Experts predict that the Earth-Moon space may become the next Strait of Hormuz!

On April 28, the U.S. publication Space News published an article.

Continuing military tensions between Iran and the Strait of Hormuz likely foreshadow what could happen in the future beyond Earth—specifically, the utilization of Earth-Moon space, the region between the Earth and the Moon.

Imagine blockades, ship seizures, impacts on the global economy, and consequences for resources and markets essential to fuel, high-tech semiconductors, and production processes.

Now look up at the sky: the U.S. Space Force is establishing a dedicated procurement office to assess the strategic importance of Earth-Moon space for operations and national security.

In recent weeks, excitement has grown over NASA’s Artemis II lunar mission and the agency’s grand plans for human settlement on the Moon.

"Meanwhile, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered surges in global energy markets, reminding everyone once again how vulnerable we are geographically," said NASA Administrator Mark Feldman.

"Just as the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway, Earth-Moon space may seem vast, but it actually contains several unique and exclusive transit points through which all lunar missions must pass," Feldman said.

Like the Strait of Hormuz, Earth-Moon space is a critical strategic corridor.

"If it falls into the wrong hands, NASA’s nascent lunar ventures—and Elon Musk’s fledgling lunar enterprises, marking the first steps toward a multi-trillion-dollar space economy—could be entirely wiped out."

The answer lies in how valuable Earth-Moon space territory will become.

This depends on whether your valuation considers only current worth or includes future potential.

It's like asking whether you're interested in this year’s revenue or the expected future income expressed in net present value.

"Clearly, any current commercial value of the Moon is negligible," Garrettson told Space News. "But simultaneously, the anticipated future value—both in market terms and strategic significance—is enormous."

Not all areas within Earth-Moon space or on the Moon hold equal value.

"Regions near the poles, equator, and those rich in useful minerals all have strategic importance," Garrettson said. "Even lunar orbits and Lagrange points contain strategically significant 'terrain'."

At some point in the future, could channels to and from the lunar surface—or key lunar orbital routes—be threatened, endangering core national or economic interests?

"Absolutely," Garrettson replied. "Could such interception actions severely impact the global economy? Possibly."

Elon Musk recently discussed a possible future: "In a world where numerous orbital power stations, data centers, space station structures, and in-orbit factories are built using lunar resources, many markets would assume and rely on such growth."

Garrettson added that data centers are becoming increasingly important in the economy. Obtaining most of their infrastructure—from structural components and photovoltaic systems to thermal control systems—directly from the Moon would significantly reduce energy costs.

Similarly, Garston noted that lunar surface activities may depend on orbital infrastructure to provide positioning, navigation, timing, communications, remote sensing, and space situational awareness services.

I can easily envision a future where the Moon plays a role in the economy comparable to today’s Persian Gulf, and disruption at a concentrated location could produce effects similar to blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863712157551824/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.