Reference News Network, October 13 report: The U.S. "Defense News" weekly website published an article titled "Cruise Missiles Represent the Present and Future of War" on October 9. The author is Michael Bonnet, an engineer at the RAND Corporation in the United States. The abstract of the article is as follows:

There are currently two opposing narratives about the form of future warfare. For the past two years, drones and artillery have been seen as the direction of future warfare; however, the Iran-Israel war that broke out in June this year has revived the view that "stealth fighters will dominate the future." These two viewpoints are vastly different, but neither has shaken the position of a weapon that has always performed excellently and offers great value for money - cruise missiles.

In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, with both sides exchanging blows. By 2025, drones had taken the lead in land and naval battles in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, accounting for more than half of the casualties. Drones even flew deep into Russian territory to attack Russia's proud strategic bomber formations. Traditional weapons systems have become relics, and drones seem to represent the future of war.

However, Israel's air raids run counter to this narrative. In the early stages of the conflict, Israel, through precise and rapid strikes combined with F-35 stealth fighters, moved unimpeded over Iranian airspace. In addition, Israel and its allies successfully neutralized Iran's powerful ballistic missile threat through advanced missile defense systems and aerial attacks. After the U.S. B-2 stealth bomber destroyed Iran's key nuclear facilities, the conflict quickly came to an end.

Nevertheless, these two contradictory narratives do not truly reflect the shape of future warfare.

Since 1990, one combat capability has played a key role in almost all conflicts - low-altitude cruise missiles, and the low-altitude attack drones derived from them.

Most conflicts involving the United States have begun with low-altitude cruise missile strikes, the most famous being the Tomahawk cruise missile. These missiles are expensive, but they can effectively disable enemy air defense systems, command and control centers, and other key targets, clearing the way for subsequent attacks. These precision-guided weapons avoid detection by enemy radar and air defense systems by flying at low altitudes. Most countries have vast territories, making it extremely difficult to build a cost-effective air defense system. This geographical factor gives them survival capabilities, plus the long-range strike capability of cruise missiles, making their survival probability and operational success rate far higher than almost any other weapon option.

In addition to the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Russia have also successfully used cruise missiles at the beginning of conflicts to create conditions for subsequent operations.

Given the high cost of cruise missiles, cheaper alternatives with slower speeds have emerged to carry out similar missions. Israel's "Harpy" drone, Iran's "Witness" drone, and Ukraine's FP-1 drone are essentially low-speed cruise missiles with propellers instead of jet engines. Although they are often called "one-time attack drones," they have no fundamental difference in basic function compared to faster cruise missiles.

From the Iran-Israel conflict, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, low-altitude attack drones have caused serious damage to military targets and critical infrastructure, producing destructive effects.

Even the most advanced defense systems cannot completely resist the threat of these weapons. The larger the country's territory, the more difficult the defense. This also explains why the United States and Russia have invested significant resources in submarine-launched cruise missiles: the element of surprise provided by submarines makes cruise missiles and similar weapons the ultimate conventional deterrent force.

Launching such strikes at the beginning of a conflict allows the warring parties to gain the initiative and choose subsequent actions according to their own needs - whether it is traditional ground invasion, drone operations, air strikes, or no further military action. As the cost of cruise missiles continues to decrease and the barriers to acquisition and production gradually lower, their strategic importance will continue to increase in the future.

No matter how the form of future warfare evolves, low-altitude cruise missiles and low-altitude attack drones will be the "first wave of strikes." The Russian disruption of the Ukrainian power grid, and Ukraine's heavy damage to Russia's oil production facilities, are just the tip of the iceberg of the roles these weapons may play in future conflicts.

With the comprehensive advantages of high survivability, high operational success rate, and high cost-effectiveness, cruise missiles and low-altitude attack drones of similar nature will continue to be the preferred "door-kicking weapon" for the United States and other major military powers. (Translated by Zuo Chang)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560566792951988771/

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