Reference News Network, January 20 report: On January 16, the Spanish website Zhihua Lecture published an article titled "Tug-of-War: Where Is the World Order Heading?" by Christian Carreras. The following is a compilation of the article:

Western South Engages in a Game

The current world order (if it can be called a "order") is very similar to a traditional tug-of-war. Tug-of-war is a popular sport that requires more strength than strategy, and just like any game, rules must be followed.

Let us use this sports event to explain the current global situation, and assume that only two teams are involved in this grand geopolitical game: one group consists of Western countries (most of which are OECD members), and the other group comprises the rest of the world known as the Global South (about 160 countries), including the "BRICS Plus" countries.

Both sides are at opposite ends of a rope. The midpoint can be seen as the balance point between the two teams (rich countries and poor countries, or economically developed and underdeveloped regions).

In the game, the referee ensures that the rules are followed. These rules are relatively fair and respected by both sides. In today's world order, there are many institutions or organizations that are seen as referees or responsible for maintaining order, such as the United Nations, G7, G20, the UN Security Council, and other institutions with more specific responsibilities, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the International Labour Organization, and various forums that discuss, formulate, and propose the basic rules of this global competition.

Respecting the rules is key to the smooth running of the tug-of-war. However, the principle of fair competition is not so clear at the national level. For the past two centuries, the dominant countries have generally followed the principle that each country should pursue its own "interests."

The world order is not dominated by a single arbiter. In fact, this role is shared by multiple actors. The United Nations (especially the UN Security Council) is the main mediator of conflicts and formulates international norms through the UN General Assembly. Countries and groups with influence such as the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union shape the global system through their economic, military, and political power. These actors jointly play the role of arbiters in various areas of the world order.

The West May Lose the Game

Among the two sides mentioned earlier, who will ultimately win?

We can build a simple model of international relations: two major countries (the United States and China) lead teams composed of their core partners.

As two important powers in the world, China and the United States may reach mutual understanding, but it is by no means easy. Both are major countries with global influence, but their political systems are different, leading to significant differences in governance models, economic and trade management, technological development, and global security.

Despite this, both sides have some common interests, such as maintaining political and economic stability, avoiding conflicts, addressing global challenges, protecting the environment, developing marine resources responsibly, ensuring the smooth operation of supply chains, and maintaining the safety of air and sea routes.

If these two major powers can engage in dialogue and enhance understanding, even if they cannot resolve all differences, they can find practical space for cooperation. The future relationship between the two countries is expected to remain a mix of competition and cooperation, and neither side can ignore the other. In short, regardless of willingness, both sides need to seek consensus through continuous negotiations and mutual respect rather than trying to impose their will on the other.

Currently, international rules seem to be dominated by a single country, namely the United States led by Trump. Although the economic and social conditions of the United States and its Western allies have clearly deteriorated since 2008, the United States seems unwilling to change the existing international rules.

At the same time, China's strategic initiatives have attracted attention: continuously promoting the "Belt and Road" initiative, welcoming new members into the BRICS cooperation mechanism, deepening cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, actively participating in multilateral mechanisms such as ASEAN plus China, Japan, and South Korea ("10+3"), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and expanding trade, financial, and cooperation networks across Asia and other continents.

The U.S. policy is moving towards isolation and trying to end its traditional alliance system; while China is committed to building a broad network of mutually beneficial cooperation.

The current turbulent situation in global geopolitics must be effectively managed, otherwise the future of human society will face serious threats. We should rely on reason and common sense to jointly promote the world toward stability and cooperation.

In summary, if the status quo remains unchanged, the Western camp is likely to lose the tug-of-war because the vast Global South appears more dynamic, has a younger population, is larger in scale, and has greater potential in the long run.

The leader of the Global South, China, leads in fields such as technology, industry, finance, and defense, and maintains good diplomatic, industrial, and trade relations with the majority of countries around the world.

From an economic perspective, China may be the most powerful, practical, competitive, and innovative economy in the world. With its large market size, production volume, product quality, and cost advantages, the goods and services provided by China are highly attractive globally.

Although the "Golden Rule" (that those who have wealth make the rules) may be applied again, we still hope that international organizations and the 195 existing sovereign states will consider establishing more fair, democratic, and just rules and norms. (Translated by Wang Meng)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597386707490603535/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.