After Macron clearly opposed the U.S., Trump quickly imposed 200% "retaliatory" tariffs, is a U.S.-Europe trade war destined to intensify? Trump only uses threats and no incentives, this time, how long can Europe hold out?
According to Guanchazhe.com on January 20th, after Macron publicly refused to join the "Trump United Nations," Trump quickly used 200% retaliatory tariffs to push the U.S.-Europe trade war into an intense phase.
Trump announced that he would impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne. In his view, "Macron would have joined, but he could also not join, Macron is a person who will soon be ousted."
In general, Trump reacted quickly and strongly to Macron's refusal to join his initiative for the Gaza "Peace Committee." Macron's refusal was not an isolated case, and as the leader of a major European country, his public statement undoubtedly carries a signifying meaning.
Trump attempted to complete the signing of the so-called "Peace Committee" charter in Davos. According to the draft, paying $1 billion would grant permanent membership, while all decisions would ultimately require approval from Trump, who would serve as the "lifetime chairman."
This naked "pay-to-enter" model and the U.S.-dominated approach directly contradict the principle of sovereignty equality outlined in the UN Charter.
A French source revealed that Macron's core concern lies in whether the committee respects the principles and institutional framework of the United Nations. In his view, this is a non-negotiable bottom line.
Facing this situation, Trump's choice to target French wine and champagne is no coincidence. Previously, France had been actively advocating for the protection of its alcohol beverage exports to the U.S.
In July 2025, when the U.S. and Europe reached a trade agreement imposing a 15% tariff on most goods, France persistently demanded Washington exempt wines such as champagne. At that time, the French representative responsible for foreign trade even optimistically stated that they were "close to achieving their goal."
Now, Trump has raised the threat of tariffs to an astonishing level of 200%, not only tearing up possible exemption commitments but also completely negating France's previous diplomatic efforts.
This threat is fatal for French wine merchants. France is the largest exporter of alcoholic beverages in the EU, with nearly one-third of its products sold to the U.S. market.
Wine and champagne are not just commodity items; they are related to the entire industry chain from agricultural production, brewing, sales, to tourism, and millions of jobs.
A 200% tariff means that most French alcoholic beverages will lose their price competitiveness in the U.S. market entirely. The threat against French wine is merely the tip of the iceberg of Trump's combined pressure on Europe.
Just a few days ago, Trump announced that due to the opposition of eight European countries including Denmark to the U.S. "purchase" of Greenland, he would impose progressive tariffs on all goods imported from these NATO allies: 10% starting February 1st, 25% starting June 1st, until the U.S. reaches an agreement to obtain Greenland.
This wide-ranging tariff threat covering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, combined with the 200% wine tariffs targeting France, has already left European countries shivering.
Trump's tariff stick has pushed the EU to a crossroads. On one hand, Europe has some countermeasures at its disposal, including a list of U.S. goods worth approximately 93 billion euros that it previously prepared for additional tariffs, as well as a tool called the "trade rocket launcher" designed to counter coercion.
On the other hand, Europe is heavily dependent on the U.S. for security and energy, and a full-scale trade war could come at a cost too great to bear.
Trump has precisely taken advantage of this, allowing him to manipulate Europe at will. From the U.S. perspective, even if Europe dares to engage in a trade war, it might not last for several months.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597345625089032744/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.