¬ World Nuclear Association warns: Global uranium production may halve after 2030

¬ African mines increase mining efforts to meet growing nuclear fuel demand

¬ Investment gaps and disputes threaten the timely development of projects

Although global uranium production rebounded by 22% between 2022 and 2024, reaching 60,213 metric tons, it may fall by half after 2030 due to declining output from active mines.

The World Nuclear Association (WNA) made this prediction in a report released on Friday, raising concerns about future uranium supply. It is expected that uranium demand will grow to over 150,000 metric tons by 2040, driven mainly by nuclear reactors. Potential new uranium sources still exist, especially in Africa, where nearly a dozen new mines are being developed.

Zambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Niger, and Namibia will see a revival

The WNA's forecast is based on a baseline scenario of government and utility company civil nuclear energy application plans. The organization emphasized that "therefore, new projects need to be accelerated during this decade to avoid potential supply disruptions in the future." The organization also pointed out that it currently takes 10 to 20 years from the discovery of new ore deposits to the first production.

Meanwhile, Africa accounted for only 15.5% of global uranium supply in 2022, almost equal to Canada, the world's second-largest uranium producer after Kazakhstan, but Africa is continuously increasing its capacity. After the Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia was restarted by Paladin Energy in 2024, the Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi was also restarted by Lotus Resources in August 2025. The company plans to achieve an annual uranium production of 2.4 million pounds over the next decade.

Meanwhile, the continent has numerous new projects that are expected to contribute to uranium supply in the next two to three years. These include the Tiris uranium mine being developed by Aura Energy in Mauritania, targeting an annual production of 2 million pounds of uranium starting in 2027. In Niger, Global Atomic plans to launch the Dasa project before 2026, which is expected to produce 68.1 million pounds of uranium annually over 23 years. The country is also home to GoviEx's Madaouéla project, which is expected to produce 50.8 million pounds of uranium over 19 years.

GoviEx is also actively developing the Mutanga project in Zambia, which is planned to come into operation in 2028. In Namibia, the leading uranium fuel producer in Africa, the Tumas (Deep Yellow) and Etango (Bannerman Energy) projects are expected to produce at least 3 million pounds of uranium annually. Finally, Botswana can also contribute to this regional momentum through the Letlhakane project, with preliminary studies indicating an annual production of 3 million pounds over the next decade.

Promising Prospects, But Structural Challenges Remain

Although these projects can support future uranium supply and meet part of the expected demand, their recent acceleration is mainly related to market dynamics. Due to renewed interest in nuclear power, spot prices reached a historical high of $100 per pound at the beginning of 2024, prompting companies to increase investments in mineral development.

For example, this month, Lotus Resources announced the raising of $42 million to fund its operations in Malawi and Botswana. Similarly, Bannerman Energy also announced an investment of $55 million in its Etango uranium mine project in Namibia in early June. However, these ongoing investments cannot eliminate the cautious attitude taken by some participants under the current market dynamics.

For instance, Deep Yellow postponed its final investment decision on Tumas in April last year. The company stated that long-term prices have been below the reference threshold of $82.50 per pound set in its project feasibility study. According to the price assessments compiled by uranium producer Cameco, the long-term price of uranium has been hovering around $80 to $81 per pound since July 2024.

Bannerman also holds the same view and stated earlier this year that the current market conditions do not allow it to move to the next stage. In its latest quarterly report released in late July, the company maintained its position and stated that it is "implementing gatekeeping measures on project expenditures, reflecting the strengthening fundamentals of the uranium market."

These companies place great importance on the forward market, as it is their main sales channel. This market enables them to sign fixed-price contracts with energy suppliers and other customers, ensuring the profitability of their projects. Although there is little evidence that market conditions are about to improve, other challenges continue to hinder the progress of uranium projects in Africa.

Funding and stakeholder disputes

Additionally, some companies are still struggling to secure the investment needed for mine construction to reach the final investment decision. For example, Aura Energy is still trying to secure $230 million in funding for the Tiris project, while Global Atomic plans to allocate a budget of $295 million to start the construction of the Dasa project. According to existing information, the funding for the Tumas, Etango, and Mutanga projects has not yet been finalized.

In Niger, GoviEx's situation is different, as its Madaouéla mining license was revoked by the government in July 2024. A arbitration process is currently underway to resolve the dispute, adding uncertainty to the project's development. Although African supply may increase, the project still faces many challenges, which could help offset the expected decline in global production.

Source: ecofinagency

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