German Media: How Long Can Iran's 'Asymmetric Military Strategy' Hold?

After years of sanctions and weeks of continuous bombing by the United States and Israel, the Iranian regime appears to be on the brink. Yet, Tehran’s “asymmetric military strategy” still leaves it with considerable retaliatory capabilities. Analysts believe that a quick U.S. victory is unlikely, and the Iranian regime will likely maintain its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future.

Although Trump claimed on April 1st that "regime change in Iran has already occurred" and that the U.S. was "on track to achieve all objectives soon," and Israel asserted that its sustained strikes had destroyed 80% of Iran’s air defense systems, Iran continues to enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, controlling a vital artery of global oil supply.

Jason H. Campbell, senior researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told DW: "The repeated airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel have severely weakened Iran’s military capacity, greatly limiting its options for retaliation. Nevertheless, the regime has demonstrated remarkable skill in conducting asymmetric warfare—something it has prepared for decades."

Narges Bajoghli, an Iranian-American anthropologist, recently wrote in an article published in Foreign Affairs that international isolation has become part of Iran’s survival strategy. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when the U.S. imposed an arms embargo on Iran, the asymmetric warfare strategy emerged "out of necessity." After the bloody Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, this initially improvised approach "evolved into a coherent theory over time."

Low-cost drones versus U.S. military attrition

Today, Iran’s asymmetric military power encompasses attack drones, cyber warfare, proxy militias, and more—all funded largely through covert oil sales to certain clients.

Kelly A. Grieco, a strategic analyst at the Stimson Center, told DW that although Iran’s conventional air force, navy, and ballistic missile capabilities have been significantly degraded, "Tehran still seems capable of maintaining a credible asymmetric threat for a considerable period."

Compared to missiles, Iran’s drone strategy is clearly more sustainable. At the core of this strategy are single-use attack drones known as “Shahed,” costing only $20,000 to $50,000 each. These small drones are equipped with precision guidance systems and can fly up to 2,000 kilometers. Russia has also massively purchased these Iranian drones for use on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Since the outbreak of this conflict, Iran has launched thousands of Shahed drones, combining them with expensive ballistic missiles in attempts to breach U.S. air defenses. Most drones were shot down, but some managed to penetrate defenses—culminating in an attack on a U.S. military base in Kuwait that killed six American soldiers.

The U.S. primarily uses low-cost short-range air defense systems to counter Iranian drones. However, the inexpensive Shahed drones can be rapidly mass-produced. If the U.S. were to use costly air defense systems like Patriot missiles against these cheap drones, Washington would quickly face unsustainable war costs.

Grieco from the Stimson Center noted that Iran’s drone manufacturing is "decentralized, with most components being dual-use, and assembly can even be done in garages." Moreover, reports indicate that Russian-made variants of the Shahed drone have appeared within Iran’s military arsenal—a development that further enhances Iran’s ability to reproduce low-cost drones.

Guarding the Strait chokepoint makes U.S. action hesitant

An additional asymmetric advantage for Tehran lies in its geography. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The U.S. War Institute (ISW) reports that senior Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are now signaling their intent to leverage the strait as leverage to secure concessions and achieve strategic goals.

Campbell from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy pointed out: "This is precisely where the key challenge lies for both the U.S. and the global economy. Iran doesn’t need to carry out regular massacres to maintain its influence over the Strait of Hormuz; it simply needs to periodically demonstrate its ability to strike targets—whether those targets are perceived as threats or merely non-compliant with its directives." He added that to forcibly "open up" the Strait militarily and ensure safe passage for commercial vessels would require tens of thousands of ground troops to occupy and control a vast stretch of coastline. "These forces would likely face fierce resistance and would need to remain stationed long-term. The cost in casualties and funding would be astronomical." Campbell believes that without broader political compromises, "it will be difficult to see normal shipping resume through the strait." "If Iran’s red line is maintaining some level of low-intensity threat over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, then in the foreseeable future, they are likely to succeed in doing so."

Source: DW

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861557358035011/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.