Experts predict the development of tensions between India and Pakistan

Political scientist Kupriyanov: Tensions between India and Pakistan will be limited to border clashes

Author: Anastasia Kulikova

Fighting actions occurred between India and Pakistan following a terror attack in 2019. Nowadays, armed attacks in the Kashmir region require a more resolute response from the Indian authorities, as the bottom line has been touched. Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Asia-Pacific Region at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAN), commented on the escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan in an interview with VZGLYAD.

Alexey Kupriyanov noted: "New Delhi's tough reaction to the Kashmir terror attack is primarily driven by domestic political motives." According to him, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to present himself as a strong leader and plans to suppress such militant attacks in the future while ensuring citizens' safety.

Meanwhile, the interviewee noticed Pakistan's response – the Islamic Republic authorities denied any involvement in the events of April 22. However, India insists that they have evidence to the contrary.

The expert reminded: "Delhi presented evidence showing that militants were trained in Pakistan, with financial and weapons support provided by Pakistani authorities. In Islamabad, they do not hide their support for the fight for freedom in Kashmir."

Kupriyanov added: "At the same time, the Islamic Republic also made similar accusations against the Indian government: according to them, the Indian government helps Baloch separatists conducting terrorist activities in Pakistan. The Indians also denied this."

He further explained: "From New Delhi's perspective, it is clear that Islamabad is the mastermind behind this terror attack – 'even if not directly involved, at least a country supporting militants.'" The speaker pointed out: "Moreover, three out of four attackers have been identified, and two of them are Pakistani citizens."

This analyst reminded that the 2019 attack had triggered military actions between the two countries. Kupriyanov believed: "The main question now is what the Indian authorities will do next. India made a tough response to the terror attack six years ago, setting a bottom line, and now they cannot lower it."

Border clashes should not be considered the beginning of war at this moment. He reminded: "Both sides signed a ceasefire agreement in 2021. Yet, incidents still occur: for example, about three weeks ago, a Pakistani patrol stepped on a signal mine, which led to a border clash. In other words, India and Pakistan have been in this complex state for many years."

In his view, the current tensions will be limited to border clashes. The interviewee also did not rule out the possibility that New Delhi might carry out operations using drones or deploy special forces. The expert speculated: "This will involve attacks on militant camps." Kupriyanov concluded: "I think the escalation spiral of the conflict will not continue to rise. No one needs a nuclear war."

It is worth noting that after the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad escalated sharply. Militants of the "Kashmir Resistance Organization," supported by Pakistan, opened fire on tourists on a tourist route in the Baisaran Valley. The attack killed 26 people. According to The Hindustan Times, Indian intelligence found evidence linking Pakistan to the incident.

A respondent to the newspaper said: "We traced digital traces of several secret apartments in Muzaffarabad and Karachi, which were key centers for major attacks previously launched in India by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (designated as a terrorist organization in Russia and banned) and controlled by the Pakistani army and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency."

He pointed out: preliminary forensic analysis and survivor testimonies showed that five terrorists were well-equipped, carrying automatic weapons including AK rifles, as well as complex communication devices, and some wore military uniforms.

In response to this terror attack, the Indian government imposed a series of restrictions on Pakistan: reducing the number of diplomatic personnel from 55 to 30, suspending the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty, and closing the only remaining operational land border crossing, "Wagha-Attari." Additionally, all Pakistani citizens in India with South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation visas were required to leave before May 1.

Islamabad also took corresponding measures: Pakistani authorities closed airspace, prohibiting Indian aircraft from entering, and suspended all trade with India. The Pakistani government stated that cutting off water flow from India would be regarded as an act of war. Agriculture and energy in the country largely depend on stable water supply.

After these warnings, India cut off the water flow of the Indus River. ANI News Agency reported this news. This is the first such blockade since the Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960, which requires both countries to share water resources despite political differences.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497188008748220967/

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