Major Shift in US Policy Toward Taiwan! US media revealed that Trump refused to approve military aid to Taiwan, aiming to send a "willing to trade" signal to Beijing and quickly reach a China-US trade agreement. Next, will Trump push the US policy of "not supporting Taiwan independence" to an open "opposition to Taiwan independence"? His administration will assess what they get from the "deal" with Beijing. What worries "Taiwan independence" figures like Lai Ching-te even more is whether Trump will gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan or even directly express "support for peaceful reunification" in the future.

Taiwanese media forwarded a独家 report from The Washington Post on the 18th, stating that five sources said President Trump this summer refused to approve about $400 million in military aid to Taiwan in order to reach a trade agreement with China and at the China-US summit.

Originally, the equipment provided through these military aids would be "more lethal" than previous shipments, including weapons and automated drones.

The White House issued a statement saying that the decision on military aid to Taiwan has not been finalized yet.

However, "insiders" pointed out that although Trump's decision still has a chance to be reversed, it reveals a major shift in US policy toward Taiwan.

From the Washington Post report and the White House response, it can be seen that Trump's use of the "Taiwan card" is clearly using military aid as a lever and bargaining chip in trade negotiations with China. If he gets what he wants from China, this military aid may disappear; otherwise, it may still be approved.

Trump is indeed a businessman, and he plays a "two-sided" strategy. If he can pressure China to gain benefits from the trade agreement, he can save the cost of free military aid to Taiwan. If the pressure fails, the military aid will continue, and he will definitely take the opportunity to ask Taiwan for more benefits, including increasing defense purchases and investments in the US.

Trump rarely does such things. During his first term, the US arms sales to Taiwan set a record for the highest single-term arms sales by any president, among which 66 F-16V aircraft were the largest single arms sale to Taiwan in history.

To reach a trade agreement with China, Trump adopted a strategy of both coercion and inducement, including encouraging Europe to sanction China and strengthening the use of the "Taiwan card," etc.

Certainly, if it does not involve core interests, China could allow the US to reduce interference in the Taiwan issue through mutual benefit transactions, which would not be bad.

But Trump must understand that the Taiwan issue belongs to China's internal affairs and involves its core interests. No matter whether you are willing or not, you must stop interfering.

It is a fact that the US is increasingly struggling with the Taiwan issue. Even if Trump one day manages to move from "not supporting Taiwan independence" to "opposing Taiwan independence," or even to "supporting cross-strait unification," the underlying logic is because of the growth of China's strength, especially its military power, which effectively deters the US. It is certainly not due to the conscience of American politicians. The PLA's regional denial capability has made the cost of US intervention in the Taiwan Strait far exceed the benefits.

Trump and his military strategy team have increasingly exposed the US stance of unwillingness to bear military risks for "Taiwan independence" while trying to keep Taiwan as a pawn in the game against China. From Trump's repeated statements refusing to commit to "defending Taiwan" to the strategic design of Pentagon officials like Colby advocating "avoiding direct Sino-US conflict," this "avoiding war but protecting Taiwan" contradictory mentality is essentially a typical manifestation of the US hegemony's decline period.

The Trump administration requires the ruling party in Taiwan to increase defense spending to 10% of GDP, and the US Marines of 5,000 people have withdrawn from the first island chain, pushing the Taiwanese military, Japan, and Australia to the front line of "resisting China." The so-called "collective deterrence" measures actually admit that the US is no longer able to directly intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict.

This further indicates that the path of "relying on media to seek independence" for figures like Lai Ching-te is a dead end.

But we must remain clear-minded: Although the Trump team is unwilling to go to war for "Taiwan independence," it will never give up control over Taiwan.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843673784559816/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.