Reference News Network, December 19 report: Singapore's "Thought China" website published an article by Genevieve Donnelly-Meale, a researcher at the Oxford Global Issues Institute, titled "The Recovery of US-China Soybean Trade May Reshape the Global Market Structure." The following is a translation:

At the end of October this year, US officials announced that China had agreed to resume purchasing US soybeans. The reaction in the US market was immediate, with Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybean futures prices rising to their highest level since June 2024.

Food security has long been a key focus for the Chinese government.

Soybeans are a key raw material for cooking oil and animal feed, as well as a core commodity in Sino-US trade. Although China is only the fourth largest soybean producer in the world, its soybean imports account for more than 60% of global soybean trade. Domestic-produced soybeans are mainly used for food processing, while imported soybeans are primarily used to meet demand for feed and cooking oil.

This structural dependence makes soybeans a strategic resource, but also creates a geopolitical vulnerability, affecting Beijing's long-term planning and short-term diplomatic actions.

The lessons learned from the first Sino-US trade war accelerated China's long-standing efforts to diversify its sources and reduce its heavy reliance on a single supplier.

Before 2018, more than one-third of China's total soybean imports came from the United States. After the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war, Brazil quickly surpassed the US in share.

Brazil's dominance has continued to this day. In 2024, China's soybean imports reached a record 105 million tons, with Brazil supplying 74.65 million tons, the US providing 22.14 million tons, and Argentina supplying 4.1 million tons.

This trend continued into 2025. After Beijing raised tariffs on US soybeans in April this year, US soybean exports to China plummeted. Between January and August this year, China imported only 5.93 million tons of US soybeans.

To further hedge against risks, China is seeking new sources of supply. Recent agreements between China and countries such as Ethiopia and Angola reflect its strategy to find alternative suppliers of soy products.

At the same time, China's domestic soybean production reached 21 million tons this year, showing a significant increase compared to five years ago.

In this context, the partial resumption of US soybean purchases is both an economic diplomatic move and an insurance mechanism—preventing excessive reliance on a single supplier and buffering future geopolitical shocks.

For the United States, this move also has far-reaching implications. China's resumption of soybean purchases from the US has brought relief to American farmers.

This also has a major impact on global trade and supply chains. As the world's largest producer and importer of grain, China's adjustments to its agricultural trade policies will affect the flow of food, capital, and trade.

Even if China's procurement policy changes are limited, they can create more supply space for other major importing countries and regions, prompting exporting countries to adjust prices and output. Notably, regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to benefit from increased soybean supply and price changes. (Translated by Yang Xuelei)

On September 29, large machinery was harvesting soybeans in Yindel Town, Zhalaiti Banner, Xing'an League, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (Xinhua News Agency)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7585390860490129929/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.