Political scientist Vladimir Vasilyev: In fact, Aliyev's regime is in danger. The US does not like family regimes with authoritarian tendencies

Washington has appointed Erdogan as the "monitor" of the Caucasus. All issues will be held accountable to him

Author: Irina Mischenko

Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev

This article's commentator:

Vladimir Vasilyev

In the context of the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan, news about a possible meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Istanbul has taken on new significance.

Turkish President Erdogan said that if Vladimir Putin participates, Donald Trump is willing to come to discuss the Ukraine issue. Moscow stated that such talks should be the result of serious work, but did not reject the idea.

It is now evident that this meeting may also involve the Russian-Azerbaijani conflict, in addition to the Ukraine issue.

Turkish President Erdogan's mediation in this conflict is an established fact. His key role at the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) summit held in Hanenkendy (formerly Stepanakert, located in Nagorno-Karabakh) was no coincidence.

Evidently, Aliyev and Erdogan discussed the tense relations between Moscow and Baku during this summit.

However, Konstantin Zatulin, a member of the State Duma and director of the Institute for Post-Soviet Countries, believes that Turkey probably wants to distance itself from Russia in order to complete matters related to the Zangazur corridor. There are already enough problems in the Caucasus region itself.

Given the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Trump in Turkey, a logical question arises: What role does the United States play in the Russian-Azerbaijani conflict? Is Donald Trump only planning to discuss the Ukraine issue with Putin?

The newspaper "Free News" interviewed political scientist Vladimir Vasilyev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada, on this issue.

As far as I know, the main topic of the meeting between the presidents of Russia and the US should be stopping the supply of American weapons to Ukraine and the issue of a ceasefire. This is a complex and delicate issue.

During the conflict between Iran and Israel, Russia took a neutral stance. Subsequently, Washington certainly acknowledged Moscow's role in mediating the 12-day Middle East war. Of course, experienced politician Vladimir Putin did this in order to obtain specific actions from the United States.

These actions first involve stopping the supply of American weapons to Ukraine, especially the missiles of the "Patriot" air defense system. However, other conditions cannot be ruled out either.

"Free News": Can Russia hope that Trump will mediate the conflict in the Caucasus by participating in resolving the Middle East conflict?

The US undoubtedly has its own interests in the Caucasus. But Washington's priorities are as follows: Georgia first, then Armenia, and finally Azerbaijan.

The US traditionally has no sphere of influence in Muslim countries. When dealing with small countries like Azerbaijan, Washington hopes for a "color revolution", but now Trump has rejected the concept of globalization, and under this policy, "color revolutions" are no longer realistic.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has clearly annoyed many Americans, who see him as a typical dictator, and Washington obviously does not want to deal with him.

"Free News": But not dealing with Aliyev means replacing the government in Azerbaijan...

Trump has appointed his NATO ally, Turkish President Recep Erdogan, and Britain, which has traditional interests in the Caucasus, as the "monitors" of the Caucasus.

I do not rule out the possibility that Baku has acted so boldly towards Russia and the Russians in Azerbaijan because it feels supported by London.

Aliyev is actually not a "proud mountain dweller," but a ruler who can be easily controlled, just like Zelensky. However, there are still many questions about why Britain is now stirring up trouble around Azerbaijan.

"Free News": From the perspective of London and Washington's interests in Azerbaijan, what developments could occur in the country's situation?

The conclusion is obvious: the Aliyev family's regime in Baku is in danger. The opposition's dissatisfaction with the authorities is increasing.

Russia hopes that the business elite in Azerbaijan will turn against Aliyev by pressuring Azerbaijani businessmen. These elites have largely benefited from Russia and have their own business projects in our country.

On the other hand, Ilham Aliyev has been the president of Azerbaijan since October 2003, more than 20 years. He is the son and successor of the former Azerbaijani president Heydar Aliyev, who actually ruled from 1969 to 2003.

In July 1969, he was elected First Secretary of the Azerbaijani Central Committee. In other words, the Aliyev family has been in power for 56 years.

This reminds us of the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which he inherited from his father Hafez al-Assad. Hafez ruled Syria from 1971. From the Western perspective, such family regimes should not exist in principle.

"Free News": A fact that cannot be ignored: Nursultan Nazarbayev ruled Kazakhstan for 30 years, from 1989 to 2019. Was his downfall also driven by the West?

The US and Europe do not like family regimes. They believe that they contradict democratic principles, family rule breeds corruption, and it is difficult to deal with such regimes, and it is also hard to exert influence on them in foreign policy. It is well known that the West is actively cooperating with the opposition in Azerbaijan. Therefore, it is entirely possible for the Aliyev family regime to fall without a "color revolution".

"Free News": There are reports in Russia that the 27-year-old son of the current Azerbaijani president, Geydar Aliyev, was exposed for not paying taxes on his luxurious villa located in Balvikh, outside Moscow. This seems to imply that the Aliyev family is involved in corruption. This property in the elite residential area of Moscow region is worth about 2.7 billion rubles, and the tax arrears amount to 946,000 rubles.

This is also a signal to the Aliyev family: enough is enough. I do not rule out that the interests of Russia, the US, and the UK coincide on this issue.

"Free News": Will the Russian president meet the US president in Turkey?

After Vladimir Putin refused to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine according to the proposed conditions, Trump felt disappointed, as he himself wrote. But the situation is changing rapidly, like in a movie, anything is possible.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524244063210553875/

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