probability of becoming the preferred technology route. This is not only because its technical principles have a high degree of inheritance from current EUV lithography machines but also because the theoretical reflectivity of multilayer mirrors in the 6.X nanometer wavelength can reach as high as 70%.
However, if we truly resolve to develop a 6.X nanometer light source, its driving laser, target material, and collection mirror, the three core technologies, will all depend on rare earth materials that China effectively monopolizes.
Take the BAT laser mentioned earlier as an example; it uses thulium-doped lithium yttrium fluoride (Tm:YLF) crystal as the gain medium, featuring unique properties such as high laser damage threshold, large emission cross-section, and wide tunable range. Additionally, compared to existing CO2 lasers, thulium-doped lithium yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) and other laser crystals are more conducive to increasing light source conversion efficiency.
From the perspective of target materials, terbium and gadolinium replacing tin targets are also hot topics in BEUV research.
According to the joint research results published in Optics Express in February by teams from the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics, and Changchun University of Science and Technology, based on the existing planar target dual-laser pulse scheme, researchers optimized the spectral performance of the gadolinium-based BEUV light source (Gd-LPP) through cavity structure control to preform the expansion of the plasma. Experimental data shows that the cavity-constrained target retains the advantages of the traditional planar target dual-pulse scheme while improving spectral purity, with a maximum spectral purity of 4.35%.
Regarding the collection mirror and BEUV optical system mirror, they need to upgrade from traditional molybdenum/silicon multilayer mirrors to La/B4C multilayer mirrors based on lanthanide rare earth elements.
From such a concise梳理, it is not difficult to see that effectively controlling the outflow of related rare earth resources will lay a good foundation for China's lithography machine industry to take the lead in the BEUV stage.
This is like a marathon race; although the opponents seem "far ahead," in the last 10 kilometers of the track, we control the speed and direction of the leading vehicle.
Of course, to make this rare earth control card truly effective, it cannot be achieved by just one announcement. There are also many challenges in implementing the policy.
First is the issue of industry self-discipline. Due to China's rare earth production often far exceeding domestic demand, the vast majority of each year's rare earth element production is ultimately exported overseas in the form of raw materials or products. Therefore, after the export control takes effect, many rare earth enterprise operators, although fully aware of the strategic considerations behind the state's decision, will inevitably face a test of human nature. Faced with the huge profit space in the international market, the temptation of smuggling is hard to resist. Cases revealed after the export control of gallium, germanium, and antimony are proof.
Second is the difficulty in regulation. Rare earth elements can be exported in various forms. In addition to direct exports of raw materials, they can also indirectly flow out through exports of semi-finished or finished products. This is like trying to block water from leaking through a sieve; there will always be loopholes. How to ensure that regulatory measures neither overly restrict normal trade nor effectively prevent the outflow of strategic resources requires regulators to put in the "needlework effort."
Third is international pressure. Western countries will certainly strongly react to this control measure, possibly filing lawsuits on the grounds of "violating WTO rules" or taking additional retaliatory measures. In such circumstances, how to remain steadfast without being swayed by external pressure requires wisdom and determination.
Finally, there is the issue of industrial network coordination. Relying solely on resource control cannot fundamentally solve the problem of catching up technologically. It is necessary to simultaneously promote downstream application research, especially the core technology breakthroughs for BEUV lithography. Otherwise, even if holding a natural advantage in rare earth resources, it would be difficult to convert this into real industrial competitiveness.
This is not a sprint but a protracted war. Only by closely integrating the advantages of rare earth resources with technological innovation can victory be harvested in future extreme technology competitions.
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